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Odd Lots: Cash, Apocalypse, Worries

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 30th, 2019

Homebuyers sometimes pour every dollar they have into the transaction. But it’s important to maintain a reserve, should something unexpected strike.

How important? A new study found that buyers with post-closing liquidity of three months or more were five times less likely to default on their mortgages.

Specifically, the research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute found that borrowers with three of four mortgage payments’ worth of money in the bank had a three-year default rate of 0.3 percent. On the other hand, the default rate for those with less than the cash equivalent of one month’s payment was 1.8 percent.

While neither of those is particularly high, the difference is striking -- so much so, that buyers should consider slowing the purchase process down until they’ve built up a cushion, should something go wrong after they move in.

Sign of the Apocalypse, Part One (apologies to Sports Illustrated): Stock brokerage EF Hutton has admitted in court that it has defaulted on its mortgage on the 10-story EF Hutton Tower in downtown Springfield, Ohio -- one of the largest buildings in the city. The troubled company had suspended operations in April.

In its court filing, the firm agreed that it owed more than $4.6 million on a loan taken out just last year. It also owes Clark County $67,000 in back property taxes, according to the Springfield News-Sun, and $7.5 million on an unsecured note it used to purchase the structure in September 2016.

Sign of the Apocalypse, Part Two: A Pennsylvania bank has filed a foreclosure action against the Conneaut Lake Park Volunteer Fire Department to collect more than $400,000 in unpaid debt, interest and penalties. This follows a judgment the bank filed against the department for defaulting on three construction loans.

The bank wants the building back so it can sell it for some $382,000, according to the filing. Meanwhile, the fire department, which was organized in 1933, remains active answering calls; it serves the western portion of Sadsbury Township, near Philadelphia. Its social club, with a restaurant and liquor license, remains open.

Selling a house makes some people want to cry -- more than once, according to research from Zillow. And the simple act of living in a house or apartment causes some folks to lose sleep over covering their monthly payments, says Bankrate.com.

The sales process is so stressful that more than a third of the sellers queried said they were brought to tears. Of those, 1 in 5 said they had cried at least five times. Millennials and parents were the most likely to tear up.

“Our survey found more Americans were more stressed over selling their homes than planning a wedding, getting fired or becoming a parent,” said Zillow’s Jeremy Wacksman.

Stress comes in many waves, according to the survey. Some 70% were freaked out over uncertainty about their asking price, and 69% worried their homes wouldn’t sell in their desired time frame. Even after accepting an offer, 65% stewed about whether the contract would fall through.

Buying another house at the same time you’re selling is especially daunting. Nearly 7 out of 10 mistimed the process, with more than a third admitting the sale of their old house took longer than expected.

Meanwhile, Bankrate’s poll of 2,500 people found that 18% lose sleep worrying about making their mortgage or rent payments. Almost a third toss and turn over everyday expenses.

You’ve heard of storm chasers, those bravehearts who follow tornadoes as they cross the land. Now come the baby chasers: baby boomers who plan to move near their grandchildren when they retire.

Consulting firm Meyers Research says 25% of boomers are following their adult children so they can be closer to their kids’ own youngsters, even if it means moving to another state or less favorable climate. That’s just the opposite of previous generations, who moved away from their children, not to them, says the firm’s Tim Sullivan.

According to director of economic research Ali Wolf, Grandma and Grandpa want to downsize, but without sacrificing quality. Their preferred house has less than 2,500 square feet -- “smaller, but not small,” says Wolf.

The firm found that boomers hope to pay for their new digs with the proceeds from the sale of their current residences.

The item above begs the question: How close is too close, when it comes to living near family? An Ally Home survey put that question to some 2,000 adults across all age demographics, and the largest segment of respondents said that a drive of 15-45 minutes is just right.

In other words, grandparents, siblings and adult children should all maintain some distance from one another if they want to maintain healthy relationships.

A little more than a third (37%) of all respondents agreed that family should not live close enough to just pop in whenever they want, with an even greater percentage of millennials (42%) feeling that way.

Finally, a word of caution to the old folks thinking about becoming baby chasers: By a slim percentage point, adults would rather have their siblings and/or their own adult children living nearby than their parents.

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Lighting Up Kitchens, Baths

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 23rd, 2019

In the not-to-distant future -- circa 2025 or so -- kitchens in new homes may be little more than a table that displays recipes and menus, cooks food, warms drinks, and charges mobile devices. IKEA calls this concept the Table for Living.

Sony, on the other hand, has a different take. The electronics giant thinks tomorrow’s kitchen will be somewhat more elaborate, with robotic arms dropping down to chop vegetables, cook your food and then deliver it to the table.

But those concepts are far down the road. After all, six years is an eternity in the housing business. What you will be seeing next spring, if not this fall, are kitchens and baths with extra windows for more natural light, splashes of color, and a lot of mix-and-match styles, according to the latest research from the Meyers Group and MetroStudy.

The two major advisory firms based their findings on responses from a diverse group of 28,000 consumers, from singles to mature families, in all income ranges.

Some people don’t see much value in consumer preference surveys like this one. They view it as pie-in-the-sky data, and say only when homebuyers put their money where their mouths are will the truth be told. Perhaps so. But like it or not, builders use these studies to design their newest models. And high design is important, to both builders and buyers.

Indeed, design is second only to location when it comes to the reason people move, according to these respondents. It’s even more important than price, the size of the house or the quality of the local schools. And as far as builders are concerned, kitchens and bathrooms are high-value design areas.

“That’s where people live,” says Mollie Carmichael, a principal in the Meyers firm. “It’s where their families gather.”

As she related it in a recent webinar, the study suggests two major trends ahead for kitchens: One, which has been going on for some time now, is a shift to a more modern look, especially in higher-end houses. The other is “a huge trend towards more light,” which makes kitchens not only feel larger but also feel better.

“Light matters,” said Carmichael, who has also worked for giant builders Lennar and Pulte. “It makes everything feel bigger.”

That’s especially true when it is accompanied by better storage, which is another item for which would-be buyers are hunting. And builders should be going to great lengths to give it to them. “Well-planned storage can make a 2,000 square-foot space seem like 2,500,” Carmichael said.

Look for above-the-counter shelving and cabinetry you can pull down and pop back up, and serving centers in the kitchen instead of the dining room. Another possibility: slimmer, possibly longer, kitchen islands that don’t take up as much space but are just as functional. “It will feel more like entertainment space and less like utilitarian space,” she said.

Also look for more color in the kitchen. White is still the dominant cabinet color, and Carmichael believes it will remain so. But black accents “will be everywhere,” perhaps on window frames to start with, but branching out from there.

You might also see builders experimenting with three white walls and a brighter, bolder color on the fourth wall, or maybe darker, contrasting kitchen islands. Anything that adds depth.

Colorful appliances -- bright red or heather green, for example -- aren’t new, but they’ve become “a bigger phenomenon” than most housing pros thought they would, she said. “They add personality to a place that should have personality. It’s eclectic, it’s fun.”

In smaller houses, where space is at a premium, homebuyers might also see smaller appliances that are just as attractive and functional as their larger brethren. Carmichael called them “right-sized appliances,” and said they aren’t just for apartments anymore. “They allow you to get more life out of your home. There’s more room for entertainment.”

In bathrooms, meanwhile, the research shows that people still favor tubs and showers in their main baths. And 2 out of 5 prefer freestanding tubs, even when they are an “extra” not included in the base price. Tiled shower floors instead of pans are hot, too, as are zero-threshold entries, dual showerheads and, in some cases, no shower doors.

Finally, laundry room suites are continuing to gain importance. They’re growing in size because a third of respondents want a mudroom or drop zone for bags and packages. And 3 out of 5 are willing to pay extra for built-in pet spaces, such as a dog-washing zone.

Others want a small office, and almost all mentioned a need for a space to recharge their electronic devices -- perhaps tucked away in a drawer for a cleaner look .

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Best Time to Show, Best Day to List

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 16th, 2019

Houses listed for sale on a Thursday tend to sell more quickly, and at higher prices, than those listed on any other day of the week, research shows. But what’s the best time of day to show a house?

Obviously, any time a would-be buyer wants to see your place is the “best” time to show it. If you are not willing to drop everything at a moment’s notice, your potential buyers are just as likely to move on to the competition -- perhaps never to return when it is more convenient for you.

“Show a home when the buyer wants to see it,” recommends broker Scott Godzyk of Manchester, New Hampshire. “Some buyers work nights; others, days. Some work weekends, and on and on. So when a buyer has free time, when a buyer likes your home enough to want to see it, I say let him see it.”

Godzyk offered this advice during a recent discussion on the ActiveRain real estate site. It seems he had just turned down a listing from a woman who only wanted to show her house an hour before sunset, so that she could turn on all the lights to create a better selling atmosphere.

Such a limitation hinders more than it helps, Godzyk said. Agent Larry Agranoff of Plainview, New York, agreed: “With limited showing hours, limited success.”

But more specific suggestions on the ideal time to show a house varied widely. For example, agent Bill Roberts of Oceanside, California, prefers 2 p.m. Why? “No neighbors at home, the sun is up, the kids are still in school,” he said.

Agent Kathleen Daniels of San Jose, California, likes the daytime, too, as does home stager Sharon Tara of New Hampshire.

“Showing homes in the dark is not a bright idea,” Daniels said.

“Nice, natural sunlight is the best light to show the home,” agreed Tara.

Still, sellers need to be ready anytime the phone rings. “If the seller won’t accommodate a showing,” reiterated Maryland agent Melissa Spittel, “it decreases the chance of an offer.”

While you may not have a choice on when to show your house, you do have a choice of when to list it. And on that score, research from Redfin shows that places listed on Thursday sold for an average of $3,000 more than those listed on Monday. In fact, Monday was found to be the worst day of the week to enter listings into the multiple listing service.

For its analysis, the technology-based realty chain pored over more than 5 million homes listed and sold in 2017 and 2018.

In addition to commanding higher prices, Thursday-listed houses also sold five days faster than those listed on Sunday. Houses listed on Sunday took the longest to sell, Redfin found.

When you think about it, this makes perfect sense: A Thursday listing pops up just as potential customers are planning their weekends, when the majority of house-hunting happens. Wait till Friday, and plans might already have been made. List earlier in the week, and you risk your listing being eclipsed by fresher ones later on. Thursday is the sweet spot.

“Psychologists have found that people tend to best remember the last information they saw,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather pointed out. “If you list on a Thursday, buyers will be more likely to see your listing ... right before they go out and tour over the weekend.”

Homes listed on Sunday, meanwhile, tend to take the longest to sell, largely because buyers wait until the next weekend to restart their home search.

Looking at this another way, Thursday listings sold for about 0.74% more, relative to their listing prices, than those listed on Monday. (Remember, the study period was a time when sellers in many markets were fielding multiple offers.)

Finally, astute readers may have noticed there has been no mention here about the best month or date of the year to buy a house. The omission is purposeful, because studies that purport to show that a certain month or date is best are not really accurate.

Most such surveys look at the month sales contracts close, not the month in which they originated. A sale may not close for a month or two after the initial contract is signed. Consequently, the month the deal closes is relatively meaningless. Ditto for the date.

A case in point: ATTOM Data Solutions recently reported that the five best days to sell a home -- that is, the days that command the largest premiums above the seller’s asking price -- are in May and June. But a closer look at the study’s methodology reveals that the data comes from the dates the deeds are signed over to the buyer. And that takes place at closing -- weeks, and sometimes months, after contracts are signed.

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