life

Volatile Markets Put Personal Planning to the Test

The Discerning Investor by by Julie Jason
by Julie Jason
The Discerning Investor | May 6th, 2022

If you are an investor, I'm going to guess that recent stock market activity has your attention. We are talking about large daily losses, the largest since the 2020 coronavirus bear market. Just this past Thursday, May 5, the Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average) fell more than 1,100 points for a percentage decline of 3.3%.

Short-term traders can actually benefit from volatility. But most investors would rather see less volatility and long-lasting, strong uptrends. Ideal markets -- that is, stock markets that don't decline -- are nonexistent.

This is where a risk discussion comes into the equation. No matter the cause of volatility, each investor needs to accept it as part of investing in the stock market. But how? That depends on personal goals, investment experience, time horizon and the work you want your portfolio to do for you. For example, in retirement, many, if not most, investors want their investments to pay for living expenses and to increase payments as prices rise due to inflation.

The Dow has declined around 11% and the S&P 500 is down about 14% from their respective peaks at the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq is down roughly 25% from its peak on Nov. 19, 2021.

If you are a retiree who depends on his or her investments to pay bills, you might be unsettled. But you don't need to be as long as you are following a plan that incorporates the essential elements of retirement investing that fit your particular situation. The essential elements are always the same: time horizon, which is usually based on your age ("usually," since some have longer horizons tied to legacy interests); assets available to invest (creating interest and dividends to fund withdrawals is safer than selling positions, but calls for more capital); and cash flow requirements (withdrawals to pay bills).

These elements come together after reaching an understanding of volatility, risk of loss, the effect of rising inflation on your lifestyle, tax considerations and whether you understand that the most control you have in this equation is how much you spend, especially if you are on a budget and see prices rising.

Without a plan that is customized for your particular situation, difficult market periods can lead to selling your stocks with the intention of getting back in at a "better time."

If you review historical studies, you'll probably reconsider the impulse. The "Impact of being out of the market" section in the 2022 "Guide to Retirement" (tinyurl.com/5n7kup7n) by J.P. Morgan, a financial services company, is a good resource.

Looking at Jan. 1, 2002, through Dec. 31, 2021, your return would have been 9.52%. If you missed the 10 best days, your return would drop significantly to 5.33%. Miss the best 30 days? You are down to 0.43%. As the guide notes, "Seven of the best 10 days occurred within two weeks of the worst 10 days." Conclusion: Don't think you can time your reentry without a crystal ball.

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, it does provide some insight. There will always be uncertainty when it comes to the markets.

Where you are at risk is if you need to sell stock market holdings in order to pay your bills. The answer is: Make sure your plan gives you a clear understanding of how to withdraw funds to pay your retirement expenses without selling into a down market.

If you don't have a plan, make one. Reach out to a seasoned investment adviser whose expertise is retirement investing. If you are interested in a column on how to find one, email me at readers@juliejason.com.

Julie Jason, JD, LLM, a personal money manager (Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers Inc. of Stamford, Connecticut) and award-winning author, welcomes your questions/comments (readers@juliejason.com). Please visit www.juliejason.com.

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life

Financial Literacy Is Not Just for April

The Discerning Investor by by Julie Jason
by Julie Jason
The Discerning Investor | April 29th, 2022

Just because we're entering May after the close of Financial Literacy Month doesn't mean we put financial literacy education on hold for a year. If I had a vote, I would make every day Financial Literacy Day.

Whether it be investing, retirement planning, debt management or just day-to-day living, we can all benefit from becoming better at financial decision-making.

The economic challenges are numerous, with the rise of inflation and recent stock market volatility. The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high as the year opened (Jan. 3, 2022), only to drop more than 10% by Thursday, April 29. The Nasdaq Composite, which peaked on Nov. 19, 2021, also an all-time high, dropped more than 18% this year. Netflix is down about 70%; Meta (formerly Facebook) is down about 40%.

To address personal family finances, cash-flow management is key -- understand the dollars that flow into and out of the household. Tools are available. FINRA (the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), which regulates the brokerage industry, provides a sample worksheet to help examine monthly income and expenses at tinyurl.com/srjaxt5z.

There are financial challenges on the retirement front as well. According to a Bankrate survey (tinyurl.com/2p894wjb), nearly 36% of Americans said they have never had a retirement account. That means they are missing out on the value of tax-deferred growth (IRA) or more. In a 401(k), the benefit of company contributions, coupled with time, creates the optimal environment for the math of compounding to create important retirement savings.

That type of knowledge leads to more saving for retirement -- something that needs to be done. A recent report (tinyurl.com/4zf9pxbm) by T. Rowe Price, a global investment management company, found there is an estimated U.S. retirement savings gap (defined as the difference between what people saving for retirement need and what they have accumulated) of nearly $4 trillion.

Knowledge of financial needs in retirement leads to better decisions. Insured Retirement Institute's "Retirement Readiness Among Older Workers" report (https://tinyurl.com/2s3kuxs9) found only 26% of respondents correctly estimated how much annual income would be required in 10 years to maintain their standard of living. Filling that gap takes financial literacy education.

Given that data point, what can explain why studies show the vast majority of workers are confident in having enough money to retire? The Employee Benefits Research Institute's 2022 Retirement Confidence Survey (tinyurl.com/2e28wxw3) found that more than 7 in 10 workers are at least somewhat confident in having enough for a comfortable retirement.

Then again, the survey also found that nearly 4 in 10 workers (and 2 in 10 retirees) said they do not know who to go to for financial and retirement planning advice. Who do other people turn to? Thirty-five percent of workers (and 21% of retirees) said they turn to sources like family and friends, and 29% of workers (23% of retirees) said they do their own research online.

In late April, the National Financial Literacy Council released the results of a 30-question test (tinyurl.com/mse9um7x). More than 70,000 people across the U.S. took the exam, which measured the ability to earn, save and grow personal finances. While it was designed for 15- to 18-year-olds, people of any age could take it.

The results? Not good. The average score for all ages was 67.5%, with 57.5% of respondents failing to reach the passing mark of 70%.

It's one more reason to consider financial literacy education a key theme each and every day.

As a proponent of financial literacy education, I am launching the "Train the Champion" program in May, which is designed to help people have a better understanding of how a 401(k) works, and how it can be a key part of retirement planning. The Train the Champion program is part of the annual national 401(k) Champion competition that recognizes successful 401(k) participants.

Julie Jason, JD, LLM, a personal money manager (Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers Inc. of Stamford, Connecticut) and award-winning author, welcomes your questions/comments (readers@juliejason.com). Please visit www.juliejason.com.

DISTRIBUTED BY ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION

life

Evaluating the Cost of College Versus Future Earnings

The Discerning Investor by by Julie Jason
by Julie Jason
The Discerning Investor | April 22nd, 2022

How did you choose the college you attended? Would you have chosen differently if you could have compared colleges based on graduates' earnings for specific fields of study versus the cost of their education?

It turns out that you can now get this information and more through the College Scorecard, which is published by the U.S. Department of Education.

When the recent update was released, U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona commented: "The updated and enhanced College Scorecard shines a spotlight on affordability, inclusivity and outcomes, over exclusivity and colleges that leave students without good jobs and with mountains of debt" (tinyurl.com/7hczyahd).

College Scorecard is worth a visit for anyone with future college students in their family circle. Found at collegescorecard.ed.gov, the website offers several choices: You can search by school, by field of study or by selecting certain options, such as "Schools Near Me."

Choosing "Finance and Financial Management Services" as a field of study produces a long list of 915 colleges. Winnow down these results by using the menu on the left side to select variables, such as location and credential type.

At some point, you'll want to zero in on one college to explore more fully. For example, you'll learn that Georgetown, a private school located in Washington, D.C., has a graduation rate of 94%, which is the "share of students who graduated within 8 years of entering this school for the first time." Further, Georgetown is listed with an average annual "cost" of $28,909. This figure is important to understand, as it is not the same as the published "sticker price." Cost is "the average annual net price that a student who receives federal financial aid pays to cover expenses (e.g., tuition, living expenses) to attend a school. Net price is the school's cost of attendance minus any grants and scholarships received."

Scrolling down further in the listing to "Fields of Study," you can see that Finance and Financial Management Services turns out to be one of the most popular fields of study at Georgetown, ranked by student size (you can also sort top fields by highest earnings and lowest debt).

Clicking on the field of study brought up more information: Median earnings are $107,054 (the annual earnings three years after graduation of those students who received federal financial aid), median total debt after graduation is $15,500 and the monthly student loan payment is $155. The number of graduates (bachelor's degree) of the program is also listed.

Other tabs include information on typical earnings (which will tell you the percentage of students earning more than a high school graduate, based on six years after a student entered college), the student body demographics, and test scores and acceptance rate.

After reviewing one college, you'll want to compare results to others. I compared Georgetown with a university in my home state, the University of Connecticut, which is a public school located in Storrs. By clicking on the "Finance and Financial Management Services" tags for the listings for Georgetown and the University of Connecticut, I was able to create a point-by-point comparison (you can compare up to 10 schools at once by specific program or general school listing).

The comparison showed details for median earnings (three years after graduation), median total federal loan debt after graduation and the number of graduates from each program.

The ability to compare schools in this way provides information that simply was not easily available before.

Now, decisions can take into consideration potential outcomes. Not only can you see your cost of attendance (and what you might be paying in loans afterward), but also what you could potentially be earning once you graduate -- one way to define the value of a college education.

To truly give college selection some meaning, check out one more datapoint: alumni giving. What could be a better sign of happy graduates? Check out the Grateful Graduates Index created by Forbes at tinyurl.com/5p254hwb. (The index contains only private, not-for-profit institutions with at least 500 students.)

College Scorecard is worth exploring, as is alumni giving. Gone are the days when high school students choose colleges based on geographic location.

Julie Jason, JD, LLM, a personal money manager (Jackson, Grant Investment Advisers Inc. of Stamford, Connecticut) and award-winning author, welcomes your questions/comments (readers@juliejason.com). Please visit www.juliejason.com.

DISTRIBUTED BY ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION

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