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Odd Lots: Survival Rates, Single Women, Fake Employers

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | February 14th, 2020

It may never be too early to become a homeowner. But for some, it may be better to wait until they mature a tad.

That’s one of the findings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. It tracked lifetime homeownership rates and how long individuals sustained ownership, covering the years from 1979 (when most participants were between the ages of 17 and 21) to 2016.

In contrast to the homeownership rate, which measures ownership at a specific point in time, the lifetime rate measures whether someone has been a homeowner at any point in his or her life. And concurrently, it can show how long people survive as owners once they take the plunge.

As economists at the National Association of Home Builders read the results, survival rates gradually improved as the studied cohort grew into their 30s.

Of those who became owners in 1980 at around age 23, only 53% were owners after eight years. But of those who joined the ranks in 1992, in their mid-30s, 88% were still owners eight years later.

Another observation from the NAHB: Most likely the result of the Great Recession, survival rates fell steeply between 2004 and 2012. Those who bought just prior to the downturn were most likely to fall by the wayside, because they bought at the top of the market and had little time to build equity before prices crashed.

As they say, timing is everything.

Single women may earn just 79 cents, on average, for every dollar earned by men. But they own more homes than single men, according to an analysis from online mortgage marketplace LendingTree.

In total, unmarried women own more than 1.5 million more homes than unwed men in America’s 50 largest metro areas: about 5.1 million homes to men’s 3.5 million. There isn’t a single Top 50 metro where men out-own women.

Women also take out more equity-conversion mortgages than men, and almost as many as married couples, according to data shared by the Department of Housing and Urban Development at a recent industry gathering.

Nearly 40% of such mortgages insured by the government last year were to multiple borrowers (likely married couples). But 38% went to single women -- most likely recent widows who found themselves short on cash.

Fannie Mae, the big secondary mortgage market entity that purchases loans from other lenders, now has a catalog of 65 fake outfits listed as employers on loan applications -- businesses whose existences could not be confirmed.

There are all sorts of tipoffs. One is that the occupation listed by the borrower does not credibly coincide with the borrower’s age or experience. Another is that the applicant has only been on the job for a short time.

Other red flags: Prior employment is listed as “student,” the starting salary appears high, the employer’s stated location can’t be ascertained, the templates of submitted pay stubs are strikingly similar to those of other fake employers, and the pay stubs lack such typical withholding items as health and medical insurance.

In one case, the would-be borrower said he’d been a student prior to his current job. But he claimed three years of work experience, and had only been at the job three months. In other instance, the applicant’s pay stub didn’t match previous stubs from the same employer.

Remember, boys and girls: It is a federal crime to prevaricate on an application for a mortgage.

Home-sellers last year nailed a gain of $65,000, a 13-year high, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ end-of-year report.

Notice we didn’t use the word “profit” or the term “pocketed.” Because people probably didn’t do either.

The gain, as measured by the data analytics company, is based on the selling price minus the purchase price. It’s highly likely these folks spent some money from their own resources to improve their properties -- and that’s a debit, not a credit, on every homeowner’s scorecard. So is whatever they may have had to lay out at closing on behalf of the buyer.

Sure, we can “deduct” the cost of a kitchen or bath remodel, as well as some other expenses. But it’s still money out-of-pocket that has to come off the bottom line before figuring your profit, or return on investment.

That said, sellers last year still did better than the previous group, when the gain on the typical sale was “only” $58,100. One reason: People had been in their houses a wee bit longer than in 2018. Indeed, tenure last year -- 8.21 years -- was the longest since 2000.

According to a recent report from the CBC Mortgage Agency, families provide financial assistance on about a third of all purchase transactions in which the financing is insured by Uncle Sam.

But because minorities often don’t have the inter-generational wealth to help their family members, down payment assistance has become an effective tool for them to achieve ownership, a status they might not otherwise be able to afford.

A CBC study found that more than half of borrowers receiving assistance in the form of grants, silent second mortgages and the like were racial or ethnic minorities, and more than a third were the first in their families to buy a house.

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A Little Schooling Goes a Long Way

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | February 7th, 2020

Obtaining an affordable mortgage is an art, not a science, especially for first-time buyers, and is just as important as finding an affordable house.

Fortunately, homebuyer education -- learning how to cover your down payment and closing costs, in particular -- can provide real traction toward financing your first home. Moreover, you can save thousands of dollars in lenders’ fees if you mind the wise words of the old Smokey Robinson song “Shop Around.”

Taking a class for a few weeks is an excellent way for first-timers to learn about credit and mortgages. On certain types of loans, homebuyer education is a requirement. And repeat buyers could learn a lot, as well -- especially if they haven’t been in the market for some time.

Marisa Calderon, executive director of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, sees a little schooling as useful across the entire spectrum of buyers. “Education is helpful regardless of anyone’s financial situation, especially when it comes to the nuances of managing homeownership,” she says.

The big mortgage agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae often require homebuyer education to qualify for specialty loan programs. With Fannie’s HomeReady, designed for low-income borrowers, completing the course gives qualified buyers a shot at financing with just 3% down -- a far cry from the 20% many loans require.

Homebuyer education programs vary, but they have some common traits. They teach students the ins and outs of credit scores, as well as how and when to pay bills, balance a checkbook, save money and live within their means.

Classes also cover how to manage student loans and other debt; the value of nontraditional forms of credit, such as timely rent payments, cellphone bills and utility bills; and overcoming a reluctance to use credit cards to establish and build credit records.

Far from being just for first-timers, counseling benefits homeowners at all stages. For example, seniors looking to access the equity they’ve built in their homes through reverse mortgages are required to visit a counselor by the Federal Housing Administration, which insures the bulk of these loans.

Even proprietary reverses originated by lenders outside the FHA limits come with a counseling requirement; the sessions are usually handled by the same counselors who work on government-insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgages. Low-down-payment loans or loans that come with some form of assistance are really where the rubber meets the road. For example, the congressionally chartered nonprofit NeighborWorks America has just unveiled a program for Alaska residents who earn 100% or less of the median income in their areas. It offers a $10,000 forgivable loan for buyers who successfully complete an educational component.

“A knowledgeable borrower is a sustainable borrower,” says Stephen Barbier, the relationship manager at NeighborWorks.

“Homebuyer education and counseling create knowledgeable buyers, who save money through awareness of affordable loan products and down-payment assistance, he said. “(It also helps buyers) understand the rights and responsibilities of homeownership, and ensures they have a trusted adviser to turn to with questions.”

The number of buyers receiving such aid recently doubled, according to Freddie Mac. In a survey by Freddie Mac and Down Payment Resource, which tracks programs available in every state, 5% of respondents reported receiving a loan or assistance from either a nonprofit or a government program in 2013. By 2016, that figure increased to 10%.

There’s quite a bit of help available, if you know where to find it. Of the 2,500 homeownership programs in DPR’s database, 83% had down-payment funds available at last count.

Yet DPR’s Rob Chrane says the availability of assistance is not as well-known as it should be.

“Research and data show there is a wide gap between consumer perception of what it takes to buy a home and what it really takes,” he says. ”Sixty-five percent in a recent survey thought they needed 15% for a down payment. That’s pretty far off the mark.”

Mounzer Aylouche, vice president of homeownership programs at MassHousing, says an assistance program his group has started has “made an indent” in affording the very pricey Boston market.

The agency offers financing with just 3% down to buyers with incomes at or below the median in the Boston area. Moreover, the down payment can be funded by a second mortgage of up to $12,000 at just 1% interest.

The program is so successful, it is being expanded to include “workforce” housing for buyers who earn more than 100% of Boston’s annual median income. In this case, a 2% loan of up to $15,000 will help offset participants’ closing costs.

Another way to cut your upfront costs is to bargain with your lender about its fees. Closing costs can be daunting, but they don’t have to leave you with nothing in the bank. You can save thousands by shopping around.

Mortgage platform LendingTree reports that buyers can be saddled with as many as 16 different fees during the mortgage process. In last year’s first quarter, these charges added up to a median of $2,059 for buyers and $1,807 for owners who were refinancing.

But by shopping lenders -- or by using some good old-fashioned jawboning -- some borrowers got away with paying nothing at all in fees, once again showing the value of learning about mortgages before taking the leap into homeownership.

-- Freelance writer Mark Fogarty contributed to this report.

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Don’t Bite Off Too Much House

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | January 31st, 2020

Only your lender can tell you how much you can spend on a house. But you don’t have to spend that much, and probably shouldn’t. You need some wiggle room -- especially if you’re a first-time buyer.

Broker Steve Godzyk in Manchester, New Hampshire, recently had a client who didn’t heed that warning, and she’s likely to be sorry. A single mother of two, she told Godzyk that after paying the house note, she’s left with no money to have fun or go anywhere with the kids.

During the house-hunt, she’d insisted on searching at the top price her lender said she qualified for. When Godzyk asked why she wouldn’t buy in a lower price range so she would have money left over after paying her mortgage, she replied, “The loan officer said I can buy a home at that price, and I will.”

Being “house poor” is no fun, and it doesn’t take long for a dream house to become a nightmare. And Godzyk’s client appears to be far from alone in shooting for the moon.

A new report from mortgage analytics firm Black Knight found that 1% of all loans taken out in last year’s first quarter were delinquent within six months. Sure, 1% doesn’t sound like a lot in the greater scheme of things, but that’s the most since 2010 -- and an increase of more than 60% over the past two years.

Here’s more proof some buyers are biting off more than they can chew: In another recent study, Clever Real Estate, a site that matches buyers with agents, found that 35% of mortgage complaints submitted to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2018 were from people who were struggling to pay their mortgages, suggesting they were overextended.

It’s even happening in the rental sector, according to Zumper, a leasing platform, which says a third of all millennials spend more than 30% of their incomes -- the standard measure of affordability -- on rent.

Lenders base their decisions about the maximum they will lend on several factors. Credit scores are key, but they also give heavy credence to your debt-to-income ratio, or DTI, which is calculated by dividing your total monthly debt expenses -- like vehicle, credit card and student loan payments -- by your gross monthly income.

Generally, lenders won’t approve mortgages for people who spend more than 43% of their income on recurring monthly payments. But that cutoff “is hardly a steadfast rule,” says Clever Real Estate research analyst Francesca Ortegren, who found that 15% of the loans written in 2018 were to borrowers above that ceiling.

Indeed, Middletown, Connecticut, mortgage broker George Souto says some conventional lenders will go up to 50%, while those pushing government-backed FHA financing will go as high as 55%.

Don’t go that high, though. Why? If you add the cost of your new mortgage to your monthly debt load, it leaves little or nothing for utilities, maintenance, food, gas, clothing, school supplies and all those other things you spend money on, month in and month out -- items your lender doesn’t pay any attention to when calculating your DTI.

“This is an insane way to go into homeownership,” Lise Howe of Keller Williams Capital Properties in Washington, D.C., warned recently on the ActiveRain real estate site. “A lender may approve you for a mortgage at a high amount, but it might not make good financial sense to borrow all that money.”

To avoid debt overload, start by picking your realty agent carefully. Your lender, too. You want to deal with professionals who have your best interests at heart, not their own.

“There are agents who will test your discipline,” says Barbara Todaro of RE/MAX Executive Realty in Franklin, Massachusetts. “If your pre-approval reflects a large number, they’ll start their showings with that luxury home, and everything else will look like a fix-and-flip.”

New Lenox, Illinois, mortgage broker Gene Mundt agrees. “A good lender fulfills a larger role than someone who facilitates a mortgage,” he advises.

Another good step is to prepare two budgets: one so you know exactly what you are spending now, and the other so you’ll know what you will be paying once you buy a house. That way, you won’t be giving your lender the power to determine how much you can spend on your house.

Some items will shift, of course. If you are paying renter’s insurance now, for example, you can forget that number -- but make sure you include an amount for homeowner’s coverage in the second budget. It’s required, as is mortgage insurance. Some of these costs can be included as part of your monthly house payment, but they add substantially to an amount above and beyond principal and interest.

Make sure you include everything, from your cable and internet bills to your cellphone. And allow amounts for food, entertainment, transportation and whatever else you can think of. Later, if you decide to lower some of these expenses or dump them entirely, you can. But at least you’ll know going in what you have going out.

Making these lists will take some time, but it’s well worth it. Budgeting allows borrowers to determine their own fates, advises Ortegren. It’s “a simple way to avoid overspending,” she says.

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