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Buying Tips in a Tight Market

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | August 26th, 2020

Many buyers who sat out the spring market are now regretting it. That’s because prices have risen since the COVID-19 outbreak began in earnest last March. And there’s still a great deal of pent-up demand for homeownership among young adults.

Of course, those who’ve lost their jobs due to the pandemic are in no position to make a purchase anytime soon. But many who are qualified to buy remain upbeat about the future and eager to move forward before they’re priced out of the market. Yet, at the same time, they see clouds on the horizon as they observe family members already falling behind on their mortgage payments.

The job-related fears of many Americans are grounded in reality, according to Frank Nothaft, the chief economist at CoreLogic (corelogic.com), an economic think tank that tracks housing markets throughout the country.

“The national unemployment rate soared from a 50-year low in February 2020 to an 80-year high in April. With the sudden loss of income, many homeowners are struggling to stay on top of their mortgage loans, resulting in a jump in non-payment,” Nothaft says.

He’s predicting “meaningful spikes” in mortgage delinquencies unless federal and state governments step in to provide further relief to financially troubled households.

Despite these economic warning signs, would-be homeowners who retain solid jobs and are therefore qualified to take out a mortgage resist the suggestion they put their buying plans on hold.

“People with young children are especially unhappy about waiting to get into a place of their own. They’re sick and tired of living in rental quarters where their landlord has so much control over their lives,” says Mark Nash, a real estate analyst and author of “1001 Tips for Buying and Selling a Home.”

Nash considers it ironic that in the midst of a recession, available homes are in short supply, thereby pushing up prices and sometimes even leading to multiple bidding situations.

“This isn’t like the period right after the Great Recession in 2008 when home prices dropped dramatically and bargains were everywhere. Current buyers have little hope of snagging a tremendous deal on a distressed property,” says Nash, a longtime real estate broker.

Indeed, a recent report from Zillow, the national real estate company, says home price gains are now accelerating. As of mid-August, the median list price in the United States was up 7.3% year over year.

In such a competitive environment, there’s relatively little that income-constrained buyers can do to maximize their odds of acquiring an affordable property. But real estate specialists offer these few suggestions for those who’ve identified a home they’d like to own:

-- Inform yourself on local property values before you bid.

Eve Alexander, a veteran real estate broker who works solely with buyers, says buyers need context on prevailing values to make certain they don’t offer too much.

“For comparisons, try to identify five to 10 comparable homes that have sold recently in the area where you’re looking,” Alexander says.

If you’re seeking to buy in a neighborhood with widely varied properties, it’s helpful to compare the homes on your list on a price-per-square-foot basis. Then adjust for differences in home features.

After estimating the current market value of the place you wish to buy, it’s time to decide how aggressive an offer you want to make. Alexander says that will depend on how enamored you are with the home.

“You won’t want to push the limits if you’ve fallen in love with the property and feel it’s a ‘do or die’ situation,” she says.

On the other hand, you might choose to make a lower offer if there are other available homes in the area that would meet your needs equally well.

-- Ask your agent to query the listing agent.

When owners have an urgent need to sell, it’s normally against their interest for that information to be broadcast to the world. Even so, Alexander says many listing agents will readily divulge such client information in response to questions.

“You’d be amazed how many listing agents will tell all to a buyer’s agent,” she says.

Another way that buyers can gauge the sellers’ level of motivation is to ask nearby neighbors. Alexander recommends buyers pick a weekend time to walk through the community, chatting with a few residents about the pros and cons of living there. In the course of the conversation, they’ll likely tell you what they know about why nearby homes are for sale.

-- Try to determine the seller’s equity position.

Prior to making a bid, it’s wise to inform yourself on the sellers’ ownership stake. Those with more equity have more potential room for compromise.

“What you’re looking for are insights into the mindset of the sellers,” Alexander says.

One source of clues on the owners’ equity position can be found by searching local government land records. At the minimum, these records -- typically available online or through your agent’s database -- should tell you when the current owners purchased the property and the original price they paid.

“If the sellers bought the house a couple of decades ago and haven’t refinanced, they should have a lot more equity, which means there could be more give on price,” Alexander says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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COVID Home-Selling Tips

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | August 19th, 2020

If you’re like millions of Americans, your life has been profoundly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. But perhaps you’re different from some of the pessimists who abound nowadays. Maybe you perceive positive possibilities in the current situation -- especially when it comes to real estate.

Suppose you’ve long planned to sell your home. If so, would now be a favorable time to put your place on the market? That depends on where you live and your level of equity, housing specialists say.

For the time being at least, there are plenty of indicators supporting the view that this is still a sellers’ market in many communities, says Jeff Tucker, an economist for Zillow, the national real estate company.

Tucker notes that the availability of near-record-low mortgage rates is helping fuel a brisk pace of home sales this summer. In many parts of the country, buyers are compelled to compete over fewer and fewer listings.

“The flow of new listings has recovered somewhat, but not fast enough to replace all the recent sales, so inventory continues to plumb new record lows,” Tucker says.

At the same time, for fundamental economic and demographic reasons, the shortage of available homes continues to push up prices, despite the reality that the overall economy remains in recession.

In one very positive sign for sellers, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org), reports that prices are still rising in a stunning 96% of U.S. metro areas.

“Home prices have held up well due to a combination of very strong demand for housing and a limited supply of homes for sale,” Yun says.

Yet, as Tucker points out, there are several factors that explain why many would-be sellers have been staying on the sidelines during the outbreak.

“There’s no single reason sellers have been slow to return. But some possibilities include reluctance to have strangers tour their home; concerns about difficulty getting their next home; and an assumption that they couldn’t sell for a high price now,” Tucker says.

Obviously, the decision on whether to move during the pandemic is a personal choice, especially for households susceptible to serious consequences from the virus. Yet those in lower-risk categories might consider this an opportune time to make a housing transition.

“Granted, it’s a lot less convenient selling a place when an infectious disease is spreading. But the real estate industry is doing a terrific job with modified showings and virtual tours. That means for most sellers, showings shouldn’t present much of a barrier,” says Mark Nash, a longtime broker and author of “1001 Tips for Buying and Selling a Home.”

But as Nash notes, any decision on the timing of a home sale depends in large measure on your financial position and the realities of your neighborhood market. He encourages would-be sellers to investigate these factors before finalizing any moving plans.

Here are a couple of pointers for sellers:

-- Get a grip on your home’s value.

As always, a minority of real estate agents might try to flatter you into hiring them by suggesting your property is worth more than it truly is, says Dorcas Helfant, a Coldwell Banker broker-owner and former president of the National Association of Realtors.

“You don’t want a fantasyland answer about your home’s value. You want your agent to be brutally honest -- to give you ‘tough love’ when it comes to the value and condition of your place,” she says.

One way to increase the odds of finding a realistic listing agent is to interview at least three prospects before making your selection. Ask each to do a “comparative market analysis” on your property, using recent data from like home sales in your area as a basis to set the appropriate list price.

“Think twice about hiring any agent who comes in with a proposed list price way above the other agents you’ve surveyed,” Helfant says.

-- Crunch statistics to assess your sales prospects.

Besides the location and condition of your home, another factor could strongly influence how much cash you’d receive if you were to sell: neighborhood competition.

“The inventory of rival homes available in your immediate area has a huge influence on local property values,” Nash says. By “inventory,” he means the supply of unsold properties now on the market.

For example, if there’s a three-month supply of unsold homes currently for sale in your market, you can expect to wait longer (and receive less in proceeds) than if there’s a one-month supply.

Nash recommends you ask your listing agent for a graph showing fluctuations in inventory levels for your community over the last 12 months. Also, ask for a similar chart showing what percentage of list price, on average, sellers have been receiving.

“If your home is priced right from the outset, it should fetch at least 95% to 100% of your list price -- or even more than the list price. What’s more, this gap should be narrowing rather than widening,” Nash says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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Making the Right Home Purchase in Changing Times

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | August 12th, 2020

Due in large measure to the pandemic, Americans’ preferences on where and how to live are clearly evolving, according to real estate specialists.

“We are at the dawn of a great reshuffling,” says Rich Barton, CEO of Zillow, which tracks housing markets throughout the country.

The living patterns that have taken hold as a result of COVID-19 are persuading millions of people -- those who can afford to buy in an uncertain economy -- to consider moves to larger and less urban spaces. With so much time now spent at home, many have recast their priorities.

“Home offices are in high demand. Backyards are more desirable than parks and gyms. Work-from-home policies are eliminating the commute for many. There’s an endless list of considerations,” Barton says.

Take the case of an engaged couple in their early 30s who work for New York-based finance firms. Last year, they intended to make their first purchase a city condo. But after discovering the delights of working remotely in an exurban location, they now expect their initial property to be a spacious suburban house with two home offices and property sizable enough for an in-ground pool.

Tom Early, a veteran real estate broker, doesn’t know the engaged couple in this true story. But he says they’re typical of many wannabe homeowners, whose priorities are now in flux after months working from home.

“A lot of these folks are even surprising themselves about their changes of heart. Last year they wanted city, city, city. But many months working remotely have altered their thinking on the best way to live,” says Early, a past president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (naeba.org).

Besides their enthusiasm for the freedom that comes with working remotely, many buyers are also excited by the chance to get a more spacious house for their money, due to near-record-low mortgage rates.

“People who didn’t imagine ever affording (a) 4,000-square-foot house with a gigantic kitchen can now picture that -- assuming they grab a low-cost mortgage and head miles outside the city,” Early says.

Stacy Berman, a longtime agent affiliated with the Residential Real Estate Council (crs.com), understands the zeal of young adults with solid jobs who are now considering a move to a less-populated town or outlying area. Like the engaged couple, many believe they’ll be allowed to continue working from home indefinitely.

But Berman urges such would-be buyers to project how their lives -- and priorities -- could well change after the pandemic and whether they will indeed always work from home full-time.

“If you’re thinking of moving amidst all the current upheaval, this shouldn’t be a one-year plan. You want to stay in the new house for a minimum of five years,” says Berman, noting that an outlying community that might seem appealing during the pandemic could have less allure once the lockdown era is over.

“People planning to move need to avoid making a rash decision about their future lifestyle. After COVID-19, ask yourself if you’d rather live where you can walk to a Starbucks or where everything is car-dependent and there’s no public transit,” she says.

Making a careless home-buying choice could also carry financial risks, particularly if you decide to move again in just a few years. Home prices are still ascending in many areas, but there are no guarantees on appreciation, says Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist and Nobel laureate well known for his housing valuation forecasts.

Shiller isn’t advising against a home purchase in the current market. Yet he cautions buyers against the assumption that “the boom times for housing will go on forever.”

Here are a couple of pointers for buyers:

-- Check out the economic trends for areas you’re considering.

National economic predictions are of less value to buyers than local information. To determine which areas have the best prospects for appreciation, start with a regional map. On this, pinpoint major employers, such as corporate headquarters and military bases, where jobs are expanding. Also locate communities with well-ranked public schools and popular public transit lines, including light rail systems.

“Meaningful local information, which you can find on the internet, helps you spot places where prices should rise in the years ahead,” says Eric Tyson, a personal finance expert and author of “Let’s Get Real About Money!”

-- Analyze neighborhood property values before you bid.

Researching relative property values before you put in an offer is always critically important.

“You and your agent should attempt to find nearby homes that have sold recently, ideally within the last six months,” Early says.

But data on comparable sales won’t give you the whole story. These days, you also need numbers to track the direction of the market -- whether prices are heading up, down or sideways.

Ask your agent to give you data on the median price of a home sold this past month versus the month prior. Also ask for median price comparisons on an annual and yearly basis. These statistics should give you a good feel for the trend.

“Taking advantage of wonderfully low mortgage rates is smart. But acting without a lot of forethought is not,” Early says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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