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Sales Fees Don't Always Jibe With Price

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 29th, 2022

At the same commission rate, real estate agents who sell an $800,000 house receive eight times the compensation of those who sell a $100,000 home. But does it take eight times the effort to sell the more expensive property?

Does it cost agents more to market a higher-priced home? Is it more difficult to find buyers who can afford such a place? Is the sales process more time-consuming? Is there more paperwork involved? More rules and regulations that must be followed?

I ask because a new report from the Consumer Federation of America questions the relationship between home prices and commissions.

Intuitively, you'd think that the commission charged on higher-priced houses would be lower, if only because agents would earn much more money. At 6% in the above example, the agent selling the $800,000 house would earn $48,000, while the one selling the $100,000 house would make just $6,000.

But that's not always the case, according to the CFA, which found "no consistent relationship" between prices and commission rates.

Previous research found a "tendency" for commission rates to slide as home prices increase. But in the CFA's study of the rates charged in 17,800 recent sales, the sellers of more expensive houses in eight cities were charged higher rates, while those in eight other markets paid lower commissions. In 15 other places, rates were either uniform or fairly similar across the price spectrum.

Former Department of Housing and Urban Development official John Weicher once said commission rates are "generally expected" to vary inversely with housing prices, "on the basis that the effort needed to sell a home is not proportional to the price of the house."

But that was in 2006. The market has changed mightily since then. Buyers used to hop in an agent's car to find a home that fit their needs. Now, they do the lion's share of their search online -- so ostensibly, agents do less work.

Some agents argue they must work harder, and at a greater cost, to sell a higher-priced property. Expensive places tend to be larger, requiring more inspections, property clarifications and "making sure the buyer and seller are happy," Northern Virginia broker John Marcario told the CFA.

But others disagree. "I don't think the cost to sell a home (here) in Massachusetts for $100,000 vs. $4 million is any different," said 40-year realty veteran Tom Wemett of Homebuyer Advisors. "What is different is the profit."

"Generally speaking, an $800,000 house is no more work than a $300,000 house," added Derek Eisenberg of the Continental Real Estate Group in New Jersey.

There are market conditions to consider, of course. In extremely high-priced places like California, where $800,000 houses "sell like popcorn," it's likely more difficult to sell a $100,000 house, consultant Marilyn Wilson of the WAV Group told me.

That may be so. The CFA found that in Bakersfield, California, commissions on two-thirds of the houses that sold at $450,000 or above were higher than on those that sold for $300,000 or less. Yet in San Diego, commission rates hardly varied, no matter the price.

Another anomaly might be whether it's a buyer's or seller's market. Danetha Doe, an economist with Clever Real Estate, told the CFA that when the market favors buyers, "it takes more effort" to sell a pricier place.

Another consideration is the type of property. According to Eisenberg, more work is involved in the sale of condominiums, houses governed by homeowners' associations and houses where the owner is in financial distress. Other factors are the property's condition and location.

All that said, I threw the question out to some agents with whom I am in regular contact. Here's a sample of their responses:

-- "The amount of work required to sell a home is not distinguished by price," said Robert Goldman of Michael Saunders & Co. in Venice, Florida, but rather by "five factors: condition, location, staging, marketing and price."

-- Chris Carter of Waterfront Realty in Naples, Florida, says he expends the same amount of effort, no matter the price. But he points out that when their cut is larger, some agents are likely to spend more on marketing materials: better photos, maybe including drone shots; full-color printed postcards; and single-property websites. Then again, when the market is hot enough, agents may do little more than list the house and wait for offers.

-- Lisa Abrams of Berkshire Hathaway, who is licensed in Florida and in the D.C. area, says that her effort doesn't change with the price point, but that she does find it more difficult to sell cheaper houses. "Typically," she told me, "buyers in the lower price points tend to have financing issues and down payment issues."

Carter said the same: Buyers of expensive properties tend to be "more sophisticated and experienced" and "don't require as much hand-holding."

-- Charles Hunt of the New York-based Hunt Real Estate Group agreed, adding, "Selling a less expensive home can have more steps due to financing and inspection contingencies that may not exist on a more expensive property."

Finally, a word on commissions: Both sellers and buyers need to pay better attention to what each side is paying, as well as how and why. Don't be so preoccupied with the selling price and the timing of closing that you don't ask about commissions.

Discuss the rate with your agent before signing anything. Ask whether they'd be open to a lower fee or to sharing a decrease with the other side's agent. And in the 41 states that permit rebates, ask whether your agent is willing to give back part of the commission at closing.

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Failed Deals Could Spell Bargains

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 22nd, 2022

The tea leaves are lining up in favor of homebuyers who can afford today's higher mortgage rates.

Multiple sources indicate that more and more people are canceling their home purchases because rates have moved beyond their reach -- a situation that puts "sold" houses back on the market in droves. And the phenomenon is happening in both new construction and resale.

"A lot more new-home buyers (are) canceling," reports Rick Palacios Jr., research director at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. And a source at the Redfin brokerage says sales of existing homes "are falling through at (the) fastest clip since 2020," bringing the housing market to its knees, if only temporarily.

Consequently, if you lost out on a house in a bidding war, check back with the seller. It may be available again -- possibly at a lower price.

A house is never really sold until the deal is closed and all the papers are signed. Any time before closing, buyers can walk, though they may have to pay a penalty. And if they back out, the place has to be put back on the market.

In the resale sector, some buyers are simply walking away. But others are backing out in hopes of obtaining a better deal on the same property. "The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate," says Redfin's Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr.

In the case of a new home under construction, builders are likely to hold the line on the asking price because they've already absorbed the building costs. Any discount is likely to be minimal, possibly in the form of incentives or upgrades.

There are no such restrictions if it's a resale. Obviously, sellers can maintain their asking price if they choose. But with housing inventory creeping upward, the more likely scenario is for sellers who lose a sale to relist their places for somewhat less than before.

Take Sarasota County, Florida. According to data from the local multiple listing service, in mid-July, the median list price of contracts canceled during the previous seven-day period was $307,350. But when those houses were put back on the market, the median list price had dropped to $273,670.

According to Altos Research, housing prices have likely peaked for the year. Meanwhile, the number of houses on the market is 31% higher than this time last year, and they're taking longer to sell.

"The market is changing rapidly," says Altos founder Mike Simonsen. "When demand cools, homes get fewer offers -- or no offers -- and contracts start to fall through."

Relists, Simonsen points out, "are now at their highest level (in) recent years, and they're ticking up every week."

Other market forces are at work when a contract is scuttled on a new house for which construction hasn't started. Here, the builder can do just about anything they want: Raise the price, keep it the same or lower it. But with traffic down and few new buyers in sight, builders are most likely to go lower, especially since construction costs are falling.

Builders always experience cancellations: People's circumstances change, or perhaps they are unable to secure financing. But now walkaways are "extremely high," a Phoenix builder told the Burns consulting firm in its latest survey.

Most builders don't reveal their cancellation rates, but publicly owned companies do in their quarterly reports to stockholders. At this writing, only a few reports have been filed, but they point to better deals ahead.

The cancellation rate at KB Home was 17% at the end of May, compared to 10% for all of 2021, according to housing blogger Bill McBride. At the end of April, Hovnanian's rate was also 17% (compared to 15% a year ago), and Lennar's was at 11.8%.

At the same time, construction and labor costs are falling, which means builders can lower their prices and still maintain their margins. And they are. Here's what some builders told the Burns firm in its most recent survey:

"Trades are more willing to negotiate pricing since (the) market has adjusted significantly (in the) past 60 days," said an Austin, Texas, builder. A colleague from once red-hot Boise agreed: "Sales have slowed tremendously. Builders are dropping prices and halting new starts. ... (We're) expecting 15% to 20% reduction in most costs."

It's a similar story in Houston, where one builder reported that building product costs are down in almost every category, enabling him to use the savings for "buying down mortgage rates to get buyers qualified." And a builder in Kennewick, Washington, confided that sales have been so slow of late that his company is "repricing our houses to try and find the new market."

If builders haven't started reacting to the rising number of dropouts -- as well as the general falloff in sales -- they almost certainly will soon.

"We've reached the top in pricing," a Southern California builder told Burns. And a counterpart in St. Louis expects to see "lower costs coming in the near future, as demand cools and manufacturers and trades see backlogs shrinking."

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Act Quickly to Avoid Foreclosure

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 15th, 2022

Experts say that a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely to happen now, if only because lending standards are much tighter than they were prior to the Great Recession. Still, foreclosures are starting to tick upward.

ATTOM, a property data firm, says that in May, there were fewer than 31,000 houses nationwide with foreclosure filings -- that is, houses with default notices, houses scheduled for the auction block or ones already repossessed by lenders. That's up a scant 1% from April -- but it's 185% more than in May last year.

And while the share of borrowers at any stage of delinquency was at an all-time low in the first quarter, CoreLogic reports that more than a third of delinquent mortgages are six or more months past due.

Fortunately, if you are among those borrowers who cannot make their payments, there are plenty of options available: from obtaining permission from your lender to miss a few payments until you get back on your feet to selling your place before the gavel slams down.

But you have to move quickly. Waiting too long could cost you, especially since housing values may soon start to recede in some spots. Even if you think your financial problem will only last a few months, don't hesitate.

Your first step is to call the loan servicer: the company that collects your payments, pays your taxes and insurance, and otherwise administers your mortgage. Depending on your situation, the servicer can offer you several choices. Each case is different, but usually you'll be given one of four options:

-- Temporarily suspend or reduce your monthly mortgage payments for a specified period of time until you believe you'll be able to start paying again.

-- Pay any past-due amount by adding a percentage of it to your regular payment over a specified period until your mortgage becomes current.

-- Defer past-due amounts to the end of your loan term and keep your monthly principal and interest payment the same.

-- Change your original loan terms, perhaps the payment amount, the loan term or even the interest rates.

Each of these alternatives has its benefits, but all allow you to remain in your home and avoid foreclosure. However, you still have to qualify. If the servicer determines there's just no way you can dig out, no help will be forthcoming.

Another choice would be to refinance. But with loan rates blasting through the 6% level recently, that alternative is basically off the table. According to data firm Black Knight, refinancing currently makes sense for fewer than 500,000 homeowners nationwide -- the lowest number in more than two decades.

All is not lost, though, because at this point, you can still sell your house -- perhaps even at a profit, depending on when you bought the place. Two key points here:

-- House prices aren't falling yet, but they also aren't increasing at the breakneck speed of the recent past. Some anxious sellers are cutting their asking prices, but for the most part, they're eating into their appreciation -- not dropping below what they originally paid for their places.

Of course, if you just recently bought your house, there probably hasn't been a lot of appreciation, and you have less paper profit to dig into. Which takes us to the next point:

-- Foreclosure is not an event; it's a process. Depending on where you live, it could take a few months for the sheriff to knock on your door -- or even years. That alone gives you a little more breathing room.

You can sell during the foreclosure process, right up to the point when the judge's gavel slams down, but it's far better to do so before the process starts. Whatever you do, don't leak the fact that you are having trouble making your payments. Be honest with your agent, to be sure, but otherwise, keep the situation under your hat. If a would-be buyer gets wind, they're likely to assume you're desperate and lowball their offer.

If you manage to sell at a profit, you simply pay your lender what you owe, pocket the rest and move on. But if you sell at a loss and cannot pay your lender in full with the proceeds, you'll have to persuade the lender to approve what's known officially as a pre-foreclosure sale.

Gaining the servicer's blessing for a short sale can sometimes take weeks, if not months. You have to prove you have a long-term hardship; that you have been unable to sell at a price that would cover what you owe; that you are in, or about to go into, foreclosure; and that you can no longer afford to live there. You also will have to fill out what may seem like mountains of paperwork.

If your lender agrees to your short sale, you land a buyer and the sale closes, the proceeds will go to the servicer and you will be issued a deficiency waiver that relieves you of your responsibility for any remaining balance.

Your credit score will suffer. But otherwise, you will be free to move on.

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