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What's On the Other Side of the Fence?

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 10th, 2022

You can't pick your neighbors. You can pick your neighborhood, though, and it is a good idea to give that as much thought as the house itself.

Apparently, not enough homebuyers do that. While living in a neighborhood can be a positive experience marked by lasting friendships and a sense of community, nearly two-thirds of 2,200 homeowners responding to a HomeAdvisor poll admitted to actively avoiding their neighbors.

Another, perhaps more telling, finding: Slightly more than half said they had moved or considered moving because of a neighbor. And nearly a quarter of respondents to a LendingTree survey said they'd called the cops on their neighbors.

Turns out, folks don't like being peered at from a neighbor's window or watched by security cameras. They don't particularly care for neighbors who gossip, either. Sometimes neighbors are just rude or noisy, their kids are unruly or their pets wreak havoc. Maybe they just "give off a weird vibe," many told LendingTree.

At the same time, more than 9 out of 10 respondents told HomeAdvisor they consider themselves to be good neighbors. And three-quarters of LendingTree respondents said they are buddies with the folks next door.

In a fast-moving market, homebuyers might just have to take the bad with the good.

"The unfortunate reality is that some people might not have any other choice but to live near someone they don't like," if it means buying the home they want, says LendingTree analyst Jacob Channel.

If you have the time, though, you can try to find harmony by taking a few precautions.

For starters, give the entire neighborhood a test drive. Pay attention -- not just to the places immediately adjacent to the one you're considering, but also those up and down the street and on the next block. Neglected lawns, overgrown shrubs and vehicles parked on the grass are not good signs. Ditto for wheelbarrows and other yard equipment that is not put away.

Other telltale signs include tall privacy fences, as opposed to the more friendly picket style; bars on grade-level windows; graffiti; broken or boarded-up windows; and "Beware of dog" signs. These should stand as warnings that the people inside don't feel safe.

While you're motoring around, pay attention to the streets on which you are driving. Are they smooth, or full of broken pavement? Are they clean, or strewn with litter? Are there sidewalks -- and if so, what shape are they in? Look for streetlights, and make sure they are working.

Check out the traffic patterns. Are the streets wide enough for cars going both ways to pass with ease? If the streets are too narrow, you might have to pull over every time another vehicle comes near. Similarly, see if there is room for on-street parking without impeding traffic.

You might even want to test-drive your potential new commute to work to see how long it takes during rush hour. If you plan to take public transportation, give that option a run-through.

Walking around your prospective neighborhood is also a good idea. On a nice day, people might be outside, so chat them up. Most folks are more than willing to discuss the good and bad points about where they live.

If the community has a homeowners association, try to obtain a copy of its rules and regulations. Read them carefully; if you can't abide by some, then it's not the place for you. If possible, attend an HOA meeting and speak to other owners about how the board operates.

Determine, too, if the community is in a flood zone. If so, you're likely to be required by your lender to carry flood insurance in addition to homeowner's coverage. (Even if you're not in a flood zone, it may be wise to obtain coverage. Water is extremely destructive, and floods are not always caused by a nearby body of water.)

Many real estate companies are no longer listing crime statistics, but you can check with the local police or sheriff's office for that information. You also can look online. Every area is likely to see some crime from time to time, but a high level of dangerous activity may be a bad sign.

When it comes to checking out the local schools, don't just settle for statistics. Visit the facilities where your little darlings will be attending, and sit down with the principal. If you can, take in a PTA meeting and strike up a conversation with a teacher or two, as well as some other parents. Find out what they do and don't like about the district in general and their school in particular.

Last, take a good look around the area to determine how far you are from the amenities that are important to you. Some people like living far from shopping centers that draw heavy traffic, but others want to be near the action. Ditto for churches, sports venues and the like.

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Create an Emergency Preparedness Plan

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 3rd, 2022

The Atlantic hurricane season is upon us -- it runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 -- and it could be a big one. One agency is predicting almost two dozen named storms and six to 10 hurricanes.

It may not be as bad as last year, when the World Meteorological Organization ran out of alphabetical names for the storms and resorted to using Greek letters. Nevertheless, it's going to be a doozy for the 7 million-plus single-family houses and 253,000 multifamily units that CoreLogic says are at risk from water and wind damage.

Last year was the third most active year on record in terms of named storms. But of course, hurricanes aren't the only natural disasters we face. The National Centers for Environmental Information reports that in 2021, there were 58,733 fires that burned 7,139,713 acres. And tornadoes seem to be popping up more frequently than ever.

Against this backdrop, it's no wonder that 6 out of 10 Americans told pollsters they believe they'll be affected personally by a disaster in the next few years. Unfortunately, that same study of 2,050 people -- conducted by the Harris Poll on behalf of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) -- also found that 85% of us have yet to create a disaster plan to protect our homes and finances.

In the face of a natural disaster, protecting your family and your property from harm should be your top priority. But in the aftermath, access to financial resources and personal information is critically important.

There's much to do when a major disaster is afoot, and you can never be too ready. When flooding is imminent or predicted, National Flood Insurance Program policyholders are eligible to receive up to $1,000 to purchase loss-avoidance supplies like tarps and sandbags. And if Uncle Sam declares a disaster, special tax provisions may help you recover financially. The IRS can give you more time to file a return and pay your taxes, for example, and it can speed up refunds.

Beyond that, you are going to need cash. Banks and ATMs will likely be closed or damaged, so you'll want some money in your pocket. To get a handle on how much you'll need, run some calculations now: Factor in lodging, transportation, food and other expenses you're likely to incur.

Now's also a good time to review your insurance policies to be sure you have the right coverage. Make sure you know what is covered and what isn't, and don't be afraid to comparison shop periodically to see if switching makes sense.

Make copies of all your important medical, personal and financial records, including passports and birth certificates. Keep a set with you so you can grab them if you have to evacuate, and stash another set in a safe place at a distant location -- perhaps the home of a relative, or in a safe deposit box.

After a disaster, the IRS can help taxpayers reconstruct their financial records, which may be essential for documenting a tax-deductible loss or obtaining federal assistance. The agency also offers several publications about applying for help from Uncle Sam, determining your losses and other pertinent topics.

Write down the names, phone numbers and account numbers of your banks, mortgage servicers, insurers, lawyers and accountants, and keep the list in a safe place with your keys and other papers.

Take an inventory of all your belongings, too. This will make it easier to deal with your insurer, especially if the company questions your claim. Make a complete list, or use your phone or camera to film the contents of each room, top to bottom.

Beyond these financial steps, do whatever you can to protect your dwelling. Admittedly, retrofitting your place is an expensive proposition, but there are a few affordable things you can do: For example, trim your trees regularly to remove weak branches that can become window-shattering missiles. And make sure your gutters are clear so they can channel away as much rain as possible.

Because blackouts can set off a chain reaction of disasters -- houses fires often result from candles burned during power outages, for example, and pipes can freeze when the heat goes off -- consider installing a backup generator to keep your power on. Larger units are capable of running an entire house, but they are expensive, costing upwards of $15,000. But small, portable generators with enough capacity to run the HVAC system and the refrigerator for several hours start at about $300.

You also should plan an evacuation route well ahead of time, in case you have to skedaddle. Plan a second route, too, just in case your first option is blocked.

Try to figure out where you'll go and specifically where you'll stay. Only a third of those queried in the Harris/AICPA survey have such a plan, and only a third have assembled a disaster supply kit.

Speaking of which, your kit should include three days' worth of drinking water, batteries, candles or oil lamps with fuel, matches, prescription drugs, first-aid supplies, flashlights, a few basic tools and perhaps a tarp and plywood. If you need to evacuate, grab your kit and run, don't walk.

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Odd Lots: Cooling, Helping, Russians

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 27th, 2022

Owners who are just now putting their homes on the market appear to be an optimistic bunch. Whether they are too hopeful remains to be seen, but the signs are pointing to a slowdown that could stop the march of ever-higher prices.

So far, the evidence of a slowdown is spotty at best. The market in northern Virginia remains in "hot-market territory," broker David Rathgeber tells me. And "there is no evidence" the hot southwest Florida market is changing, says agent Robert Goldman.

Goldman believes that for the market to shift, interest rates have to move higher, the inventory of houses for sale has to increase "on a massive level," and there has to be sudden drop in demand.

Check the interest rate box: Mortgage rates are now above 5% -- their highest point in a dozen years -- and they're still heading north. With 70% of all active mortgages at rates below 4%, potential move-up homeowners may be reluctant to give up their low-cost loans.

Check the demand box, too: According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, buyers are becoming discouraged. The share of those who think they'll buy within the next three years fell for the first time since the inception of the New York Fed's annual Survey of Consumer Expectations. And the share of renters who think they're likely to own anytime in the future dropped below 50% for the first time, as well.

Even the new-home sector is seeing demand wane. Builders report that traffic has declined to its lowest point since last summer. And the share of adults planning to buy any house, new or existing, within the next year has fallen for three straight months, the National Association of Home Builders reports.

"The decline is evidence that the COVID-induced boost to housing demand is past its peak and is now softening," says the NAHB's Rose Quint.

Nationally, new listings slipped recently after starting to build back up. But they are expected to pick up again, with May normally being the peak month for sellers to list their places. According to new research from Clever Real Estate, a third of potential sellers, fearful of missing out on huge profits, have moved up their plans. And nearly half of them fully expect to sell for more than their asking price.

Forget the fact that almost 30% also expect to accept an offer within two weeks of listing. The question is: Have they already missed the boat? According to Redfin, 15% of sellers dropped their asking price during the four-week period ending May 1.

Maybe they were asking too much to begin with. But as Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, sees it, "Sellers should no longer expect the easy-profit gains ... as demand continues to subside."

Royal Hartwig of Royal Family Real Estate in Illinois agrees that demand is waning, but says it's "still a very strong market," with "maybe only 20-30 showings in a couple of days, as opposed to the 80-100 we had at this point last year."

Private mortgage insurers helped about 1.6 million families buy houses last year, even though those buyers didn't have the traditional 20% down payment lenders usually require.

They did so by guaranteeing that if a borrower defaulted, they would make good on the difference between what the borrowers put up at closing and 20% of their home's original value.

Of course, the ability to make a smaller down payment doesn't come cheaply, and it's the borrower who pays for the PMI. It adds roughly $135 to the monthly payment, on average, depending on how much the borrower puts down and the cost of the house. But if it makes the difference between buying or continuing to rent, many people choose the PMI option.

Owners paying for PMI coverage should remember that it can be canceled after a certain number of years or when the underlying property's loan-to-value ratio reaches 78%. You have to be current with a good payment history, and you have to initiate the process. And the way houses have appreciated over the last few years, says Marshall Gayden of Radian Guaranty, cancellation could be an option after just two or three years.

Not counting oligarchs, who tend to hide their investments, Russians have had little impact on the American residential real estate market over the last few years.

According to the National Association of Realtors, Russians accounted for less than 1% of all foreign purchases since 2015. On average, they paid $652,915 for their dwellings, versus the average of $480,695 paid by all foreign buyers. About half paid cash and use their property as their residence.

These folks probably don't have to worry about Uncle Sam seizing their properties, unless they used cash from illicit activities -- drug-running, for example, or stealing from their government -- to buy them. If they did, the feds are on the prowl.

While the Biden administration has made it a priority to identify these rogues, it appears that no real estate has been seized to date. But the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has renewed and expanded its effort to find the scallywags by requiring title insurance companies to identify persons behind shell companies used in all-cash purchases of residential real estate.

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