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Taking Buying, Selling to New Heights

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | January 6th, 2023

Would you design and buy a home entirely online -- picking everything from the lot to the cabinets without ever seeing or touching them in person? Many people say they would, according to a company that's leading builders in that direction.

And when it came time to sell, what if you could spruce up your place to today's standards without spending a dime of your own money until the house sold?

These are two of the hottest trends in housing today. But in the case of purchasing a new house, buyers are light-years ahead of builders. "We are playing catch-up," says Jay McKenzie of BDX, a digital marketing company for homebuilders.

In a recent survey of 1,000 shoppers visiting NewHomeSource.com, a site where folks can search for newly built houses, 1 in 4 said they'd be happy to purchase their homes entirely online. Many would even pay their deposits, closing fees and design consultation charges online.

And why not? After all, today's consumers buy everything else online. Even automobiles: Customers look at the available inventory and pick the model, color and options. They might only visit the dealership to take a test drive and validate the paperwork.

To catch the trend, BDX is building an e-commerce program for homebuilders. In the initial phase, buyers can put down a deposit to reserve the lot of their choice. But eventually, according to McKenzie, the program will do much more.

Working with a group of builders who see the internet as the next great sales frontier, BDX has mapped out a consensus of what steps in the buying process it can bring online, and in what order.

One facet will allow visitors to a builder's website to walk through an entire model home that does not exist, eliminating the need to erect and maintain an expensive sample house. Another would create an online design center where buyers could view the myriad choices available to customize their purchases.

The online center would feature hundreds of thousands of products, all with prices listed, so you can look at flooring, lighting, appliances, countertops, cabinets and more until you find exactly what you want at a price you can afford. "Everything would be in the library," says McKenzie.

Some builders might even add furniture to their offerings. After all, many new homebuyers purchase furnishings shortly after they move in, so why not make it easier?

This so-called Dreamweaver component will not only obviate the need for costly on-site design centers. It also puts an end to what some builders call "design center divorce court," where spouses battle over selections, sometimes to the point where they throw up their hands in disgust and cancel the deal altogether.

Like they do in the auto sector, customers will make their selections through Dreamweaver from the comfort of their current residences and head to the sales office only to finalize things.

But what about selling your house? Many owners value speed above all else. They believe the quicker the place sells, the better -- less hassle, less intrusion, fewer headaches.

But in pursuing a speedy sale, they often leave money on the table. How much? That's impossible to say, since each case is different. But one source says it could be as much as six figures.

Many sellers try to maximize their gains by doing minor repairs, adding a fresh coat of paint and staging the place in order to secure a higher price. Some folks even go so far as to make major renovations such as remodeling their kitchens or finishing their basements. Those who do often base their improvements on what their real estate agents suggest will catch a buyer's eye. And many agents, in turn, seem to base their recommendations on the annual Cost vs. Value survey from Remodeling Magazine.

That study is a good first look at the localized cost of kitchen and bathroom remodels, new windows, doors and other upgrades, as well as how much they might add to a home's value. But it sometimes raises the hackles of agents, who complain it is far too specific to be useful to most sellers.

Enter presale renovation firms that offer, among other advantages, to help sellers take the guesswork out of the equation and pay for the work so there is no out-of-pocket cost to the owner. They hire the contractors to do the job and wait to be paid when the house sells. They also take over the back-office functions that often cause otherwise qualified contractors to fail.

Such companies "provide the entire back office so the contractor can pick up a hammer and do the best job possible," says Michael Alladawi, founder and CEO of Revive Real Estate.

The Compass real estate brokerage is often credited with starting this business model, now utilized by companies like Revive, Curbio and others. Revive just signed a deal with The Keyes Company, a major Florida brokerage, to help clients maximize their profits. And Curbio just signed on to a pilot program with Consumer Reports.

What kind of money are we talking about here? Revive says its clients obtain an additional $186,000 in profits when selling their upgraded homes. That's not a typo -- and it's not chicken feed, either.

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Odd Lots: More, High, Shop

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 30th, 2022

As if rising mortgage rates and high house prices aren't enough, homebuyers in the new year are going to have to contend with higher fees to obtain their credit reports. In some instances, a credit report will cost 400% more in 2023 than it did in 2022.

According to the National Consumer Reporting Association, the Fair Isaac Corporation -- aka FICO -- is raising its price less than 10% to a select group of about 46 lenders. The company is behind the FICO scores many lenders use to rate applicants' ability to make their mortgage payments.

Six lenders will pay about 200% more, and the rest will pay four times what they were.

Lenders usually pay to run a credit check and obtain a score for every loan applicant, then collect the cost from those who pass muster at the closing table.

In a memo to lenders, NCRA Executive Director Terry Clemans called the price hike "massive," saying, "This is a paradigm shift in the pricing structure for credit scores." He said that the change is being "dictated" by all three national credit bureaus -- TransUnion, Equifax and Experian -- and FICO.

One of the tallest skyscrapers in the U.S. outside of New York City is planned for downtown Austin near the University of Texas. Shovels will hit the dirt next year on the 1,035-foot, 80-story structure, which will hold 450 apartments.

Of course, the building still won't hold a candle to New York's tallest: the 1,776-foot One World Trade Center. Or, for that matter, the world's tallest: the 2,717-foot Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

But if you want to shoot for the moon, consider that a real estate brokerage based in Turks and Caicos has opened what is reputed to be the first-ever realty office in the metaverse. The office will "reside" in the virtual world of Decentraland.

To entice borrowers who fear being stuck with 7% interest rates on their mortgages, some lenders are offering to refinance loans for free if rates should fall.

But, borrower, beware: Most lenders are adding the fees for a potential refi into the cost of the original loan. So your rate could be .25% or more higher than you might find at a competing lender.

The moral, of course, is to shop around.

Savvy homebuyers can lower their mortgage costs a tad by opting for a loan that will be purchased from their lenders by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Loans acquired by the two government-sponsored enterprises can cost anywhere from an eighth of a percentage point to a half-point less than other mortgages. That's because the investors who buy the GSEs' securities believe that Uncle Sam will stand behind any mortgage that goes in default.

And starting next year, buyers in dozens of high-cost markets throughout the country can borrow up to a whopping $1,089,300 and still catch the price break. It's the first time the so-called conforming loan limit has passed the million-dollar threshold.

Virginia alone holds 18 high-cost counties, while neighboring Maryland has five. New Jersey and New York contain 12 and 10 such counties, respectively. Even Idaho and West Virginia have one high-cost county each.

The limit for most of the rest of the country will be $726,200 in 2023, which is a 12.1% increase from this year's ceiling of $647,200.

Meanwhile, the limit for government-insured FHA loans in high-cost markets also will be $1,089,300 in 2023, while the "floor" will be $472,030. Government-backed mortgages are often considered loans of last resort for buyers who are unable to qualify for conventional financing.

Finally, according to the Census Bureau, a record 111,000 new homes have been permitted but not yet started as builders face high mortgage rates and diminishing demand. That's about double the normal level, housing blogger Bill McBride points out.

Builders are also losing deals at an alarming rate as buyers cancel their contracts. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, 1 in 4 sales were lost in October. And at the same time, the level of houses currently under construction is at an elevated level, with nearly a six-month supply underway at the current sales rate.

No wonder many builders are offering incentives and/or cutting prices to attract buyers. In November, the National Association of Home Builders reports, over 3 out of 5 builders were offering to buy-down mortgage rates, pay all or some closing costs or hand out free options and upgrades. And more than a third were slashing prices.

But NAHB Economist Paul Emrath reminds us that those numbers are a far cry from the lengths builders went to during the 2007-08 financial crisis. In October '07, nearly 60% of all builders had trimmed their prices by an average of 7%. So far this year, the typical reduction is 5%.

Incentives, on the other hand, have always been part of the sales strategy when the market softens. During the 2007-08 crisis, well over 70% of builders offered one or more freebies. In December '08, a whopping 86% were giving something away.

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Odd Lots: Suits, Slow, Stats

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 23rd, 2022

Buyer's remorse is likely to take on a more sinister turn in the coming months, as people who purchased their houses at the top of the market take out their frustrations on their real estate agents.

Historical precedent suggests that as housing values stagnate and then fall, the "last batch" of buyers often become resentful -- so much so that they may lash out at their agents or other professionals involved in the process, according to Victor Insurance Managers. The firm, a major vendor of errors-and-omissions policies to agents and brokers, says that realty companies should expect to see a jump in the number of lawsuits filed against their agents in the coming months. When tempers rise, matters ordinarily considered minor inconveniences could become major issues to be litigated.

As the firm points out, agents who are sued in these market conditions face no greater liability of being found at fault than they would any other time. But that doesn't lessen the ordeal of defending themselves in a court of law.

In today's new-home market, mortgage rate buy-downs, upgrades, and cash to cover closing costs are already the norm. Some builders are even offering cash bonuses or higher commissions to agents who bring buyers to their doors.

Now, price cuts are imminent -- or already taking place, says Ben Caballero of HomesUSA. The Dallas-based brokerage lists new homes for sale for more than 60 builders in the four major Texas markets. "Builders offer the incentives and bonuses before lowering prices," Caballero told me. "They are now lowering prices."

Caballero knows a bit about selling new houses: He is a three-time Guinness World Record holder for "most annual home sale transactions through MLS by an individual sell-side real estate agent." He is also the only agent to exceed $1 billion in annual sales, a feat he first achieved in 2015, then repeated each year through 2018 -- when he notched more than $2 billion.

The New American Home, that annual homage to the latest building products and construction techniques, is struggling towards the finish line.

The showpiece is rolled out annually at the huge National Association of Home Builders convention, the International Builders' Show. The 2023 model is set to make its debut at the show in January. But the home's builder is dealing with the same supply chain issues that every other builder is confronting.

In fact, the project stood practically still for more than three months during the spring while waiting for products to arrive.

"Our biggest challenge has been figuring out when each of the products will show up so we know when to schedule our labor," said lead architect Michael Gardner. "All of our (subcontractors) have been so busy, and because delays have become so common, no one will commit to a specific date until the product is on site."

As the flagship exhibit of the IBS, the house has a hard deadline for completion. So to stay on top of the tight installation schedules, Gardner says his team is following up with vendors weekly, if not daily.

"It's now gotten to the point where it seems like we're more of a logistics company than a construction company," the architect said.

Despite the significant delays, the project is on track for completion this month.

The 7,575-square-foot demonstration house features five bedrooms, seven baths, a spa, a game room, a private office, a state-of-the-art outdoor kitchen, a rooftop deck and a two-tier pool.

Here are some random statistics of note:

-- Nearly 60,000 sales fell through in October, according to the Redfin brokerage firm. That's equal to a record 17.9% of homes that were under contract.

-- Some 37% of small real estate firms couldn't make their rents in October, according to Alignable, an online referral network. Frightening, to be sure, but even more chilling is the fact that 37% is the national average among all small businesses.

-- Small companies may still be the backbone of the homebuilding industry, but they are losing market share to regional and national outfits. Those larger companies increased their market share to a whopping 57.5% in 2021, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

In a change two years in the making, the Federal Housing Administration is now allowing borrowers using FHA-insured financing to secure flood insurance policies from private insurers.

The FHA requires that properties in Federal Emergency Management Agency-designated Special Flood Hazard Areas have flood insurance. But flood coverage is often advisable beyond those areas.

The shift now gives FHA-borrowers an option: They can obtain flood coverage in the private market or through the National Flood Insurance Program. Private policies are usually, but not always, less expensive than those offered through the federal program, and often provide better coverage.

"The new rule is a victory for consumers, for choice, and for flood coverage that will protect more borrowers and property from the No. 1 natural disaster," said Kenny Parcell, president of the National Association of Realtors.

Accepting private policies shifts the risk from Uncle Sam to the private sector. But here's the rub: Private companies must align their policies with NFIP requirements, or else their policies will be rejected, even if they are acceptable for other federally backed loans.

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