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Far From Home Sweet Home

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | September 11th, 2020

Navy Lt. Dwight Carter (name has been changed) was excited to report to Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, in 2018. He’d been selected to attend the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College there, and was looking forward to advancing his naval career through his studies at the prestigious military school.

But just a couple of weeks after he and his family moved into their on-base housing, Carter began feeling ill.

“I experienced chronic and devastating symptoms ranging from cognitive, vision, hearing and memory impairment, tinnitus, arrhythmia, tachycardia, severe abdominal pain, relentless anxiety, numbness in arms and legs, extreme fatigue and many more,” he said in a telephone interview.

After seeking medical attention from both military and civilian doctors, Carter is convinced the sources of his many ailments are toxic mold, carbon monoxide and lead paint, all of which he and his family were exposed to at their eight-plex unit and at other military housing on the base. He points particularly to a living room HVAC unit that proved to be “a petri dish from hell” of contaminants.

Carter’s case is far from unique. Congressional watchdogs at the General Accountability Office have looked into multiple cases of illness and severely subpar housing on bases for all of the country’s armed services. And they have given the military a flunking grade on the way many servicemen and women have been housed.

The Department of Defense doesn’t disagree: Of the dozen scathing findings and recommendations the GAO made, DOD has agreed with 10 of them and partially concurs with the other two.

But Carter’s grievance doesn’t stop with the allegedly toxic housing. It’s also with what he describes as ineffective medical care from both the Army and Navy, and a misdiagnosis of his health concerns as psychological in nature.

He says a civilian doctor has diagnosed him as suffering from “acute, high-level exposure to toxic mold and more specifically the poisons they produce, called mycotoxins. The exposure originated from a water-damaged building ecosystem where mold grew unabated and where their toxins permeated the living environment.”

Other grievances he reports include “reprisal, cover-ups, denial of medical care, adverse personnel actions and intimidation.”

Even worse, his wife and children had even higher exposures than his. “Since my wife and children home-school, they were constantly exposed without relief while we were stationed in Kansas,” he said. “My wife had asthma attacks, tinnitus, numbness in her legs and arms, and three of our five children suffered from chronic cough and abdominal pain.”

So far, his family has stayed healthier than he has. The officer continues to battle health issues, the most devastating being a pulmonary condition that has left him with just 75% of his normal breathing function.

The scope of the military housing problem is large. Though more than half of military personnel live offsite, the ones who reside on base live in units the Pentagon has contracted out to private companies. And there are a lot of these “privatized” homes: 202,000 units on 80 bases, according to DOD.

As reported in this column earlier this year, the House of Representatives asked GAO to investigate concerns like those brought to the Senate. Overall, GAO’s conclusions paint a picture of shoddy oversight of housing conditions. Amplifying the preliminary recommendations previously reported here, it found:

-- The military departments conduct some oversight of the physical condition of housing, but some efforts have been limited in scope. “For example, annual interior walk-throughs are limited to just a few homes at some installations, which may not comprehensively reflect the condition of the housing units at those installations.”

-- The military departments use performance metrics to monitor private partners, but the metrics do not provide meaningful information on the condition of housing. “A common indicator is how quickly the private partner responded to a work order, not whether the issue was actually addressed.”

-- The military departments and their private partners collect maintenance data on homes, but these data are not captured reliably or consistently. “DOD is expanding its use of work order data to monitor and track the condition of privatized housing. However, based on GAO’s analysis of data provided by all 14 private partners, these data cannot reliably be used for ongoing monitoring of privatized housing because of data anomalies and inconsistent business practices in how these data are collected.”

-- DOD provides reports to Congress on the status of privatized housing, but “some data in these reports are unreliable, leading to misleading results.”

In all, GAO made 12 recommendations: six to top brass at the Pentagon, and two each to the secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force.

In the meantime, though, many service members and veterans are wondering if their health has been compromised by substandard housing and a seemingly uncaring or intimidating chain of command. Some probably share Carter’s feeling of hopelessness: “We are invisible, without a voice. And we will be gone before anyone notices and cares.”

Asked if he wanted to add a recommendation to the GAO’s to rectify what he called “a debacle,” Carter offered this: Cancel private contracts and put “the slumlords” out of business. Bring housing back in-house at DOD. Fix unhealthy housing by leveling it. Incentivize business owners like homebuilders to come in and erect decent, healthy houses.

Finally, he thinks military spouses should be put on the oversight boards. That would be a really effective way to make sure everything stays shipshape, he says.

-- Freelance writer Mark Fogarty contributed to this report.

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Odd Lots: Help, War, Move, Winner

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | September 4th, 2020

The number of homeowners seeking mortgage forbearance fell for at least eight straight weeks this summer. But that decline masks a couple of other important trends.

One is a big uptick in the number of borrowers asking for an extension of plans that allowed them to defer their regular payments. The other is the number of folks who left their plans and are now seeking to move back into forbearance mode.

Further increases in these two key metrics would indicate that more owners are at financial risk of losing their homes than seem otherwise indicated.

One person who is following these trends is Julian Hebron, the founder of The Basis Point, a sales and marketing consulting firm. Hebron pointed to Mortgage Bankers Association statistics showing that from May 31 to July 19, relief extensions jumped from 3.97% to a staggering 50.23%.

The MBA also has reported a new data point: 0.41% of borrowers who ended their original forbearance plan are asking for another one.

Meanwhile, the Black Knight advisory firm reports that more that two-thirds of loans still in active forbearance have had their plans extended, mostly for three additional months, creating an “echo wave” of forbearance expirations.

These figures may or may not signal another mortgage Armageddon down the road, but they need to be observed carefully.

“It’s critical to watch forbearance reentry from this point forward,” says Hebron.

He suggests one reason for these numbers is borrowers’ inability to refinance their mortgages at the current record low rates. To refi, he notes, most lenders require applicants to either be caught up on their payments or be on time with at least three payments after exiting forbearance.

Meanwhile, the Urban Institute reports that 735,000 borrowers have gone delinquent despite the forbearance options available to them. The two most common reasons: fear of having to make a lump-sum payment at the end of the forbearance period (which is not always the case) and not realizing lenders are willing to give them a breather on their payments.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the group also reports that more than 1 million folks are making their full payments on time even though they are in an active forbearance plan.

In another sign that bidding wars are taking hold in inventory-starved housing markets, Redfin reports that 20% of the successful offers submitted in June by the chain’s agents waived the inspection contingency. That’s up from 13% in June 2019.

Winning bids waived the appraisal contingency at a 21% rate -- an all-time high, up from 17% a year earlier, the brokerage firm said.

Redfin agents report that incidences of buyers battling one another for the same property have been on the rise in recent months. Trying to take advantage of record low loan rates but facing a shortage of houses for sale, more than half of all buyers faced competition in June.

How strong is the competition? That depends on the market. But Lindsay Katz, a Redfin agent in Los Angeles, recently booked 42 showings for a house she put into the local multiple listing service only 24 hours earlier. And she sold a house to someone who had to beat out 11 other bidders to win the day.

Incidentally, that house sold for $770,000 -- $85,000 over its asking price. “We could’ve gotten another $30,000 for the house, but we opted to take the safe bet over the highest offer because there was so much uncertainty due to the pandemic,” Katz says.

How safe? The buyer passed on the appraisal and inspection contingencies and agreed to obtain financing in 10 days. The standard in California is 21 days.

There’s no question that selling your home is a stressful experience, especially if you’re buying another one at the same time. But it’s also expensive. And we’re not talking just about the commission you have to pay your agent and the money it takes to move.

Sellers also spend thousands fixing up their places before they list them.

According to a recent study by LendingTree, sellers expect to spend more than $10,000 on average for repairs and upgrades to make their places stand out. Millennial sellers anticipate spending $13,727 on average, the highest amount of all age groups.

After removing decorations and decluttering, the top three repairs and upgrades seller have made are painting interiors, 48%; upgrading bathrooms, 45%, and replacing older appliances, 45%. A good number also improved their landscaping, threw on a fresh coat of exterior paint or changed out flooring.

Should you pull the trigger to take advantage of rates below 3%, or should you wait for them to fall lower? Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily and a regular contributor to the industry newsletter, says his tea leaves indicate to “go for it now.”

Of course, no one can say with any certainty that rates will continue to fall. But there are some who believe they can still slip by 75 basis points or so. (A basis point is 1% of 1 percentage point.)

If you refi now and rates subsequently fall, says Graham, you can always refinance again. But if rates go the other way, you’ll be ahead of the game.

“It’s as close to a win-win as we typically see in a game that can only truly be won with clairvoyance,” he says.

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Sight Unseen? Don’t Wear Blinders

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 28th, 2020

More and more buyers are placing offers on houses they’ve never visited in person -- the most on record, according to a new report. And the trend is likely to continue as people try to work around the pandemic, and a worsening shortage of houses for sale, while still trying to take advantage of super-low mortgage rates.

It’s still rare that the entire sales process is completed without the buyer actually ever setting foot in the house. But technology is such that it can be done if you are so inclined.

However, buying sight-unseen doesn’t mean you have to go into the transaction blindfolded. There are several ways you can protect yourself against the possibility the house you’re after isn’t what you thought it was -- even if you’ve taken several virtual tours of the place.

One surefire step is to make certain your offer contains a contingency that allows you to have a professional home inspector of your choice go over the house before closing. Many buyers are waiving this, and other key protections, in an effort to beat out competitors vying for the same house. But when you make an offer before seeing the place, an inspection clause is even more important.

Los Angeles buyer Gladys Sanchez, who is planning to go to closing without seeing her choice firsthand, was able to get out of one contract when the inspection turned up a faulty electrical panel. Sanchez considered the problem a deal-breaker, and the inspection contingency allowed her to call off the transaction.

Still, Sanchez -- buying online because she lives with a sister who is immunocompromised -- hasn’t given up on the process. “I never would have chosen to buy a house this way,” she told pollsters from Redfin. “But I’d rather take a risk with my home purchase than take a risk with my family’s health.”

New Yorker Brian Olasov also put in an offer on a house he had never viewed in person. He put a lot of faith in his wife, who had seen the place firsthand, as well as his local real estate agent and a trusted friend who took him on a Facetime tour. But in the end, he relied most heavily on his inspector.

“I’m very, very prudent and conservative. The notion of buying a home sight-unseen is an anathema to me,” he said in a phone interview, adding that he hired the pickiest inspector he could find. “And because he was extremely busy, I paid twice his normal fee. But that’s still a very small cost when you’re looking at such a big purchase.”

As it was, Olasov received a 50-page report from his inspector, including a 1 1/2-page punch list of things needing attention. The seller agreed to repair every item.

Still, some sellers don’t like the idea of taking their homes off the market for a buyer who has never seen their places.

“If buyers are peeing their pants so badly that they have to sign a contract sight-unseen, they should shoulder the risk,” says Virginia broker David Rathgeber. “Why should the seller take his home off the market for a month or so when a buyer can suddenly decide, ‘Oh, I want to see it,’ goes to see it and cancels the contract?”

To counteract that argument, agree to visit and inspect the house within a short period -- say, seven to 10 days. On the flip side, sellers should insist on such a clause if the buyer wants to visit and inspect the place before closing.

It’s also a good idea for buyers to check out the house’s neighborhood. You may not be able to go inside the house, but you can drive around the community to get a feel for where you hope to reside.

“I always, always, always show (clients) around the neighborhood,” says Redfin’s Lindsay Katz, who is Sanchez’s agent. She even goes so far as turning off any lights in her vehicle so they can see the house in the natural light, and opening the car windows to hear any street noise.

“If there are issues with the inside of a house, they can get those fixed, but they can’t fix a neighborhood,” Katz warns.

If you are moving from outside the area and cannot visit in person, use your local agent as your eyes, advises California agent Tracy McLaughlin, who has sold a number of homes sight-unseen over the years.

To get a sense of the neighborhood, the agent should begin her camera tour “blocks down the street from the house, so there is a sense of the whole,” McLaughlin says. And once inside, the agent should be sure the camera angles include the scale of ceiling heights and how much light there is in the house.

During the tour, says Danielle Parent, a Redfin agent in Cleveland, the agent should be pointing out things the camera misses, such as foundation cracks and the condition and age of the roof and windows. And the agent should advise you of the condition of surrounding houses so you will know if your neighbors take pride in ownership.

Orlando Redfin agent Juan Castro says he hasn’t seen many sight-unseen offers fall apart. But when they do, he said, it’s “usually because of the community or the location of the house.” For example, the place backs up to a highway or a shopping center.

In that regard, Parent says you can do a lot of homework from afar: Look at maps of the area, check out the local school system, locate grocery stores and other key amenities, order an environmental report to make sure there are no issues such as airplane noise, and study the history of appreciation for the house you want to buy, as well as similar nearby properties.

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