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Future Houses: Bigger But Better (First of a Two-Part Series)

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | January 4th, 2019

At this time of year, it’s always fun to look ahead to what might be; in our case, what new houses might look like in the future.

Unfortunately, no one has a crystal ball that can predict exactly how much bigger or smaller newly constructed houses will be or what will be inside. But the folks at Porch, a website that connects homeowners with professional repairmen and remodelers, have taken a shot at it.

They analyzed current and projected trends to predict what houses of the future will be like as far off as 2036. But for our purposes here, we’ll concentrate on what they think new houses will look like in 2026, just eight short years from now.

Some of Porch’s predictions seem to be off the mark, perhaps by a wide margin. Others are quite surprising. Despite the current trend for building smaller houses to combat the affordability crisis, for example, Porch boldly suggests that houses will grow larger, not slim down further, with more bedrooms and baths.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the average house in last year’s third quarter declined to 2,495 square feet. And the National Association of Home Builders says house sizes have been falling for the last three years as builders add more entry-level houses to their product mix.

But the Porch report asks: “Why have less when you could have more?”

Using Census Bureau data from 2016 as its baseline, Porch reckons that houses will be more than 200 square feet larger on average in 2026. That’s the equivalent of two rooms, 10-by-10 feet each.

All this will happen, Porch prognosticators suggest, on smaller and smaller lots, from an average of nearly 31,000 square feet in 2016 to 28,000 in 2026 and 2,050 in 2036.

One of the trends that is driving up house sizes is the number of bedrooms and baths.

Houses with two or fewer bedrooms are expected to continue to decline to only about 10 percent of all new construction in eight years, while those with three bedrooms will fall to about 39 percent. Even at that, three-bedroom abodes will still be predominant.

The rest of the new houses built in 2026 will be four bedrooms or more, Porch predicts. Nearly 37 percent of all new houses will have four bedrooms by 2026. But those with five sleeping rooms will account for more than 14 percent, a 3.6 percentage point increase from 2016.

Meanwhile, houses with a single bathroom are heading for oblivion. Two baths will continue to dominate, but they, too, will be fewer and fewer, according to Porch’s predictions. In 2026, only half of the newly built houses will have two bathrooms. The rest will have either three or four, but mostly three.

Garages will be larger in the future, Porch suggests. Only 7 percent of new homes in 2026 will have a one-car garage, while 60 percent will have room for two vehicles and 25 percent will hold three. About 8 percent won’t have a garage at all.

After a brief increase over the last decade, the number of single-story homes will decline, but just slightly over the next eight years, the report indicates. At the same time, two-story production will grow, but again, ever so slightly.

What’s all this going to cost? Porch weighs in on that, too. In 2016, it says, the average price for a 2,600-square-foot house was $198,000. In 2026, the average cost of a slightly larger 2,700-square-foot house will be $252,000, a jump of $54,000.

As Porch sees it, decks are on their way out, replaced by patios and the iconic piece of American architecture, the front porch. Ditto for fireplaces, which won’t be found in 60 percent of new construction in 2026. (Here, the report considers a fireplace as a source of heat, not for its romantic quality, which is why most people want them.)

Still, there’s more to what goes into a home than space and rooms, the report notes. “The house of the future could be more energy efficient and durable and incorporate exciting advances in automated technology.”

Along those lines, it points out, giant home builder Lennar, already pre-wiring its houses for Wi-Fi compatibility, has taken smart home technology to the next level by building Alexa, Amazon’s smart digital assistant, into all its new production. And California has mandated that solar panels be placed on every new house built within its borders.

(Next week: Future Financing)

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Odd Parcels: Kid Care, Inventory, Section 8

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 28th, 2018

To get a sense of how Uncle Sam misallocates its scarce housing assistance dollars, look no further than the differences between the Fed’s Section 8 program for low-income renters and the mortgage interest deduction claimed by buyers who finance their homes.

According to data gleaned from government sources by Apartment List, an online marketplace for renters, the mortgage interest write-off in 2015 “cost” the Treasury some $71 billion in revenue it did not collect. That’s more than double the $29.9 billion set aside for funding Sec. 8, which is usually administered through local housing authorities.

Furthermore, high-income households claim $60.6 billion, or roughly 85 percent, of the total interest deduction, and middle-income taxpayers claim $6.2 billion, or about 9 percent. Only a measly $4.2 billion is claimed by low-income taxpayers.

The Section 8 Program offers tenant-based assistance. Participants find their own housing to rent in the open market, and pay a portion of their income toward rent. The local housing authority covers the rest with Sec. 8 funds from the federal government.

Only 11 percent of low-income households, three out of four of whom are cost burdened, get help with their rents from Uncle Sam, while more than half of all high-income families claim the mortgage interest write-off.

On a dollar-to-dollar basis, Apartment List says federal housing assistance averaged $1,549 for high earners but only $416 for low-income folks.

The average cost of child care has reached a point where it is nearly equal to the U.S. median rent, according to research from HotPads, a website linking renters to properties.

The typical cost of child care is $1,385 a month, whereas the median rent is $1,500 in the 48 metropolitan areas studied. But in 12 of those regions, child care costs exceed monthly rents.

In relatively inexpensive Pittsburgh, for example, you can expect to pay $225 a month more than your rent to have someone take care of your kids. You’ll pay a lot more in rent in places like San Francisco and Los Angeles, but child care still runs about half your rent in those spots.

About half the seniors who complete government-mandated counseling to obtain a federally insured reverse mortgage -- aka Home Equity Conversion Mortgage -- go no further, according to Ibis Software, which tracks HECM counseling sessions.

The main reason most folks decide against taking out a reverse loan: They are not thrilled with how much money they’ll actually receive, according to Reverse Mortgage Daily, an online trade publication.

The appraisal may come in lower than expected, meaning applicants won’t get as much as they anticipated. Also, fees and closing costs may be too high, eating into the proceeds.

Shortages of houses for sale are starting to ease in some places. But if you’re looking for a spot where there are plenty of choices, look no further than the South Florida county of Miami-Dade.

More than 14,275 condo units are formally listed for sale there, and that doesn’t include the nearly 47,500 brand-new units currently in the development pipeline east of Interstate 95 in the tri-county region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, according to the latest figures from Condo Vultures Realty.

Based on the current sales pace in Miami-Dade, it will take 15 months to sell off what’s listed right now. A balanced market is considered six months’ worth of supply.

One reason for the inflated inventory: Inflated pricing.

In the first nine months of 2018, the average transaction price of a sold Miami-Dade condo was about $433,814, or $314 per square foot, Condo Vultures reports. But the average asking price of a still-listed apartment is about $989,550, or $554 per foot. That’s a whopping 128 percent higher than the typical price achieved between January and September of this year.

Anyone who tells you you need to have a 20 percent down payment doesn’t know what he or she is talking about. Many loan programs out there call for only a 3 percent down payment, and some even allow for someone to contribute to that amount on your behalf.

Nevertheless, if 20 percent is your unnecessary goal, it will take 7.2 years to save enough to buy a median-priced house, according to research economists at Zillow. That’s an increase of 1.5 years from 30 years ago. And that’s even if your rate of savings matched that of buyers three decades ago.

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Odd Parcels: Underwater, Scam Alert

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | December 21st, 2018

Nearly 26 percent of all home owners were equity rich in this year’s third quarter, but a floundering 9 percent were seriously underwater, according to Attom Data Solutions.

An equity rich property is one in which the owner owes 50 percent or less of its estimated current value, and Attom says there are 14.5 million of them. On the other hand, more than 4.9 million owners had a combined loan balance secured by their houses that was at least 25 percent above their current value.

Which raises the question, why do underwater homeowners continue to make their mortgage payments when it will be a long time, if ever, until their houses are worth more than they owe? Or better yet, until their houses are valued at 10 percent above market, because that’s the generally accepted break-even point after paying your selling costs?

That’s a question the New York Federal Reserve Bank asked underwater borrowers in a survey this spring. And nearly 87 percent said that, “no, absolutely not,” have they ever considered not making their payments. Never even entered their minds. And 6 percent said they’ve considered throwing in the towel but never did. None actually stopped.

So, why didn’t they stop? Nearly 78 percent said they liked their homes and didn’t want to give them up. And 1 in 4 respondents said the cost to move to another house was just too great.

Nearly 1 in 5 respondents worried that stopping their house payment would negatively impact their credit score, and almost 17 percent were afraid the lender would not only take their house, but also come after their belongings. Yes, losing a house will definitely affect your credit score, but I know of no lender that wants your car, TV or personal effects.

Meanwhile, some 15 percent have a moral problem with stopping, and 11 percent held the belief that eventually, their places would be worth more than their combined debts.

If you are counting, respondents were allowed to select multiple reasons.

Scams, scams, everywhere a scam. The latest: A call threatening to shut off your electricity or other utilities unless you pay off a past-due bill.

You know you’ve paid, but you can’t afford to lose your heat, air conditioning, water and so on. Besides, the guy on the line sounds so convincing, so believable. But you can’t afford to trust him because it’s not true.

Here, thanks to the Federal Trade Commission, is how to handle such calls:

-- Keep the guy on the line while you check your receipts. If you’ve marked it paid, hang up.

-- Don’t give out your banking information by email or phone. Real utility companies won’t ask for it, and they won’t make you pay up that way as your only option.

-- If the caller demands payment by gift card, cash reload card, wiring the money or cryptocurrency, take it as a red flag. Legit companies don’t demand one specific form of payment, the government’s consumer watchdog agency says. And they don’t accept cards or bitcoin.

The FTC has shut down three outfits that sell fake documents to people who are applying for a mortgage or other products and services.

Homebuyers need evidence of their employment, income, bank accounts and so on. But if you buy fake pay stubs, tax forms and the like online and give them to a lender to support your application, you are committing fraud and could be prosecuted. Besides, most lenders these days confirm electronically what you state on your application.

While on the subject of scams, check out Fireball Approves (www.fornoscams.us), a website that helps consumers identify all sorts of rip-off schemes before they become a victim.

I haven’t used the site myself, but it claims that renters of residential properties and vacation homes can obtain confirmation of ownership, a phone number and an email address within 48 hours. No personal information is needed from the customer besides their name, email and phone.

Fireball Approves also offers a vetting service for vacation rental property owners that can be inserted into their advertising or property listings to gain the confidence of a potential customer. And it offers business verifications to assure that contractors are bonded, licensed and insured.

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