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Many Loan-mods Don’t Hold

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 13th, 2018

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped “save” more than 68,000 borrowers from foreclosure in this year’s first quarter by modifying their loans so the payments are more affordable.

That brings their total foreclosure preventions to more than 4.1 million, and drops the two companies’ rate of seriously delinquent homeowners to 1.1 percent as of the end of March, according to government reports. Hey, you can’t help everybody.

But according to another report from a well-respected real estate analyst, you sometimes can’t even help those you’ve already helped. That’s not a riddle. Rather, it describes the rate of recidivism, or the folks who lose their homes anyway, no matter how much assistance they are given.

An investigation by analyst Keith Jurow found “compelling evidence that a large and growing percentage” of owners are re-defaulting on their loans.

“Once, twice, even three times,” he said. “The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that modifications, as an alternative to foreclosures, have been a massive failure.”

Jurow told me in an interview that “the numbers are mind-boggling.” Consider these figures, which he offered in his column in the “Advisor Perspectives” newsletter:

In the last half of 2012, 24 percent of borrowers who received a loan-mod from Fannie Mae had re-defaulted within a year. By last year’s fourth quarter, 37 percent had re-defaulted. Even worse, 30 percent who received a modification in 2017 re-defaulted within 90 days. Ninety days!

Hope Now, a consortium of government-approved counseling agents -- companies that service home loans, investors and other mortgage market participants -- counts a total of 8.4 million mortgage modifications since 2007. This includes mods made under the federal HAMP modification program begun in 2009, proprietary mods made directly by lenders, and Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s own mod programs.

In most cases, permanent changes to an original mortgage are made by reducing the interest rate, stretching the loan term, adding unpaid interest to the principal still owed or reducing the amount owed. In other instances, temporary changes such as a reduction or deferment of the scheduled payment are made until the borrower gets back on his or her financial feet.

Because the temporary solutions don’t change the terms of the original loan, they are not reported under regular modification data. However, under the heading “other workout plans,” Hope Now says there have been 16.4 million temporary mods.

In all cases, all borrowers who have received a modification are considered current. Thus, the delinquency and foreclosure figures reported by trade groups and the government are highly misleading.

Loan-mods were seen as a critical part of the solution to help troubled borrowers avoid losing their homes. “If millions of delinquent mortgages could be modified, this would drastically reduce the number of homes that would have to be repossessed,” says Jurow.

But the result was far different, he says. Instead of solving the problem, it only “succeeded in artificially pushing up home prices and fooling everyone into thinking that the worst is over.”

Here’s what Jurow calls “the really shocking number”: By 2015, one-third of new loan-mods were on mortgages previously modified and whose borrowers had defaulted again. And the problem is not limited to Fannie Mae, which the analyst says is carrying $144 billion worth of mortgages it believes are uncollectible.

A 2014 review of loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) found that nearly 3.3 million had been modified. But about 57 percent of those borrowers had already re-defaulted, according to Jurow’s report. Another review found that of the FHA loans that had been modified, nearly 60 percent re-defaulted within 36 months.

“The FHA default rate is the worst,” Jurow said.

Some of the nation’s largest banks are in the same boat. At Bank of America, the re-default rate on “troubled debt restructurings” is 45 percent. At PNC, it’s 57 percent. At Wells Fargo, it’s 35 percent.

These and other lenders, loan servicers and Fannie and Freddie “have been able to pull off this charade because hardly anyone knows how bad the re-default situation really is,” Jurow said. “Even mortgage pros don’t really know that there is a problem. How could they? The re-default numbers ... have been buried where few people can find them.”

“It’s hard to get good data,” he said. “They hide it. I really had to dig.”

Jurow’s worrisome analysis is meant to be a warning to mortgage investors and their advisers, who he says “don’t have a clue.”

“There’s only one plausible conclusion we can draw from these worsening numbers,” he says. “Mortgage modification has failed as a solution to the mortgage delinquency problem. Millions of borrowers continue to become delinquent regardless of their financial situation.”

But there’s a message here for borrowers, too: When considering a modification, make reasonably sure that you can fix your financial situation and avoid getting into trouble again. Otherwise, you are only delaying the inevitable. And it could cost you dearly.

For the rest of us, beware. The market in your area may not be as strong as you suspect.

The foreclosure crisis has not gone away. Eventually, lenders and investors have to come down on these serial defaulters.

They haven’t yet, Jurow speculates, because there are so many of them that it could throw the housing sector into another free-fall. But if and when they do, it could impact the value of your own home.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that this is going to end badly,” the analyst said. “It’s like a ticking time bomb. Sooner or later it’s going to explode. You can only kick the can down the road for so long.”

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Odd Parcels: Schools, Speed, Appraisals

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 6th, 2018

Appraisals are sometimes a big issue for buyers and sellers. Never mind that there’s a shortage of journeymen appraisers, which is why it sometimes takes weeks to obtain a valuation. That alone is a major headache. But the main problem is that no matter what the buyer is willing to pay, it’s the appraisal on which the lender bases its decision about how much to lend.

If the valuation comes in too far below what the buyers have offered, they either have to come up with more cash to make up the difference, or the sellers have to lower the amount they’re willing to accept. In today’s market, where there’s no shortage of buyers willing to pay above the asking price, the onus usually falls on the buyer to make good or step aside for the next guy.

There’s nothing anyone can do about that. But at least the process is likely to become more consumer-friendly -- and possibly even less expensive -- under a couple of initiatives put forth recently by two big appraisal-management companies. Both aim to override the shortage of appraisers and lessen the time it takes to learn what the appraiser thinks the “subject property” is worth.

In one instance, Computershare Property Solutions is offering lenders a hybrid type of appraisal in which the valuator never visits the property. Instead, a licensed realty broker or home inspector gives the house a look-see, takes pictures and reports findings to a desk-bound, state licensed appraiser, who uses that information and an automated valuation system to come up with a number.

This type of bifurcated system has been in use for some time by lenders making home equity loans, but it is new to financing used to buy a house, says CPS President James Smith. And he thinks it will be successful because it addresses the lack of experienced appraisers, the high cost of appraisals and the long lead-time between doing the work and handing in a complete report.

“Brokers and inspectors know the property,” so they can present an accurate picture of its condition, Smith says. And while appraisers never see the property, they “can do more work and get more done” by staying glued to their computers.

“At the end of the day,” the finished, hybrid product is “still an appraisal,” he adds -- one that can be turned around in four or five days, as opposed to several weeks for a traditional valuation. And at a much lower cost: $145 as opposed to several hundred dollars.

Meanwhile, HomeBase from Valuation Partners is a link that provides everyone in the process -- the buyer, seller, realty agent, appraiser and lender -- a single, central point of contact so they can remain informed 24/7.

For the seller, it sets the appointment and provides all the pertinent information about the estimator, including a photo, automobile information and appraisal license number. And for both seller and buyer, an educational component informs them about what to expect when the appraiser shows up.

CEO William Fall expects the product to help speed up the long, drawn-out valuation process. “With the seller’s and appraiser’s schedules being what they are, it can be difficult to set up appointments,” says Fall. “But when you know when the appraiser will be there, you can say with almost absolute certainty when his report will be turned in.”

Houses sold faster last year than they ever have, according to Zillow.

Median time on the market, from listing to closing, was just 81 days. But June sales occurred quicker still: in a mere 73 days.

Since it often takes 30 days to get to the settlement table from the day a contract is signed, that means houses sold in roughly 51 days last year, or less than two full months. Of course, some listings languish for months, but others sell within a few days.

Many people move from one house to another to enroll their children in better schools. But that often means paying more for their new digs.

Consider two similar houses: They’re just two miles apart, and in the same Cincinnati neighborhood, but each is located in a different school district. One is valued at $137 per square foot; the other, $217, according to a white paper by Collateral Analytics, a firm that develops analytical tools to support banks and investors.

That’s a difference of 58 percent. The biggest driver, the company’s analysis found, is the quality of education at the schools the residents of those houses would attend.

In Cincinnati, the part of town covered in the report has two high schools. One earns an 8 out of 10 from greatschools.org, and a 10 for college readiness. The other, just a couple miles away in another school district, gets an overall rating of 3, and a 3 for college readiness.

Differences like this can sometimes be magnified at the grade-school level. In Mission Viejo, California, the other locale covered in the study, researchers found a whopping $300,000 spread among nine different elementary schools.

Another report, this one from the National Bureau of Economic Research, seems to solidify Collateral Analytics’ numbers. That report, “Using Market Valuation to Assess Public School Spending,” found that communities’ investment in their schools has a direct impact on property values.

For every additional dollar spent in state aid per pupil, it said, house values jump by about $20.

“A better education means a certain type of school,” says Tom O’Grady of Pro Teck Valuation Services, an appraisal management company. “But a certain type of school may end up meaning a pricier home.”

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Obtaining a Fair Insurance Settlement

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | June 29th, 2018

As too many homeowners have learned after a major loss, obtaining a full and fair settlement from their insurance companies isn’t a given.

Too many insurers tend to lowball their damage estimates, hoping the insured will accept their offers and go away. The job of their adjusters is to pay out as little as possible; after all, these are money-making businesses, and the less they pay, the more profitable they are.

Consequently, you must take every precaution to protect yourself and make sure you receive what you deserve. “Be vigilant,” says J. Robert Hunter, director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America (CFA) and a former federal insurance administrator who ran the National Flood Insurance Program. “You paid your premiums and you are entitled to coverage.”

Hunter admits not all insurance companies handle claims poorly, so “go into the claims process with an open mind. (But) be ready to stand up for yourself and your family, or you run the risk of being shortchanged.”

Every time there’s a national disaster, such as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the CFA sends out a bulletin outlining the steps consumers should take to ensure they obtain fair payment for their losses. You can go to the CFA website (consumerfed.org) to obtain the latest one, dated September 2017.

Here’s a synopsis of the latest tips:

-- File your claim promptly. Insurers tend to handle them on a first-come, first-served basis.

-- Obtain and save your claim number. The quickest way for claims departments to find your file is with this all-important number.

-- When an adjuster arrives to survey your damages, find out if he’s an employee of your insurer. If he’s not, he’s an independent adjuster hired as a contractor by your insurer. So find out if he’s authorized to make claim decisions and payments on behalf of your insurer. Also ask for the name of the in-house company adjuster to whom he is sending your information.

-- Many insurance companies have repair programs in which they offer to send out one of their approved contractors to estimate your damage and repair it. Nothing wrong there, but you are under no obligation to use them. You are free to obtain your own estimates, perhaps from contractors you have used in the past and are satisfied with.

-- Keep good records, including the date, time, name and a brief description of every exchange you have with your insurer. If an adjuster misses an appointment, make a note. If possible, take your own photos of your damage. And keep receipts when you pay out-of-pocket for emergency repairs -- and alternate living arrangements, if the house is uninhabitable.

-- If your claim is denied, demand that the company identify the language in your policy that serves as the basis for its decision for offering you so little, CFA’s Hunter advises. “This approach has several benefits,” he says. The insurer may be right and you may not know it, so by pinpointing the appropriate language, you can make your own determination.

-- The company may have slipped new limitations into your policy without adequately notifying you. For example, many insurers have added percentage deductibles, which shift a greater share of the loss onto you, but some have not have given customers the option to select the level of coverage. If that’s your situation, it’s time to consult an attorney.

-- Be aware of other new limits that may have been added recently. One such limit is a ceiling on replacement-cost payments that says insurers no longer cover the additional costs involved in bringing a damaged house up to current building codes.

-- Once an insurer gives you the reasons for its actions, it cannot produce new reasons later. “You have them locked in, which is an important protection,” says Hunter.

-- If you review your policy and find that, under a reasonable reading, you think you’re entitled to the full amount of your claim, “you will likely win if you go to court,” says Hunter. “Courts consistently rule that if an insurance policy is ambiguous, the reasonable expectation of the insured party will prevail since the consumer played no part in writing the language.”

If you believe the insurer’s offer is too low, complain to more senior staff. Hunter suggests going to the executive in charge of consumer affairs, who is paid to keep policy-holders happy. Refer to the records you’ve kept since the claims process began.

“The more serious the insurance company sees that you are in documenting how you were treated, the more likely they will make a more reasonable offer,” says Hunter.

Also, complain to your state insurance department. Every state will seek a response to your beef from your carrier. And some states will actually intervene on your behalf.

According to Hunter, “if your treatment by your insurer was particularly bad, courts in many states will allow additional compensation if the company acted in bad faith.”

Other choices: Contact a lawyer or a public adjuster (PA), an adjuster who works on behalf of consumers, as opposed to insurers. Many PAs once worked for insurers, and know the world of policies and coverage inside and out.

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