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Remodeling Succumbs to the Virus

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 26th, 2020

If you are stuck in your house, gazing furtively at all the things you don’t like about it, you’re not alone. Homeowners across the country are seeing things that need to be repaired, replaced and improved. And it seems some are doing something about it.

National home improvement chains such as Home Depot, Lowe’s and Ace Hardware saw strong sales in the first quarter as folks changed out hardware, faucets, sinks, appliances and cabinets, threw on some new paint inside and out and fed their lawns.

Lowe’s posted an 11% jump in sales, including an 80% gain in online sales. Home Depot’s sales were up 7.5%, even though it trimmed store hours and limited customer traffic. And after a 4.2% gain in the first quarter, Ace Hardware’s 3,200 retail stores posted a 26% jump in same-store sales in April, including a whopping 580% jump in online transactions.

Most of their growth was “in the $300-$500 basket -- the core of the do-it-yourself sweet spot,” says Steve Basten, senior manager of building products research at the John Burns Real Estate Consulting firm in Irvine, California.

The remodeling business hasn’t fared nearly so well. These small contractors do the big things owners can’t do, or fear doing, on their own: replacing entire kitchens and baths, adding new rooms, building decks or tricking out unfinished basements. And according to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders, the pandemic all but shut them down.

Angie Hicks of Angie’s List disagrees. “We’re not seeing as much ‘love-to-have’ things right now,” she told me in a phone interview. “But there’s still lots of home improvement going on, especially in the nondiscretionary, essential stuff.”

But only 4% of the companies responding to the NAHB poll said they were taking the same number of inquiries as before the country went into quarantine. Most said hardly anything new was coming in, and 84% said existing projects were either being delayed or canceled.

Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies had projected a slowdown in home improvement spending this year anyway. Now, though, Abbe Will, who runs the Center’s Remodeling Futures program, says the decline “will be even more pronounced.”

Even though many owners remain hesitant to let workers into their homes right now, many remodelers believe their prospects are looking up. More than two-thirds expect a recovery by September, reports Burns executive Elizabeth LaJeunesse. “Some are even worried they might not be able to meet the demand,” she says.

Many homeowners are feeling stuck, and not just because of quarantine: They want to move, but there’s either nothing on the market, or their incomes have shrunk and they now can’t afford a new place.

Remodeling can be a great option for those homeowners, especially those in older houses. “Once a house crosses the 15-year threshold, its owner is much more likely to remodel,” says Todd Tomalak, a Burns senior vice president.

If you have the ability to give your place a makeover, you’re one of the lucky ones. But some people who take on such tasks quickly find themselves in over their heads. Indeed, a major source of business for the professionals -- more than 30%, the NAHB says -- is from owners who have either botched the work or found themselves needing expert help to keep going.

If you find yourself needing a contractor, you first have to figure out how you’re going to pay for him or her. Cash is great; credit cards, not so great. The interest on those things is brutal. If you don’t pay the entire bill when it’s due, you’ll end up paying much more -- maybe 25% more -- than what the remodeler charged.

Another option is to refinance your current mortgage. That way, you might be able to take advantage of the lowest rates in ages while pulling out enough of the equity you’ve built up in your home to pay for the work. Older owners might want to consider home equity conversion loans, aka reverse mortgages, to achieve the same goal.

Many people also borrow against the value they have in their homes. With a home equity line of credit, you can take out just enough money to cover the job and pay it back on a monthly basis. However, the HELOC market has tightened considerably since the virus took hold.

Another possibility is a personal loan from your bank. But stay away from so-called payday lenders: These sometimes shifty outfits offer high-fee, short-term loans that can put you a treadmill of high-cost payments.

Before you settle on a remodeler, make sure they’re taking the proper precautions before and after entering any homes they work on. A contractor matching service called Porch suggests asking contractors for references from owners like yourself to be certain they follow certain protocols.

Porch’s Max Anderson says most pros have adopted COVID-19 policies, including washing their hands frequently, cleaning their gear between customer visits and wearing masks, gloves and shoe bootees. Some companies are even checking employee temperatures when they show up for work and sending home any who don’t pass muster.

Hicks reports the same: An Angie’s List survey found that more than 90% of the 1,000 service professionals polled have added at least one new cleaning measure since the pandemic struck. Most are doing more frequent cleanings, and more than a third have purchased more personal protective equipment.

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When the All-Clear is Sounded

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 19th, 2020

It may be too early to forecast exactly what lies ahead for the housing market once COVID-19 passes into the history books. But at this point, the sector seems poised to retake its place in leading the economy back from the coronavirus-inspired recession.

Housing didn’t guide the economy after the Great Recession, but that event was characterized by an overabundance of houses and lending standards that qualified practically anyone who could fog a mirror.

This time around, the fundamentals are far stronger. Indeed, housing was headed for the record books when the economy went into lockdown. And when the shutdown finally ends, it should pick up again where it left off.

But that doesn’t mean there will be a return to normal. With that in mind, here’s a look at what lies ahead.

-- Existing homes. There’s no question the resale sector has been hit hard. Nationally, sales plunged nearly 18% in March from the same month a year ago -- the biggest descent in almost a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But prices seem to be holding steady. Indeed, NAR thinks prices may even rise a percentage point or two this year as inventory continues to dry up. And most observers believe that when the all-clear is sounded, the market will come back with a vengeance. Indeed, there are already signs of that.

The number of people reaching out to Redfin agents in mid-May was up 16.5% -- enough for the chain to bring back about a third of the employees it had furloughed earlier. And more sellers put their homes on the market with Redfin in the week ending May 15 than in any other week since March 1.

ShowingTime, a scheduling service for agents, says visitor traffic experienced year-to-year gains immediately after states loosened the reins on in-person showings. And predictive models at Offrs.com suggest that listings will surge 38% next year.

But when the market does open up, house shopping is likely to be much different. For one thing, open houses, a weekend ritual in many places, could be few and far between.

Opens have always been somewhat controversial; some agents hate 'em, but others love them. Truth be told, few houses are sold to open house visitors. Agents mainly use them to appease sellers, and to turn agent-less visitors into future clients.

During the epidemic, many states prohibited open houses, so some agents turned to virtual tours. And why not? Most people start their house search online anyway.

That’s likely to continue. Once you find two or three houses you’d like to see in person, you’ll have to make an appointment. You may be asked to wear a mask, gloves and/or bootees, and told not to open cabinets or appliances. Once you leave, someone will disinfect the house, and the owners can resume their day.

-- New homes. At the beginning of the year, new construction was expected to absorb some of the heat from the lack of resale inventory. But that sector has also been struggling. You could say builders have caught the virus.

Single-family housing starts plunged 25% in April to the lowest number in five years. Sales at the 18,000 actively selling projects covered by Meyers Research were down 33% in April. Meanwhile, 22% of builders told the National Association of Home Builders that they have cut prices to bolster sales.

Most recently, though, builder confidence has bounced back a tad. New home prices have remained fairly steady, actually rising a scant 0.6% in April. Also, about a third of the 300 division presidents polled by Meyers said they expect to hit or even exceed their May goals. At the same time, though, a fourth told researchers they won’t sell 70% of the homes they expected to in 2020.

When builders start putting shovels in the ground again, they’re likely to move slowly. Because they face so many headwinds, they may have to.

Early in the pandemic, a third of all builders halted work in some or all of their projects, the NAHB found. Worse, many buyers canceled their contracts, causing builders to cut back on putting up spec houses intended for customers who needed to move right away. And builders who wanted to keep working had difficulty getting plans approved because many building department employees were working from home.

Moreover, while some well-heeled outfits were being aggressive, others stopped looking for land for new projects, or canceled deals they had under contract. Also, their cost of financing is rising, more than 400,000 jobs have been lost in the construction and remodeling sector, and prices for lumber and other building materials could be rising soon.

Adding all this up: It will take months -- 16 to 20, the Meyers firm is saying -- for the sector to recover, and more than three years to return to its peak. And buyers may not be able to tour model homes at will, as they once could. Like in the resale market, appointments will be needed to tour a house.

You might not meet with a salesperson, either. Maybe you’ll be given a unique-to-you code to unlock the front door so you can walk inside and tour on your own. The builder’s agent will follow up once you leave, and someone will come into the model to sanitize the place for the next visitor.

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Homeowners Also Game the System

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 12th, 2020

Much has been written about government abuse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Plenty has been said, too, about how some well-heeled businesses have snatched up government loans intended for smaller, local outfits that really needed the help. But it seems some homeowners are scamming the system, as well.

According to Black Knight, a data analytics company, some 4.75 million owners have sought relief from their lenders under terms of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act and/or programs offered by lenders.

Every borrower who qualifies under the CARES Act can suspend their house payments for up to a year. The forgiven payments must be paid back, of course -- in many cases, added on to the end of the loan.

Though forbearance can be a blessing for those struggling to stay afloat, a new LendingTree survey conducted by Qualtrics suggests that most people who have received forbearance may not have actually needed it. At least not right away. According to the survey, 4 out of every 5 borrowers who applied for relief were cleared. But only 5% told LendingTree’s pollsters that they would not have been able to make their next mortgage payment without help.

The other 95%? About a fourth of them said they could have paid their mortgages, but would’ve needed to skip their car loan, groceries, utilities and other recurring bills. And although the survey didn’t say, some might have been looking ahead a month or two, to the point when they’d be out of money to pay any bills, let alone their house loan.

But a whopping 70% said they could’ve made their payments, but just wanted a break from them.

An analysis by Black Knight found similar results, though not quite as blatant. Of the owners the firm counted in active forbearance at the end of April, 46% went ahead and made their full April house payment anyway. That’s roughly 1.4 million borrowers.

Remember way back in late March, when lenders started allowing borrowers to skip payments? Relief was supposed to be for those who needed it.

“We’re operating on the honor system,” Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a television interview at the time. “This is supposed to be limited to if you’ve lost your job, you’ve lost income ... If you can pay your mortgage, please do so, because we really need to focus on the people who can’t.”

Folks have been able to get away with essentially cheating because they didn’t have to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes to do so. All they had to do was apply: Under the CARES Act, no one needs to prove a hardship. But 70% of recipients told LendingTree they just wanted a month or two -- or three or four! -- off.

Some said they felt ashamed -- as well they should, if they took what they didn’t really need. But if their need was real, the shame was unwarranted. “Asking for help isn’t easy when you fall on hard times,” said LendingTree economist Tendayi Kapfidze.

Generally, women were more likely to feel “not at all” guilty about applying for help (44%) compared with men (25%). Almost 3 out of 4 baby boomers reported feeling no guilt at all, compared to 30% of millennials and 20% of Gen Xers.

That’s funny, because younger owners were more likely to apply for forbearance, according to the poll: About 36% of millennials and 35% of Gen Xers sought help, compared with only 3.5% of boomers. Which makes sense, as older owners are more likely to own their homes outright, Kapfidze explained.

The survey also found that while women were less likely to seek forbearance than men, approval rates between the genders were similar. What wasn’t similar? The approval rates between high-income borrowers and the rest of us. Of applicants with annual incomes above $100,000, the approval rate was nearly 89%. For applicants with incomes between $25,000 and $50,000, however, approval percentages were in the low 50s.

“One explanation,” said Kapfidze, “may be that lenders see higher-income earners as more likely to repay missed payments later down the line.”

Or maybe those applicants were just quicker. Or less honest.

While we’re on the topic of chicanery, it should also be noted that some landlords are scamming the system, too. According to a recent report by ProPublica, a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power, landlords in at least four states -- Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas -- have violated the CARES Act’s eviction ban.

It’s impossible to know how widespread the violations are; there is no national database of eviction filings. They are typically handled in city or county courts, only some of which post cases online, making them difficult to track. But ProPublica suggests there are far more instances of people being thrown to the curb than it uncovered.

The CARES Act bans eviction in all federally backed rental units nationwide -- more than a quarter of the total. ProPublica chose the four states based on their populations, easy access to online records and an increasing number of new cases. Since its report, several of the landlords it flagged have rescinded their eviction filings.

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