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Some Buyers, Sellers Soldier On

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 8th, 2020

New and existing houses aren’t selling like they were prior to the pandemic. But people are still selling and buying houses.

In January and February, the market was heading toward its best year in ages. New construction was selling at about 14% over the first two months of 2019, and existing places were changing hands at a rate not seen since early 2007. But then the business all but shut down, even though real estate is considered an essential economic activity in most places.

According to the latest information from the National Association of Home Builders, most builders say COVID-19 has curtailed traffic at model homes -- often dramatically. Builders have already experienced a 20% drop in sales compared to last year, according to the RCLCO advisory firm, and they are bracing for a 50% drop by summer.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reports that 9 in 10 of its members have seen a decline in buyer interest in resale houses. Half of those Realtors have seen drops of 50% or more. Most buyers are delaying their purchases for a few months, but some are out of the market indefinitely. (The figures cited here are national; your market may be markedly different.)

Nevertheless, some buyers and sellers are soldiering on.

“Deals are still happening. There’s been a lot of really good activity,” reports Coldwell Banker agent Jill Eber in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

Aaron Kirman, a Compass agent in Beverly Hills, California, says he’s currently working on eight or nine deals. Fellow Beverly Hills agent Joyce Rey, with Coldwell Banker, has four deals under contract at the moment.

Pending home sales in Sarasota County, Florida, were up 69% in the first two weeks of April compared to the first two weeks of March. That’s especially promising, because in that market, the first half of the month is often weaker than the last, reports agent Robert Goldman of Michael Saunders & Co. in Venice, Florida.

Still, there is no denying that sales have cratered overall. But if you are a serious buyer or seller, now may be as good a time as any to go for it.

Some tips for sellers:

-- People who are looking right now are serious buyers. They’re not tire-kickers who visit open houses on the weekends for fun.

-- With so many sellers taking their houses off the market, you have less competition right now than at any time in the past year.

-- You stand a better change of getting your asking price, or something close to it, now than sometime down the road. No one knows what the future holds, but if the pandemic lasts too many more months, experts expect prices to tumble.

-- You may not need to show your house in person. NAR says 25% of its members worked with at least one buyer in mid-April who made an offer on a place they never physically visited. “If a buyer wants to buy,” says Kirman, “I think you have a greater chance of getting a better deal today than in three months. I’d rather be ahead of the curve.”

Tips for buyers:

-- Honest-to-goodness sellers may be anxious, so make your best offer and see what happens. “If you identify a property you really love, go for it,” advises Eber. “Make an offer. I don’t have a crystal ball, but if you wait, there won’t be enough properties to satisfy the pent-up demand.”

-- There are fewer buyers in the market, so you, too, have less competition. That means you might be able to be a tad more discerning, advises Jay Parker of Douglas Elliman Real Estate in South Florida.

-- There are going to be hurdles along the way. Some lenders, though not all, are exercising caution: raising their minimum credit score and down payment requirements.

-- Seeing houses in person could be problematic. “Virtual tours are important,” says Tim Sullivan of Meyers Research, a new home market advisory firm. “But they don’t take the place of an in-person visit.”

Be that as it may, many realty agents already had programs such a virtual tours in place prior to the pandemic, and those who didn’t are adding them as quickly as they can. Ditto for appraisers, title companies, closing agents and the like.

-- Mortgage rates have dipped to their lowest level in decades. As of this writing, the Mortgage Bankers Association pegged the 30-year, fixed-rate loan at 3.45%. But Freddie Mac says it slipped to 3.31% in mid-April. “It’s practically free money,” says loan broker Grant Stern of Morningside Mortgage in Miami.

However, actually securing financing at a decent price may be a formidable challenge. Many lenders are taking and processing applications electronically, but risk-sharing overlay fees on top of loan rates have tripled since the beginning of last year, reports Karan Kaul of the Urban Institute. That adds to the cost of the loan.

At the same time, if you don’t feel comfortable dabbling while most people are staying home and social-distancing, there’s nothing wrong at all with playing a waiting game. Realize, though, that the housing market is very likely to be much different a few months from now than it is today.

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Appraisals, Inspections On Different Paths

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 1st, 2020

If you are intent on buying a home during the pandemic, obtaining an appraisal shouldn’t stand in your way. But procuring a home inspection may be another question.

In New York, California and other states, real estate agents, appraisers and home inspectors are considered “essential employees.” But others aren’t so lenient. Pennsylvania, for example, has prohibited in-person appraisals, inspections and even final walk-throughs.

Even where these necessary tasks are allowed, though, professionals must follow statewide health mandates and adhere to local rules, which may be more restrictive.

To do their jobs, appraisers are using technology to value properties instead of taking a firsthand look around. But independent inspectors can’t do that. They have to crawl over, under and inside your house to create their reports, and they have to do so in person. There’s nothing yet that would allow them to do otherwise.

For the uninitiated, there are major differences between appraisals and home inspections. You pay for both, but that’s where the similarities end.

Appraisers work on behalf of lenders to assign a valuation to the property they are lending against. Their work tells lenders, should they have to foreclose because you fail to make your payments, what the place should be worth when the lender repossesses it for resale.

Home inspectors are hired by buyers -- and sometimes sellers, too -- to go over the house from stem to stern to determine whether the place is structurally sound, whether the systems are in good working order and whether there are any material defects that impact the home’s livability.

If what the inspector finds is not satisfactory, you can back out of the deal, or you can negotiate with the seller about how to fix the house’s issues. You can demand that the seller make and pay for the repairs, for example, or perhaps you can split the cost.

By comparison, there is no bargaining with appraisers, unless they are way, way off base. They set the value, and the bank will not lend anything more than a percentage of that amount -- take it or leave it. There are ways to protest the valuation, but they rarely work. So if the appraisal comes in too low, the buyer has to come up with more cash or the seller has to lower the price.

To keep home sales afloat as people deal with social distancing, federal regulators have loosened the rules considerably. Under the new, but temporary, criteria, exterior-only appraisals or valuations powered by artificial intelligence -- aka “desktop” appraisals -- are permissible. That way, appraisers need not go inside.

And now, three federal regulators have said that for the next year, banks do not need an appraisal until up to 120 days after the loans have closed. But that applies only to institutions they regulate, and only those loans they keep in their portfolios, as opposed to selling them to investors. There’s no word yet on whether other lending overseers will follow suit.

The authorities have encouraged lenders to accept truncated appraisals, but some, worried about potential repercussions, have balked. So appraisers are turning to sellers for help, asking them to photograph their home’s interiors and upload the pictures so they can obtain as close a look as possible until the pandemic ends.

Toward that end, several companies have come out with software to improve the process. With one from Bradford Technologies, the appraiser shares a unique link with the seller, who uses it to submit geo-coded photos of the home’s interior. The seller is led through a series of questions, such as, “Have any upgrades been made to the kitchen or baths?” and “How old is the roof?”

Founder Jeff Bradford says he knows of some appraisers who are still performing interior inspections, even though “it’s a dangerous time to do so.” If they are carrying the coronavirus, even if they’re asymptomatic, they are “like bees pollinating an orchard” as they go from house to house, he says.

Home inspectors don’t have the luxury of working from home, but some are soldiering on. With fewer sales being recorded, you’d think they’d be readily available to take on assignments. But that’s not always the case.

Bill Walker, a third-generation home inspector in the Washington, D.C., area, says two of his inspectors won’t come to work, and he and his other inspector will only examine totally vacant houses.

Walker normally probes five or six houses a week; now he’s lucky to do three. And he’s requiring sellers to sign hold-harmless agreements “so they can’t blame us if they get the virus.”

“Normally, this is at a time of year when our phones are ringing off the hook. By Sunday night, you’d book the entire week,” he says. “But now, calls are way down, more than 50 percent off. We could do more inspections, but the virus is now part of the equation.”

Meanwhile, the big home-inspection chains like Pillar to Post and HouseMasters are requiring their franchisees to follow all CDC guidelines: Practice safe distancing, wash hands, wear masks and gloves and sanitize all surfaces. But even at that, says HouseMaster’s Kathleen Kuhn, some sellers won’t allow anyone inside.

HouseMasters inspectors now sometimes ask owners to leave the house while they perform their exams. And if they can’t be gone for the three or four hours an inspection typically takes, they are asked to isolate themselves in one part of the house and stay away from the inspector. In some instances, examiners just look at exteriors. “At least clients are getting some information,” say Kuhn.

Kuhn says some of her franchisees, especially those who are older or have underlying illnesses, have shut down until the pandemic subsides. “We’ve seen other significant declines in our 40 years,” she says. “But never anything like this. It’s pretty bad.”

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Water, Water Everywhere

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | April 24th, 2020

Water might not be on many homebuyers’ radar screens. But it sure is becoming a more important feature, both inside and outside the house.

At both the recent International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas and the Consumer Electronics Show, a number of water-related products drew more than passing attention. And a report from one of the housing industry’s top advisory firms found that 90% of the top-selling master-planned communities in the country include a “significant” water amenity.

Not only that, but in working on her year-end summary of the top MPCs, John Burns Real Estate Consulting’s research manager Devyn Bachman found what she calls some “amazing water-inspired” features.

Crystal Lagoons tops the list. Bachman called them “easily the most discussed major master-planned community amenity in the last decade.”

These man-made bodies of water use far fewer chemicals and less energy than conventional swimming pools, and can be dozens of acres in size. They’re all over the world, with 17 now planned, under construction or in operation in the U.S.

If one large body of water is good, then several mini-bodies are better -- at least, that’s what GL Homes in Florida discovered. After years of putting lakes of up to 35 acres in its communities, the builder switched to several smaller lakes of 8.5 acres or less, thereby generating more water-view lots and greater lot premiums.

At The Woodlands, outside Houston, the developer built and stocked 44 fishing ponds, most of which operate on a catch-and-release basis. And in California, Rancho Mission Viejo added age-restricted swimming pools for residents who don’t want to live in an age-restricted community, but don’t want to splash around with a bunch of kids, either.

Lazy rivers are standard now at water parks, but the one at Sunfield near Austin, Texas, goes one better. A meandering 1,000-foot-long stream carries residents through their entire amenity center: from the volleyball and basketball courts, under or around several waterfalls and into the lagoon-like pool.

And how many properties can claim their own canoe and kayak launch? Riverwalk in Rock Hill, South Carolina, not only features a launch into the calm waters of the Catawba River, but also offers courses for paddlers of any age.

On a smaller scale, for buyers who don’t want to share in the expense of maintaining a big pool complex, The Groves, near Houston, Texas, offers a splash pad, “where a kid can be a kid, no matter their age.” There’s also a stocked pond for catch-and-release fishing.

Advisory firm RCLCO ranked the top-selling MPCs, and found that Nocatee, near Jacksonville, Florida -- the fourth-best-seller of the decade -- has a four-story above-ground interactive spray playground, similar to those found at water parks. In the wading pools, water can bubble, squirt and rain down while poolgoers wade, swim, slide or play.

“It takes an innovative and strategic mindset to stay a step ahead of the competition,” says RCLCO’s Brad Hunter. “Differentiation of amenities is one way that successful developers are doing that.”

Meanwhile, nothing water-related makes any of the numerous buyer-preference surveys, even when the question involves conserving energy or resources. But that hasn’t stopped manufacturers from coming forward with products that could one day be included in model homes.

One such product, LeakSmart, was named one of nine “Green Innovations of the Year” by Green Builder magazine. It not only detects a leak somewhere in a home’s plumbing system, a sensor sounds an alarm and shuts down the main water supply.

Unnecessary? Think again. According to one source, the typical homeowner is 10 times more likely to incur damage from a water leak than a fire. About 40% of damaging leaks occur inside the walls, and another 40% from appliances. And the damage can be costly: almost $10,000 per incident.

Two other neat products can save on the municipal water grid by taking drinkable water right out of the air. Using heat-exchange technology, units by Watergen deliver safe, fresh H20. Large Watergen units can be installed on rooftops, and smaller ones go in the kitchen. A similar product, Zero Mass, needs only sunlight and air to make drinking water. And since the average family uses 20 liters of water daily for drinking, and 300 to 500 liters more for household uses like bathing, dishwashing and clothes-washing, every little bit helps.

Then there’s OxiCool, a clean-technology air-conditioning system that uses pure water as the only refrigerant. Opt for this, and you’ll eliminate the need for electricity, toxic gases and high pressure to air-condition your house.

Another innovator, NRCR, exhibited a condensing tankless water heater that recirculates the water until it is needed -- thus eliminating waste and keeping the hot stuff closer to the outlet, where it is delivered on demand. And Nano, a high-efficiency toilet from Niagara, offers flush options using as little as 0.5 gallons of water.

Other plumbing innovations: American Standard exhibited a kitchen faucet with a dial that can measure and dispense an exact amount of water, from half a cup to 5 cups, eliminating guesswork and waste while cooking. And Voltea has a softening filtration system that provides purified water to every faucet in the house without the use of salt or chemicals.

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