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The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 25th, 2016

Forget about millennials. Everything that can be written about that age cohort has been written. So let's move on to Gen Z. They are mostly teenagers today, but they will be homebuyers tomorrow. Or will they?

That's what the Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate franchise wanted to find out with a survey of a small sample of kids ages 13-17, of which there are 21 million or so. The results were heartening.

For example, 82 percent said home ownership is the most important factor in achieving the American Dream. Most adults feel that way, too. But millennials, not so much. And a whopping 97 percent of the Gen Zers polled said they fully expect to own a home sometime in the future.

But how much does home ownership really mean to them? I mean, what are they willing to give up? How far are they willing to stretch? Pretty far, it turns out.

Nearly two out of every five would willingly take their mom or dad to their high school prom if it allowed them to buy a home. And even more telling, a bit more than half said they would gladly give up social media altogether for one solid year if it meant being able to buy.

About a third of all consumers plan to give technology gifts this holiday season, according to the Consumer Technology Association. Spending on technology will increase by about 3 percent to $36.05 billion.

While not as popular as, say, drones or virtual reality, smart house devices such as thermostats and digital assistant devices such as Amazon's Echo will command a roughly 10 percent share of the tech market this year.

Looking for another reason to buy rather than rent? Most automobile insurers charge drivers with good records as much as 47 percent more for basic liability coverage if they are not homeowners, according to an analysis of premiums by the Consumer Federation of America (CFA).

Based on a sampling of quotes throughout the country, the CFA found that premiums averaged 7 percent higher, or about $112 annually, for a 30-year-old "safe" driver who rents rather than owns. Liberty Mutual was the biggest transgressor, hiking premiums $307 a year on average for state-mandated coverage.

The CFA tested rates for minimum liability coverage in 10 cities from seven of the country's largest companies. On average, they charged renters 6 percent more. But there were several instances of double-digit increases, including the aforementioned 47 percent in Louisville, Kentucky, by Farmers.

Geico was the only company tested that did not consider home ownership status, and Allstate actually charged renters less in Chicago.

"Insurance companies should judge you on how you drive, not who you are," said J. Robert Hunter, CFA's director of insurance and a former Texas insurance commissioner. "Insurance companies are penalizing good drivers by hundreds and sometimes thousands of dollars each year based on economic and social status, and the end result is that the poor pay more, much more."

Speaking of automobiles, real estate brokerage firm Redfin has developed a rating system that measures the number of jobs within a 30-minute, car-free commute from a given address.

Called the Opportunity Score -- with 100 representing the home with the most nearby jobs -- it aligns two major lifestyle choices influencing how people live today. One, many people don't want to rely on autos to get to work, and two, being close to jobs means it is less expensive to buy.

For what it's worth, Redfin also has developed a number of other scoring algorithms, including Walk Score, Bike Score and Transit Score, all of which give people a sense of what it's like to live in a particular neighborhood.

Much is said about the number of million-dollar homes. But they don't usually start out that costly, according to the Census Bureau. Only 1,762 houses started for sale in 2015 came with a price tag of $1 million or more.

Last year's count was about half that of 2014, when 3,347 million-dollar manses were started. And it was way, way lower than in 2005, when the number reached its peak at 5,647.

Still, even at that, the number of newly built million-dollar houses represents only 1 percent of the total number of housing starts and a lower percentage of all homes sold.

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Lenders Struggle With Affordability Issues, Too

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 18th, 2016

If you have the feeling that it's getting more difficult to afford the roof over your head, whether it's a home of your own or a rented apartment, you're right.

It's not just that house prices are rising quickly in many parts of the country. It's that some lenders who got burned in the previous decade's market crash are still gun-shy about extending credit. And even when lenders are ready and willing to jump back into the market, their federal regulators are telling them to rein in potentially risky loans.

The tight hold regulators have on lenders may or may not be comforting to a general public worried that another crash is possible -- or even probable. Either way, the lending business is fretting, loudly, about the affordability squeeze being placed on potential customers.

At the Mortgage Bankers Association's recent conference in Boston, both the chairman and the president of the group said that making housing more affordable -- for all types of buyers -- is a top priority.

MBA chair Rodrigo Lopez complained that although "the economy has regained its footing," homeownership remains "at its lowest levels in 50 years."

Lopez, who is an executive with a commercial mortgage lender, promised that affordable housing and access to credit will be among his first priorities during his year at the MBA helm.

The affordability squeeze extends to rentals as well. "Although we are constructing nearly 400,000 new rental units per year, only a small subset of these units will be affordable to lower-income households," Lopez said. "The combination of stagnant incomes and rising rents has resulted in an almost 40 percent increase in renter households who spend more than one-third of their incomes on housing. For some, rent approaches nearly half of their incomes -- an unacceptable statistic under any circumstance."

The squeeze is greatest on low-income, working-class families. But Lopez thinks the mortgage business could walk that tightrope between extending more credit and doing risky lending.

"We have an opportunity to improve access to credit, being mindful of the need to balance new regulations with innovation and responsible adjustments to the housing finance system," he told the meeting.

David Stevens, the MBA president and top staffer, pointed to "the millennial gap" as the perfect illustration of housing unaffordability.

"Homeownership rates among Americans between 18 and 35 are only 34 percent, or just over half the national rate," he pointed out. "But it's more than the fact that they're not buying. It's that they're not renting, either."

According to Pew Research, one in three 18- to 34-year-olds still lives with their parents. This marks the first time since 1880 that more people in that age cohort live with Mom and Dad than elsewhere.

Another telling statistic: According to the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, over the last 20 years, the percentage of Americans dedicating at least half their income to housing has risen from 42 percent to 52 percent. Over 1 million families now put more than 70 percent of their incomes toward rent and keeping the lights on.

"Whether the reason for the delay (in buying) is tight credit, student loan debt, the lack of affordable housing stock, average wages for young people, or just that millennials are taking their time before making big decisions like getting married or buying a home, it is causing an unusual and unsustainable rise in rental costs, particularly in urban areas," Stevens said.

"It's not all about the 'sharing economy.' Or that their parents' basement is a good place to hang a Bernie Sanders poster," he said.

Stevens said the MBA can be an effective advocate to negate the effects of the credit squeeze. But, he added, his members are being discouraged from lending to some first-time buyers because they worry a mistake might expose them to the wrath of regulators.

What's causing lender dread? Stevens said it's caused by "overly aggressive, and sometimes inappropriate, enforcement actions by some key government agencies." He notes that the regulatory framework is too often redundant -- "state regulations piled on top of federal regulations, piled on top of international rules, often conflicting with each other."

"No wonder (lenders) have no choice but (to take) the most conservative lending posture in order to meet the lowest common regulatory denominator," he said.

Steven called on MBA members, which include banks, mortgage companies and other financial institutions, to "create and promote affordable housing through incentives like the mortgage interest deduction, down payment savings and matching plans, as well as other means."

He also said his commercial members should encourage the financing and building of affordable rental units near offices and transit stops.

-- Freelance writer Mark Fogarty contributed to this report.

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Surprises, Good and Bad

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 11th, 2016

Millions of consumers are in for a big surprise in the coming months.

For some, the surprise will be good news; for others, not so good. Perhaps even devastating. And they don't appear to be prepared.

Let's start with the latter group, which consists of homeowners who have home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, and are about to get the shock of their lives.

Over the next few years, some 3 million homeowners with HELOCs have to say goodbye to making minimum, interest-only payments on their lines of credit, according to the RealtyTrac wing of Attom Data Solutions. Some loans allowed owners to stick to those minimum payments for up to 10 years. But soon, the piper will come calling, and they'll be required to start paying down their principal, as well as paying interest on their remaining balances.

According to a poll of 800 homeowners with HELOCs by TD Bank, 4 out of 5 do not realize they are going to get a financial kick in the pants in the form of an increase in their monthly payments.

More shocking stats: One-third of borrowers who opened HELOCs prior to 2011 are unaware of when their loans roll over from interest-only payments to interest-and-principal payments, even thought the date is right there in their loan papers. And more than half who took out a line of credit between 2005 and 2008 don't know what the impact will be when their HELOC "D-Day" comes around.

But here, perhaps, is the topper: Among those who do know a reset is coming, 1 out of 3 actually think their payments will go down, not up. Good luck with that!

Fortunately, there's still time to stave off a disaster. Dig out your loan papers, look for the rollover date and start working on how to handle the pending increase in your payments.

"It's important that HELOC borrowers plan ahead and review their contracts to determine the best course of action based on their current and future financial situations," says Mike Kinane, a vice president with TD Bank. If you are unsure what to do, or if it looks as though you might be buried under higher HELOC payments, contact your lender right away, Kinane says. "A responsible lender will offer multiple ways for you to pay down your line of credit."

According to the survey, more than a quarter of the respondents plan to refinance into another loan, perhaps another HELOC. But there are other options, including rolling the unpaid balance into your first mortgage.

There's nothing wrong with HELOCs. They are a good and flexible way to pay for home improvements, to consolidate debt, to pay for Jimmy and Jenna's educations or deal with unexpected expenses. But you have to know when the inevitable is coming and get ready for it.

Now, on to the good news. It involves former homeowners who went through tough times when the housing market crashed in 2008. They lost their homes through short sales, foreclosures or bankruptcies.

That black mark remains in their credit records for seven years. But between now and June of next year, the pock will fall away for some 2.5 million people.

Given what these folks went through, there's no telling whether they will ever test the housing waters again. But if they do decide to take the plunge, the latest analysis from Experian, one of the three major credit bureaus, shows that two-thirds of them are scoring in the near-prime or higher credit segments.

In other words, should these folk decide to become "boomerang buyers," their chances are good they'll find it much easier to qualify for financing.

"The trends that we're seeing are promising for both the mortgage seeker and the lender," says Experian's Michele Raneri. "While many of these borrowers have gone through a very difficult time, it is encouraging to see them taking control of their finances with better credit scores and all-around better credit management."

In some quarters, "boomerangers" are expected to be an important segment of the housing market in the years ahead. But some will never, ever own a home again, and a small minority never should have become owners in the first place.

Some, though, have already re-enlisted, and according to the Experian study, most are showing responsible credit behaviors, have improved their credit scores and are current on their debts.

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