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Odd Parcels: Bargains, Wars, Gains, Tenure

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | April 19th, 2019

Just because a house is described as a bargain doesn’t mean it is one. On the contrary: It may be overpriced.

According to Trulia, houses listed as “bargains,” “deals” or some other catchphrase are sometimes listed for more than their estimated value. Researchers at the real estate site combed through listings over the previous year, finding that places in 35 of the top 100 markets nationally were not the great buys they were said to be.

In other words, Trulia reported, “some deals are too good to be true.”

In Cape Coral, Florida, for example, nearly 6 percent of the houses listed for sale over the last 12 months were advertised as bargains, but only a third of those were actually priced below their estimated value.

On the other hand, notoriously pricey San Jose and San Francisco tended to have the most so-called bargain listings that deserved the name. At the same time, though, these two Bay Area markets also had the most houses that sold for more than their asking price.

In such markets, it’s not unusual for houses that start out as good deals to end up costing the eventual winner of the bidding war more than he -- no pun intended -- bargained for.

The takeaway: Do your research. Check out what comparable houses recently sold for, and are currently listed for. Go online to determine an estimated value for the property you are considering, and compare that to the asking price.

A lot of legwork? Yes. But a good real estate agent can help. If you don’t make the effort, you could end up paying more for a “bargain” that wasn’t a bargain at all.

Redfin reports that in January, just 13 percent of its agents worked on behalf of clients in a bidding war over a particular property. That’s way, way down from 53 percent one year ago.

The percentage ticked up a bit in early March, but still, bidding wars are far less common now than at any time between 2001 and late last year.

“Buyers have heard that the market has slowed, so now they’re trying to get all of their ‘wants,’ not just their ‘needs,’” said Kalena Masching, a Redfin agent in Palo Alto, California. “They’re waiting until they find a home that can check more boxes ... In general, they are being more judicious as they think through their purchase.”

One reason for the current lack of bidding wars: The number of houses for sale is increasing, just as the number of potential buyers is subsiding. As of December, the inventory of houses for sale was up 5 percent from a year earlier, but the number of houses sold was down 11 percent.

Perhaps it’s time for sellers to recognize that the market is shifting, and that they need to be a little more reasonable when it comes to an asking price.

Sellers notched some pretty impressive gains last year, according to Attom Data Solutions, a purveyor of realty data. How does $61,000 strike you?

That’s the average gain on sale in 2018, and it’s a 12-year high. In 2017, the typical profit was a “mere” $50,000, and in 2016, it was a “paltry” $39,500.

The 2018 gain represented a 32.6 percent return on investment -- the price the seller paid for the place -- but does not include the cost of any improvements made to the property.

In other words, if a seller paid $15,000 for a new roof during his tenure, or $20,000 for a complete kitchen remodel, his profits weren’t nearly as high. At the same time, if a seller made those improvements, the place likely sold for more than it would have otherwise.

One reason profits are up is that people are staying longer in their homes. According to Lending Tree, folks in America’s 50 largest cities are only moving about once every seven years.

A big factor there is that many seniors are electing to age in place rather than move to smaller places, warmer climates, closer to the kids, assisted living or a combination thereof. Freddie Mac figures that in 2018, 1.6 million houses were kept off the market due to seniors staying put.

For context, 1.6 million is roughly the same number of new single and multi-family housing units built every year. But more importantly, it is more than half the shortfall of 2.5 million units needed annually to meet demand. Indeed, the Urban Institute recently estimated that 3.4 million millennials are missing out on homeownership because of the truncated supply of houses for sale, among other factors.

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The Forgotten Costs of Remodeling

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | April 12th, 2019

You’ve asked three highly rated contractors to bid on your planned kitchen remodel. You made sure each quote covers exactly the same items, so you can compare them more easily. But have you made sure everything is included?

Many people don’t, and they end up paying more for their remodeling projects than they thought they would.

It’s not that remodelers are dishonest, although some certainly are. But they often leave out key costs -- sometimes to lowball their estimates so they can win the job, sometimes because they simply forget. Either way, it will end up costing you more.

Permits are one often-omitted cost. Most remodeling projects require building permits -- in Bonita Springs, Florida, you need a permit to change out a garage door, for crying out loud -- but many contractors leave this cost out. Some want their clients to obtain the necessary permits, while others just overlook it.

Either way, if a permit is necessary, don’t try to get by without one. When soliciting bids, make sure you ask that the cost of permits be included, and specify who will “pull” them. Realize, too, that the cost of one or more permits may not be a fixed amount. Depending on where you live, it could be a percentage of the total cost of the renovation.

Another cost sometimes omitted: waste removal and cleanup. If it isn’t included in the contractors’ bids, you’ll have to pay for dumpsters to be delivered, then hauled to the landfill and emptied.

Some of remodeling’s hidden costs have nothing to do with your contractor. For instance, your property taxes are likely to increase. Once a permit is pulled, the local tax assessors will be notified. And sooner or later, they will show up at your front door to have a look at the job and recalculate the value of your property.

In California, according to design-build firm New Avenue, the typical tax increase is 0.5 percent of the amount you spend on your project. So, if your remodeling project runs $300,000 -- things are costly in California -- you could expect an increase of $1,500 or so in your annual property taxes.

If you are renting out the property, you’ll likely recover the extra cost in the form of a higher rent. But if you are an owner-occupant, that jump has to be part of your deliberations in whether to move forward or not.

Your utility bills are likely to go up as well -- certainly during construction, if only because the workers will need heat or air conditioning to be comfortable as they perform their magic. They’ll also be going in and out constantly, which puts even more of a strain on your HVAC system.

Furthermore, you’ll be supplying the electricity needed to run those table saws, nail guns and other power tools, not to mention the water for bathroom breaks and end-of-the-day cleanup. You might even have to pay for port-a-potties if your bathrooms are being demolished, or if they’re off-limits to workers.

Figure on paying a higher homeowner’s insurance premium, too, for your improved property. And don’t forget to tell your insurer about the project ahead of time, so you’ll be covered if an accident injures an uninsured worker while on your property.

If you are yanking out walls, you might run into some unforeseen, yet costly, problems. For example, you could have a termite infestation, or you could find snakes or rodents living behind the drywall. Faulty wiring, old plumbing and hidden asbestos or lead paint will have to be taken care of, as well, and any further work will be delayed until they are.

Finally, consider the disruption that a major remodeling project will be to you and your family. Workers will show up early in the morning, upending your usual routine. If you ask that workers don’t arrive until later -- say, 9 a.m. instead of 7 -- that will only serve to lengthen the project and cause even more turmoil.

If you’re redoing your kitchen, you could be without a stove, oven or even a refrigerator for days, if not weeks. That means you’ll be eating out -- a lot -- or ordering tons of takeout. Depending on the size of your family and their tastes, that could run into the hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars.

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Tool Compares Instant Offers

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | April 5th, 2019

Sellers who receive offers to buy their homes from a third party who will fix the place up a bit and resell it are always left with a nagging question: Could I have gotten more?

Now there's a new tool to help sellers answer those questions. It's called the "Offer Optimizer," and it will help you make a side-by-side comparison of offers made online or in person. That's the only way sellers can make a sound monetary decision on how to proceed.

The "I" in the term I-Buyer stands for several things. The internet, for one, because most of these outfits work almost exclusively on the web. Instant, for another, because they promise to make you an offer within just a few days and, if you accept, to close quickly, paying you in cash.

This kind of service is nothing new. Many realty firms and agents offer what are known as "buy-in" programs that will be happy to take your property off your hands. Then there the so-called bottom-feeders like HomeVesters of "We Buy Ugly Houses" fame and House Buyers of America.

None of these buyers will pay sellers top dollar. After all, they have to make something for their troubles. Worse, the discount sometimes can be steep, as much as 50 percent less than what you might sell for on the open market if the house is in good shape and in a solid market.

Lately, though, there has been a movement to institutionalize buy-in programs so the rules are the same nationally for everyone. And everyone, it seems, is getting in on the act. So far, the leading I-Buyers are Offerpad and Opendoor, but Zillow is ramping up quickly, as is Redfin Now and several others.

Offerpad and Opendoor, the two largest players so far, work very much the same way. Take five minutes to complete Offerpad's online form -- include pictures, if you like -- and you'll receive an offer within 24 hours or so. It uses automated valuation algorithms and artificial intelligence to determine its offers, which it says are "competitive."

Similarly, tell Opendoor about your home's details and receive an offer within a few clicks. Add unique details for a more precise offer. If you accept, the company will send out an inspector to confirm what you said. And if everything checks out, you can close within a few days.

Both companies say what they pay -- in cash -- is fair, depending on the home's condition and the state of the local market. And both charge service fees "similar to what a traditional real estate agent would charge." The fee averages 6 percent with both companies. But it can be lower or higher -- lower if the house is pristine and in a hot market, and higher if it requires lots of work.

I-Buyers, sometimes known as "disruptors" because of how they hope to reshape the market, command only a small portion of the business now. One source says homes sold via instant offers accounted for a minuscule 0.2 percent of all existing home sales last year.

But they are expected to grow exponentially. In Phoenix, where several I-Buyers compete for business, they bought in 5 percent of all resale houses -- one in 20 -- in 2018. Meanwhile, Zillow has made its buy-in program a high priority. And Opendoor expects to be up and running in 50 major markets by next year.

Realize, though, that all offers are not the same. Which again begs the question: How do you know you're being offered as much as you can get?

Enter Offer Optimizer, which will make three comparisons: one from a national I-Buyer, one from a local I-Buyer and one related to what you can expect to obtain by using a local agent to sell the traditional way. If more than one I-Buyer is active in your market, the tool will obtain offers from all that are available.

The online tool will provide a detailed breakdown of each offer's fees and costs as well as the typical time frame for a sale to be completed.

At this time, the Optimizer is operational in 21 major markets where I-buying is taking hold. It's a free service from zavvie, a matching service that connects buyers and sellers to agents who specialize in their local markets and never travel far afield to score a listing or a sale.

"Time is money. The question for most sellers is: How much money?" says zavvie's Lane Hornung. The program (zavvie.com/offer-optimizer) "puts instant offers on overdrive, ensuring sellers squeeze every last dollar out of their home sale."

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