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Odd Lots: Neighbors, Ceilings, Showings

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | January 1st, 2021

Shortly before my wife and I returned home from a few weeks at the ocean last summer, a small EF-1 tornado touched down about 100 yards from our house. No damage was done to our home, but a rather large tree fell across the driveway. By the time we got home, though, two of our neighbors had taken it upon themselves to cut the tree into usable firewood.

Needless to say, we have good neighbors. And as it turns out, many of us do.

“Neighbors in America tend to like and care for each other,” says Improvenet, a contractor-matching service, after recently polling 2,500 people. “Many spend time socializing, and most are quick to offer a helping hand.”

More than two-thirds of those surveyed have gotten to know their neighbors better during the pandemic. Almost that many have made an effort to be more friendly than usual, and nearly 7 in 10 say they appreciate their neighbors more than ever. Amen.

Beyond socializing, the survey found that we are eager to help one another. During the pandemic, 67% have offered aid of some sort to their neighbors, and 62% say they’ve received the same in return.

Some observers are agog about the rise in the conforming loans limits for this year -- now a staggering $822,375 in high-cost markets and $548,000 everywhere else.

That means that with a 20% down payment, someone in one of many coastal markets can buy a million-dollar house with a conforming loan.

The conforming loan ceiling is the maximum mortgage amount that can be acquired from primary lenders by the two government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The GSEs then place those loans into securities that are sold to investors worldwide.

The process not only helps keep money flowing into the mortgage market, but also allows homebuyers to borrow at slightly lower rates than those whose loans are not sold to Fannie and Freddie. And the loan limit is adjusted on an annual basis.

Some say the new limits are way too high, especially when Fannie and Freddie’s mission is to support middle-market transactions. But according to a new report from their government regulator (the GSEs are still in conservatorship as a result of the 2008 housing debacle), only a relative handful of borrowers took advantage of the 2019 increase, when the ceilings were raised to $726,525 in expensive places and $484,350 elsewhere.

Back then, says the Federal Housing Finance Agency, only 142,000 borrowers took out GSE-backed loans above the 2018 ceiling. That’s just 3.4% of the more than 4 million mortgages acquired by the GSEs.

Still, the typical borrower who secured a mortgage above the previous limit reported an income of $182,000. That’s twice the income of those whose income was below the 2018 ceiling. The median value of the houses they financed was $646,000, also twice the typical value of other borrowers.

Pending home sales are considering a leading indicator in the housing market. But showings may be even a better harbinger of things to come.

Pending sales are houses that are under contract but have yet to close. But showings indicate that would-be buyers are still out there, hunting for just the right place.

Just as not all contracts close, not all showings lead to contracts. But the fact that people are house-hunting in the face of colder weather and a pandemic that just won’t go away means the market remains strong. And according to ShowingTime, a management technology provider, year-over-year activity surged in October.

“House-hunting remained steady as we head into winter, subverting all the usual trends,” said ShowingTime President Michael Lane. “Seeing markets throughout the country record twice as many showings per listing compared to the same time last year suggests pent-up demand hasn’t fully played out yet.”

Fewer people are exiting forbearance programs offered by their lenders, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Worse, though, more people who had left relief programs are back in line, seeking help for a second time.

According to MBA’s latest estimate, 2.8 million borrowers are in forbearance plans. Of those, about 20% are in the initial stage, while some 78% are in an extension. The remaining 2% have returned for a second helping.

The good news: “Only” 5.5% of all borrowers are in a forbearance program.

In 1963, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Thomas Lynch played football for the Naval Academy alongside Roger Staubach, who went on to play for the Dallas Cowboys and was enshrined in both the college and professional football halls of fame before going into the commercial real estate business.

Like Staubach, Lynch is now in the real estate game: He’s the executive chairman of NewDay USA, one of the country’s largest mortgage lenders and perhaps the largest one dealing solely with veterans and active-duty servicemen and women.

By the way, Navy was ranked second in the country in ‘63, and played No. 1 Texas for the national championship. (The Middies lost, 28-6.)

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Odd Lots: Parking, Neighbors, Holiday Houses

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 25th, 2020

When the conversation turns to the nation’s affordable housing crisis, the talk is usually about ever-higher house prices and the cost of regulations. Rarely does the discussion mention parking. But it should, says Brian O’Looney, author of the new book, “Increments of Neighborhood.”

O’Looney says parking requirements drive up construction costs, “turning cities into storage areas” for our vehicles and keeping home prices “prohibitively high” for consumers. They add costs, not just terms of the actual parking, but also in the opportunity cost lost when parking displaces potential residential development, he told me in an email.

The author says two-thirds of suburban land in commercial and retail areas is dedicated to parking. And since retail parking is designed for peak loads, lots run at only 45% to 50% capacity for most of the year.

As O’Looney sees it, parking rules are “often more of a pseudoscience, with little to no statistical basis and more a political calculation.” He says changing parking requirements can increase commercial land values by 30% and lower development costs by 25% -- or up to 30% in urban areas.

Whether or not homeowners are thinking about putting their places on the market, most of us wonder what our houses are worth. But we’re just as curious about what our neighbors’ homes would bring -- particularly when the “For Sale” sign comes down and the “Sold” sign goes up.

Now real estate agents are being offered a new tool that gives their clients a map showing recently sold houses in their areas, complete with the final sales price. You’ll have to connect with an agent who has the program, but most should welcome an inquiry because you could be their next client.

The “Recently Sold” map is being offered by the Delta Media Group as part of its automated valuation page. It lists up to 10 sold listings within a 1.5-mile radius from the user’s address. Delta’s Michael Minard thinks it could go a long way toward solving real estate’s No. 1 challenge: the lack of inventory.

“Brokerages are discovering that showing local homeowners the real final sales price -- not just the asking price -- can help motivate some owners to become sellers,” Minard says.

Sales of vacation properties are soaring, according to the National Association of Realtors. But if buyers are intending to cover their costs by renting out their holiday digs, they could be in for a rude surprise -- at least until the pandemic runs its course.

A report from Stock Apps, a financial education website, says the vacation rental market has taken an “enormous financial hit.” Worldwide, holiday rentals will be off by $35 billion this year, which is a drop of 42% from 2019, it says.

Individual owners and small property management companies aren’t the only ones taking it on the chin. Outfits like Airbnb, Booking.com and Expedia saw a 90% plunge in reservations as people stayed home, the company says. “The initial wave of COVID-19 caused massive cancellations of stays, with even the market’s biggest players witnessing colossal reservation drops,” said the report.

Meanwhile, NAR says sales of houses intended as vacation getaways totaled 109,100 in the third quarter, a 44% jump from the same period last year. In comparison, the sale of primary residences rose just 13% over the same period.

Not only were more second homes sold in the July-to-September period, they sold faster when compared to historical norms. Nearly 60% sold within one month. A year ago, only 25% sold that quickly. (The norm is about 30%, says NAR economist Gay Cororaton.)

As usual, the vast majority of holiday houses were snapped up by Americans. But because of virus-imposed travel bans, the number of foreign buyers fell from 3% to less than 1%. Of those who did buy here, 13% came from Europe and 12% from were China.

Borrowers who want to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of record-low interest rates should not fear being turned down by a lender. According to a survey by LendingTree, 86% of all refi applications are approved.

Of course, those whose houses have appreciated in value and have higher credit scores are more likely to be approved. But there are always exceptions and other factors that are considered, says Tendayi Kapfidze, the mortgage search engine’s chief economist.

In the third quarter, refinances accounted for the majority of home loans, according to Attom Data Solutions. Lenders issued 1,955,668 residential refinance mortgages during the period, up 15.7% from the second quarter and 84.5% from the same period last year.

Overall, lenders were busier than ever. “The housing market (is) still operating as if the recession brought on by the pandemic didn’t exist,” says Todd Teta, Attom’s chief product officer. “Buyers and owners, lured by low mortgage rates, kept lining up for loans at levels not seen in more than a decade.”

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Look Beyond Detached Houses

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 18th, 2020

People shopping for new, more spacious single-family houses where they can hunker down during the pandemic may be overlooking places that meet most, if not all, of their needs: town houses and condominiums.

The newest breed of town houses and apartments check all the boxes for riding out the virus -- and beyond. Indeed, many seem to be designed especially for the pandemic, but often at a more affordable price and in a more walkable location than detached houses in the far-out suburbs.

Yes, these attached homes normally are somewhat smaller than their stand-alone brethren. But today’s plans often include dedicated home offices, separate spaces for home-schooling, and dual master suites -- handy for extended families, or if someone must be quarantined.

Some have kitchens with expansive islands for cooking, crafting and gathering, and walk-in pantries for stocking up on essentials. Some even come with finished basements for whatever the need may be -- lounges, bonus rooms or play areas for the little ones -- and private, fenced-in backyards for safe outdoor activities.

According to the Census Bureau, town house construction has slowed a bit as demand has shifted to more suburban and exurban locations, where land tends to be less expensive. Over the last four quarters, single-family attached dwellings accounted for 106,000 construction starts, which is 6% fewer than in the previous four quarters.

Still, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, believes the town house share of the market will trend higher in the coming years. Given the growing number of buyers looking for medium-density neighborhoods, such as urban villages with walkable environments and other amenities (as opposed to high-density spots that depend on mass transit and elevators), Dietz says the “long-run prospects” for town houses “remain positive.”

Attached single-family houses have long been touted as great alternatives to more expensive detached dwellings, especially for first-time buyers moving out of apartments or their parents’ basements. But now, in their effort to compete with detached houses in the age of COVID-19, some town house builders are designing bigger and better than ever.

They may or may not be any less expensive, but they tend to be closer to city centers than detached homes in the way-out-there suburban fringes. Cases in point: Two projects by Chicago-based Lexington Homes -- one in Arlington Heights in the city’s northwestern suburbs and the other in Warrenville, almost due west. Both have all the functionality and style of detached houses -- and at different price points.

They offer “open concept” floor plans, spacious kitchens with large islands, and master baths with seats in the showers and separate water closets. They have finished lower levels, unfinished basements, private balconies and small, yet functional, backyards. They also have multiple home office/workspaces, which today’s buyers say they want. And some layouts offer dens and computer niches at the top of the staircase landing, supplying families the options they may need for remote learning and working.

Neither project is considered close-in, one longtime local told me, but Arlington Heights is still in Cook County, same as Chicago. The Lexington Heritage property there features two collections: one with two- and three-bedroom, two-story models, each with two-car garages and up to 3 1/2 baths. This grouping ranges in size from 1,650 to 1,950 square feet. Homes in the other series contain three-level units with two or three bedrooms, attached garages and up to 3 1/2 baths, and run from 1,813 to 1,976 square feet.

Though still in the nine-county Chicago metro region, Warrenville is “pretty far out” at the western end of DuPage County, my resident geographer said. But the units there measure almost 2,000 square feet, with either front- or rear-loading garages. And starting at just under $300,000, prices there are much less than in Arlington Heights, where the starting price is $438,000. (As a reference, the median resale price in Chicagoland in July was $277,000.)

No longer a basic two-bedroom, two-bath cube, some condominiums are evolving, too. Some now even offer multiple floors.

Let’s look again at Chicago, where the CA6 West Loop project by the Belgravia Group offers four-bedroom duplexes. These two-story units feature dedicated office spaces, flex rooms to accommodate multiple uses, and outsized 700-square-foot private terraces that can hold a trampoline or an inflatable pool.

These units range in size from 3,100 to 3,157 square feet with four bedrooms, 3.5 baths and a backyard. But starting at $1.65 million, the prices here are not for the typical buyer.

Prices are somewhat more modest at 7180 Optima Kierland, a new 12-story tower in Scottsdale, Arizona: The tower’s one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments, as well as penthouses, start at $500,000 and run up to more than $2 million. The median resale price in the Phoenix area was $315,000 in July.

Also starting at $500,000, the units at the Venue condo in Old Town Alexandria across the Potomac from Washington, D.C., range up to 2,300 square feet with one to three bedrooms, plus a den.

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