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Should Homebuyers Play the Waiting Game?

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | April 8th, 2020

As the country grapples with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of Americans are losing their jobs. Yet many more continue to work uninterrupted.

Among the securely employed are numerous young adults who’d planned to buy a first home this spring but are now torn between proceeding and postponing. One reason is that housing analysts themselves are unsure how real estate will play out during the balance of 2020 and beyond.

“We’re still in the early stages of understanding exactly what effects the coronavirus will have on the housing market in the long term,” says Alexander Casey, a senior policy analyst for Zillow, the data-driven real estate company.

Arlen Olberding, a Colorado-based financial planner who counts many aspiring homeowners among his clients, encourages those well positioned financially to go forth with the purchase of a house that’s a near perfect match for their desires, particularly if they have very narrowly defined tastes.

Still, he’s convinced that many wannabe first-time owners who have yet to find the home of their dreams would be well advised to delay their full search for three to six months, on the assumption they could get a better deal after the worst of the COVID-19 crisis has passed.

In the midst of the outbreak, countless would-be home sellers have withdrawn from the market due to health concerns. Though they could go through the selling process with video tours led by their listing agent, they prefer the convenience and perceived safety of waiting for a more normal market, perhaps as early as this autumn.

The assumption of these postponing sellers is that their property will fetch as strong a price later this year as it would have this spring. Many housing analysts support this view on the basis that property remains in very short supply, particularly for entry-level homes in popular, close-in neighborhoods. They assume that buyer demand will bounce back after the worst of the outbreak has cleared.

But other analysts are skeptical. These include Richard Curtin, the renowned economist who tracks consumer sentiment through regular surveys for the University of Michigan. He argues that consumer demand for big-ticket items, including homes, will lessen for the remainder of the year and that even many with secure jobs will back off in coming months.

“The post-coronavirus economy will not immediately return to the discretionary spending patterns that prevailed just a few months ago at the end of the longest expansion on record,” Curtin says.

Olberding isn’t predicting that home values will drop sharply during the latter part of 2020. But he does anticipate that as the months pass, sellers will become more motivated and open to negotiation. He also anticipates that mortgage rates could fall in coming months.

Here are a few pointers for first-time buyers who’ve decided to postpone:

-- Use the time to amass more funds for your down payment.

Olberding says that for those whose finances remain sound, this is an excellent time to fortify their down payment accounts with extra savings.

“If you can put down 10% rather than 5% on your mortgage, you’ll reduce your monthly payments going forward. You might even qualify for a better interest rate,” he says.

-- Crunch numbers to set a realistic housing budget.

Dale Robyn Siegel, a home loan broker and author of “The New Rules for Mortgages,” says that at a time of economic uncertainty, it’s especially smart for buyers to make a realistic assessment of their living costs.

“I always tell clients that before they choose a property and take out a mortgage, they should run the numbers and make sure they stay skinny on their overhead,” she says.

Your core living costs are expenses you must meet on a regular basis. Among other things, they include outlays for food, transportation, child care and insurance coverage. They may also include any financial commitments you’ve made to a religious institution or charity. Together, these expenses constitute what many in the financial field call your “nut.”

“Prior to making any major financial decision, your first task is to ensure you’ll have the funds to meet your nut every month,” Siegel says.

How should you go about determining your nut? Olberding advises buyers to take a step-by-step approach. As a first step, he says you should carefully review your checking and credit card statements to see where your money has gone in the past six to 12 months.

“When it comes to spending, people are creatures of habit. Because of that, looking back at your personal spending history should help you project your future spending,” he says.

Once you’ve categorized your past spending, it’s time to comb through the columns, determining which among your non-mandatory costs you’d be willing to trim in order to afford the sort of house you wish to purchase.

Once you’ve calculated your living costs, along with quality-of-life choices you consider essential, it’s time to compare this monthly total to the net income you’re bringing in. The difference should be the funds available to cover your mortgage expenses and future home upkeep and utility costs.

-- Realize that it’s still possible to qualify for too large a mortgage.

Given rising levels of unemployment, the federal government is now engaged in an unprecedented level of deficit spending, and all financial institutions are more wary. Meanwhile, lenders are looking ever more closely at the quality of borrowers’ credit. So Siegel recommends that buyers who are postponing their home search use the waiting time to repair any blemishes that appear on their credit reports.

Yet ironically, despite more stringent lending standards, she says many who can jump over lender approval hurdles are still able to borrow more than they reasonably should. Why? Because the full extent of their living costs isn’t apparent to the lender who reviews their file.

For example, in assessing your affordability range, a lender won’t take into account private debts, like the regular payments you owe your mother who advanced you the money to buy a new car.

“If an expense doesn’t show up on your credit report or tax returns, the lender often doesn’t know about it,” Siegel says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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Conquering the Homebuying Jitters

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | April 1st, 2020

A medical researcher married to a landscape designer long fantasized about moving from their cramped city townhouse to an exurban place with extra acreage.

A few days ago, when they finally found the perfect home, they put in an immediate offer. Their signed contract is now pending.

The couple has zero second thoughts about their property choice. Yet the husband is extremely nervous about how ownership of the home will play out in the future, given the economic challenges facing the country due to the virus outbreak. Indeed, he’s suffering so much insomnia that he now spends nights in the guest bedroom to avoid keeping his wife awake.

Both partners in this true story are confident their jobs are secure. Based on their income and good credit, they’ve been preapproved for a low-rate mortgage with a sizable down payment. Yet what’s giving the man restless nights are a series of worst-case scenarios. He especially fears an extended economic downturn that could cause the value of their property to plummet.

Fred Meyer doesn’t know the young couple in this true story. But the veteran real estate broker, who’s also a licensed appraiser, says it’s likely these buyers are making a sound investment, assuming they hold the property for several years or longer.

“Just as with the stock market, long-term is what matters,” says Meyer, who sells real estate around Harvard University, an area of strong appreciation.

Why is Meyer so bullish on the future of residential real estate in popular metro areas? Because property in such neighborhoods remains in short supply, and a surge of young adults is now moving into the household formation stage of their lives -- getting married and having children.

Of course, Meyer wouldn’t advise any potential buyers to move ahead with a property purchase this year if their personal finances are threatened.

“If your job is shaky or your credit is weak, this is not a good time to buy. Nor should you buy now if you intend to move again in just a year or two,” he says.

Fear of a decline in property values is just one worry now blocking many wannabe owners. Some fears are rational and can be addressed, while others are strictly emotional. Here are a few pointers for buyers on coping with their worries:

-- Write down your fears to examine them for validity.

Sheri Petersen, a life coach who advises numerous clients pursuing homebuying goals, says many people who are troubled by fears of moving forward are only vaguely aware of what’s stopping them.

“Write down every single thing that scares you and check each one out to see if it’s valid. You don’t want irrational doubts to stop you from a fulfilling life if you can address or adapt to these fears,” she says.

For instance, to address a worry that you might inadvertently buy into a crime-ridden neighborhood, drive to the community and talk to residents there to ask about their experiences with crime. Or go to the website of the local police department to review crime statistics.

To address a fear of buying a property with defects that could be costly to remedy, make sure you schedule a pre-closing home inspection with a company that does in-depth work. One way to find a local inspection firm with a solid background and training is through the website of the American Society of Home Inspectors: homeinspector.org.

Petersen learned techniques for dealing with anxieties in a seminar led by Rhonda Britten, who’s written several self-help books on how to attack worries proactively. She was especially influenced by Britten’s book “Fearless Living,” which she recommends to first-time homebuyers.

-- Use time-management tools to keep you from getting bogged down.

Pamela Dodd, a psychologist and co-author of “The 25 Best Time Management Tools & Techniques,” says buyers can take advantage of the same skills office administrators use to keep projects on track.

Your first step, she says, is to create the kind of “vision statement” athletes use to picture themselves scoring in a big game. Using the present tense, describe as closely as possible what your new life will look and feel like once you’ve reached your homeownership goal.

“Fill your vision statement with sensory images and enrich it with detail,” Dodd says. “You don’t need anything more complicated than pen and paper to develop and track your action plan,” she says.

Whatever method you use to develop your plan, the key to making it more practical and less daunting is to “chunk it down” into small, manageable pieces, according to Dodd.

For example, some small first steps for wannabe buyers could include contacting a real estate agent and phoning potential lenders.

-- Don’t allow family or friends to frighten you needlessly.

Dodd cautions those seeking to buy a first home against soliciting advice from too many sources and especially from people close to them who are likely less than objective about their situation.

“Given the current state of the economy, some friends and family might even try to talk you out of homebuying. Their intentions are good,” she says.

As Dodd points out, if you ask for lots of opinions “you’re always going to encounter naysayers.”

She suggests you restrict the number of people from whom you solicit or accept advice during your homebuying quest.

“Only ask for opinions from people you trust, whom you’ve chosen to advise you,” she says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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Homebound Owners: Preparing for a Delayed Sale

Smart Moves by by Ellen James Martin
by Ellen James Martin
Smart Moves | March 25th, 2020

There’s no sugarcoating the reality: Real estate specialists acknowledge that due to the coronavirus outbreak, the usually robust springtime home-selling market has slowed to a near standstill in many areas, with both buyers and sellers backing off.

“No one knows for sure but it’s likely many sales that would have occurred this spring will have to wait until the summer, fall or maybe even longer,” says Stacy Berman, a veteran real estate agent who specializes in the luxury segment of the market.

National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun says a new survey of real estate pros reveals that nearly half report a decline in buyer interest due to the outbreak. Numerous sellers are also retreating from the market, canceling open houses and other showings.

“The decline in confidence related to the direction of the economy, coupled with the unprecedented measures taken to combat the spread of COVID-19, ... are naturally bringing an abundance of caution among buyers and sellers,” Yun says.

But economists emphasize that the current downturn is fundamentally different than the housing crisis of 2008, which led to a serious, albeit temporary, decline in property values. One major factor that’s different this year is that property in popular neighborhoods remains in short supply.

“With fewer listings in what’s already a housing shortage environment, home prices are likely to hold steady,” Yun says.

What’s more, demographic trends should continue to support a strong housing market after the outbreak ebbs. That’s because numerous older homeowners need to eventually liquidate large family properties to support themselves in retirement. Meanwhile, many young adults are anxious to move forward with a first or second-time purchase.

Berman urges potential home sellers to roll up their sleeves and take full advantage of their homebound days to prepare in advance for a successful sale when ultimately that occurs.

“I suggest you seek guidance from your listing agent about do-it-yourself projects that could make a big difference later when your property goes on the market,” she says.

Here are a few pointers for homeowners planning a future sale:

-- Muscle through clutter accumulations during your homebound hours.

Vicki Norris, a professional organizing guru, says one of the most crucial steps in preparing a property for sale -- ridding it of excess furniture and accumulations -- is also one of the least expensive and accessible to those now homebound.

“Chaos and other people’s stuff are instant turn-offs to buyers. So your collection of memorabilia can cost you the eventual sale of your home,” says Norris, author of “Restoring Order to Your Home.”

Given that many potential sellers have time on their hands now, they can focus on decluttering projects that wouldn’t have fit into tighter schedules in the past. However, to execute an effective decluttering plan, one that will make your place look clean and clear, many owners do well with a team effort to keep them on track.

School closures due to COVID-19 have many students home for extended periods. If that’s the case with your family, and you need reinforcements to assist with cleaning and culling in advance of your home sale, Berman suggests you consider hiring your offspring to help.

-- Tackle simple kitchen renovations if you’re handy.

Sid Davis, an independent real estate broker and author, says your kitchen should be the focal point of your pre-sale home improvement program, but that upgrades in this part of your property needn’t be as elaborate as many imagine.

“Some of the most important projects cost around $1,000 to $2,000 each,” says Davis, author of “Home Makeovers That Sell.”

Davis doesn’t recommend that homeowners embark on do-it-yourself projects unless they have basic skills or training to tackle the work. And he definitely dissuades nearly all owners from taking on major electrical, plumbing or roofing work.

Still, there are many small kitchen projects that could be appropriate for homebound sellers. One typically involves improvements to kitchen cabinets.

“If you have wood cabinets, you can make them look a lot better through a thorough cleaning with Murphy Oil Soap, followed by a rubdown with lemon oil. If that doesn’t do the trick, sand and restain your cabinets or paint them in a high-gloss white. Also, be sure to add new hardware, which shouldn’t cost you more than $50,” Davis says.

Another low-cost kitchen improvement involves replacing worn flooring. Davis says the skills needed for this task are easily acquired through an online class from a home center store.

“Vinyl flooring is the cheapest, but the price for a nice tile floor has come down dramatically,” Davis says.

-- Embark on interior painting jobs.

One proven strategy for adding appeal to your interior is to paint the walls and trim throughout. For advice on painting technique, consult the websites of major paint companies.

“The only major element to a good painting job involves solid preparation, mainly sanding and surfacing -- and attention to detail,” Davis says.

Though painting is a cost-effective way to put your property in peak selling condition for a small amount of cash, he says it’s essential to select your paint carefully.

“Relative to its impact, paint isn’t expensive. However, grades vary widely. To get a good grade, you spend extra per can. But the quality differential for excellent paint makes a huge difference,” Davis says.

(To contact Ellen James Martin, email her at ellenjamesmartin@gmail.com.)

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