A nurse in her late 30s hankers to own an Art Deco-style house in the Miami area, where she’s rented an apartment since 2019. She dreams of a three-bedroom place where she and her golden retriever would be free from fellow renters. Though she makes a good salary, her attempts to obtain a property failed during the pandemic, when demand for homes vastly outstripped supply.
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She’s still searching for the right home but now faces a dramatically different Miami market. While there’s an abundance of supply, many languishing properties are overpriced for what they offer.
“It’s nice to have choices, but it’s not nice to be expected to pay more than a house is worth. A lot of these sellers are delusional,” the nurse says.
The Miami metro area is one of the U.S. markets now surprisingly swamped with extra listings, according to research by Redfin, the national realty brokerage. In Miami this past November, nearly 64% of listings had been on the market for 60 days or longer “without going under contract -- the highest share among the top 50 metros.” Also overloaded with unsold inventory are the Florida metros of Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. In Texas, the same is true of the Austin and San Antonio areas.
A Redfin analysis indicates that the jump in supply is a pileup of unsold homes that many buyers have deemed undesirable because they seem overpriced.
“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough. I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced,” says Meme Loggins, a Redfin agent in Portland, Oregon.
“Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months,” Loggins says.
Meanwhile, given that some sellers are still demanding more than the market value of their property, caution is the right approach for buyers.
“The pandemic-era bidding wars are over. So, when evaluating the value of a particular property of interest, don’t look in the rearview mirror,” says Eric Tyson, the co-author of “Home Buying for Dummies.”
Here are a few pointers for purchasers:
-- Choose your target neighborhood market carefully.
Too many buyers let emotion dominate their decision on where to live, says Michael Knight, an Illinois-based financial adviser.
“Many people pick a neighborhood too quickly,” says Knight, who recommends you compare several areas before making your pick.
“You’ve got to do plenty of research. Have an informal talk with a few knowledgeable real estate agents in any area you’re considering. Ask them lots of hard questions,” he says.
Which neighborhoods are most likely to hold or gain value in the future? Knight says quality public schools are critical, particularly now that private schools are out of reach financially for more families.
Access to quality transit is also high on the list.
When talking to agents, ask them to show you the neighborhood’s amenities on a map. Also, ask them to assemble data for you on sales trends in the community --including the median time it takes to sell a home there.
-- Look for sellers motivated to move.
As a would-be buyer, you may feel uncomfortable about seeking out owners who must sell quickly due to extenuating circumstances. But Michael Crowley, an independent agent in Spokane, says you needn’t.
“You could actually be doing the sellers a favor in such a case,” he says.
How can you identify highly motivated sellers? One approach is to walk around the neighborhood on a weekend, striking up informal conversations with residents there.
“On a weekend, you’re likely to encounter residents out walking their dogs or taking their kids to the park. If you’re friendly and express interest in the area, they’ll likely chat openly with you and tell you neighbors they know who intend to move soon and the reasons why,” says Crowley, a past president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org).
-- Do an analysis on property values in the area where you wish to live.
Once you’ve found a good home in a solid neighborhood, you’ll want to carefully assess its true current value before formulating a bid. To help develop a realistic estimate of the worth of a place, ask your agent for statistics on properties that have sold in recent weeks -- the fresher the data, the better. Make sure this analysis takes into account any likely distress sales that have occurred lately, which often come at a sacrificial price for the sellers.
“Even if we face an economic downturn, it’s unlikely that prices will plummet in coming years. Still, it’s a very good idea to resist overpaying, even if you love the house. Should you have to walk away from one house you like, I guarantee you’ll find another one that’s an equal or better choice. All that it may take is your patience,” Crowley says.
(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)