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Crime Stats Not Easy to Find

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 20th, 2016

Murders don't occur solely in "other people's" neighborhoods. Or even "bad" neighborhoods. They happen everywhere.

Last year, in the nice community where I have a winter home, a doctor was bludgeoned to death by two men allegedly hired by her husband.

Every place has a high-profile homicide every once in a while.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), every state experienced homicides in 2014 -- some far more than others. Washington, D.C.'s rate is the highest in the land: 13.72 killings per 100,000 people, with 97 people having been killed in the nation's capital in 2014. California had the highest number of homicides, at 1,813, yet its rate was lower, at 4.63 per 100,000 people.

Louisiana had the next-highest rate at 11.67, followed by Mississippi at 11.41 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, New Hampshire's rate was 1.28 and Massachusetts' was 1.61. Another way to look at it: You are almost 10 times as likely to be a homicide victim in D.C. as you are in New Hampshire.

Statistics like this are interesting, but they are not terribly useful for homebuyers worried about crime, because they don't include neighborhood-level -- or even county-level -- data. And many folks want to know what bad things are happening in the communities they are considering.

In a recent survey by BDX, an online marketing resource for builders (for which I write occasionally), people said the No. 1 thing missing in their real estate web searches are crime figures.

"For me, I want the crime statistics in the area," said a woman named Stacy. "I want to know home burglary information. I know the area where I live now just doesn't feel safe to me, so it's important for my next home to be in a better neighborhood then I am living in now. I want to do more research and not just base (my decision) on price and amenities."

There's good reason for Stacy's interest. Besides the possibility of becoming a victim, property values can plummet when a murder takes place. According to a recent study by Finder.com, a personal finance comparison site, the national housing market loses some $2.3 billion a year in value because of homicides.

"Not only are people creeped out by the thought that someone has been killed," says Finder's Fred Schebesta, "a murder creates a perception that the area is generally less safe and has a high crime rate."

Again, though, Finder's stats are not particularly useful because the numbers aren't local enough. So the question is, how do would-be buyers find what they need to know about crime to make an informed decision?

Fortunately, there are sources. You just have to do some digging.

Start with RealtyTrac's Registered Criminal Offender Risk Index. The index is based on the number of registered criminal offenders -- sex offenders, child predators, kidnappers and violent offenders -- as a percentage of total population in 10,358 ZIP codes. A ZIP code's ratio is then put into one of five categories, ranging from Very High to Very Low.

RealtyTrac found that average home values and home equities were lower in areas with a higher criminal offender index.

"This new index provides concrete evidence that registered criminal offenders pose not only a potential safety risk for homeowners and their families, but also a potential financial risk," said the data company's Daren Blomquist.

The index found that Greenville, South Carolina, had the highest offender index: 73 percent of its homes are located in ZIP codes in the Very High criminal offender category.

Data for the index comes from each state's online criminal offender registry. You can access the registry for your jurisdiction at your state's website.

Unfortunately, most states list only sex offenders. Just a few go beyond that. Montana, for example, also lists violent offenders, while Arkansas and Washington list child kidnappers.

Drilling down -- and for a fee -- you can get a Home Disclosure Report from RealtyTrac (homedisclosure.com), which will not only give you crime stats for a home, but also list local hazards, the property's history, disaster risks and school information. Besides putting your mind at ease -- or setting your antennae to wiggling -- you can use this information as a negotiating tool.

Another source -- also for a fee -- is Homefacts.com, which offers up data on everything RealtyTrac does and more, including where drug labs have been found, the politics of the community you are considering, air quality and the location of such key amenities as banks, hospitals, libraries and fire stations.

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Mortgage Interest Loses Tax Value

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 13th, 2016

This week, it's time to take on a couple of otherwise sacrosanct real estate homilies: The tax deduction for mortgage interest and the commission realty firms charge to sell houses. None of the professionals who earn their livelihoods in the housing sector will like reading this, but here goes anyway.

First, the write-off for interest borrowers pay on their mortgages: Uncle Sam allows us to deduct every penny we pay in mortgage interest, up to $1 million a year. Of course, few people pay that much, but it is part of the tax code nevertheless.

According to 2014 estimates by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, the mortgage interest deduction accounted for $72.4 billion in savings for taxpayers. About 34.5 million taxpayers claimed the popular write-off.

But most of that money must have gone to better-heeled taxpayers, because at today's still extremely low loan rates, the write-off is all but useless, at least to folks who purchase modest houses.

This all hinges on how much money you borrow and at what interest rate. The more you borrow and the higher the rate, the more attractive the write-off becomes. But at today's low rates, it may be better to claim the standard $12,600 tax write-off that's available to everyone.

To illustrate, let's look at the average median home price of $288,000 for March, as reported by the Census Bureau. With a typical 5 percent down payment ($14,400), you'd borrow $273,600. And at an interest rate of, say, 4 percent, the monthly payment for principal and interest on a 30-year loan would be $1,306 and change.

In the first year of the loan, you'd pay $10,1856 in interest, so it would be better to claim the standard $12,600 deduction for a couple filing jointly than to itemize.

It's not until the amount borrowed in the above example is somewhere between $317,000 and $318,000 that the better choice is to itemize.

The numbers change as interest rates and borrowed amounts change, but you get the idea. If you expect a big tax break when you are buying your first house, you'd better do the arithmetic ahead of time. Otherwise, you could be in for a shock.

You can find calculators to help with the math all over the internet. I use the calculators at HSH Associates (www.hsh.com), a highly respected mortgage information service based in New Jersey.

Also, it doesn't matter whether you buy a new or an existing house; the calculation is the same. The only thing that may change the equation is your property taxes, which are also deductible.

According to the Joint Committee, 33.6 million taxpayers claimed the property tax deduction, to the tune of $30.2 billion in 2014.

If you want to claim your real estate taxes, you should itemize. Often, the two deductions -- mortgage interest and property taxes -- add up to more than the standard deduction.

And there are many other write-offs -- state income taxes, medical payments, office in the home -- that, all added up, also favor itemizing.

Renters also qualify for the standard deduction, even though they have no mortgage interest or property taxes. But they may have other write-offs that are more than the standard deduction. Most do not, though, which is why renters rarely itemize.

Now, on to real estate commissions: In reality, commissions are always negotiable. But finding a brokerage firm or agent willing to bargain on their fees is all but impossible. There are discount brokerages that charge based on the services they provide, but full-service firms? Forget about it!

At the same time, the brokerage business's main trade group is always trying to get someone else to cut their fees. Just a few weeks ago, Tom Salomone, president of the National Association of Realtors and broker-owner of Real Estate II in Coral Springs, Florida, called on the Federal Housing Administration to reduce the annual insurance premium it charges borrowers who put down less than 20 percent, saying the change will "expand options" for first-time buyers.

But Tobias Peter, a research analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's International Center of Housing Risk, and others at the conservative think tank say cutting the premium would place the mortgage insurance fund at risk of going below its congressional mandate.

Besides, Peter has a better idea, especially since today's market is hamstrung more by a lack of houses for sale than it is of people to buy them.

If NAR would ask its members to slash their slice of the deal by, say, 2 percent, might potential sellers jump at the chance to save $4,000 in commissions on a $200,000 house, or $6,000 on a $300,000 house?

Peter's hypothesis: "Just like any sale brings in new customers, the NAR's sale on commissions would single-handedly boost entry-level supply without driving up prices, as the NAR's calls for credit loosening have done. What is needed is more supply, not more demand."

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Don't Give Prospective Buyers the 'Five-Finger Discount'

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 6th, 2016

Someone visiting one of Cindy Westfall's open houses a few years back swiped the seller's piggy bank. It was sitting on the dresser in the bedroom one minute, and then it was gone.

The Portland, Oregon, agent posted on the real estate website ActiveRain that, in eight years of holding open houses, "it was the first time I got a call from the seller saying something was missing."

Yes, the "five-finger discount" is alive and well in Realty Land. Face it: People like to touch and examine things at open houses. They like to open closets and drawers. Most of the time, it's innocent enough. But every once in a while, something goes missing.

Sometimes it's just one person who can't resist pocketing something and walking out. But sometimes, the thieves work in pairs: One keeps the agent occupied while the other roams from room to room, snatching whatever valuables he or she can find.

A few years ago, someone actually made off with a real estate agent's shoes. He had opted to remove them for the open house, rather than wear the floor-protecting blue booties that were available to prospective buyers. Michelle Carr-Crowe of Keller Williams in Cupertino, California, relates the story on ActiveRain: "It was not likely a mistake, as (the agent's) shoes were nearly new, inside and dry, whereas the 'trade-in' pair were old, well-worn and outside."

So, what are sellers -- and agents -- to do to protect themselves?

For starters, don't leave stuff lying around. That includes cash, checkbooks, credit cards, laptops or drugs, prescription or otherwise. It also means jewelry, watches and anything else thieves can shove in their pockets before making a clean getaway.

Also, take down any framed military discharge certificates. They sometimes include not only your name, but also your Social Security number. And log off the computer in your home office so people can't nose around and snatch your personal info.

Six years ago, a man in Silver Spring, Maryland, was arrested for stealing women's underwear from open houses. He was finally nabbed by an agent, who caught him rummaging through the owner's dresser. Turns out, the guy had dozens of women's undergarments from previous thefts.

Of course, while people tour your home, you can't carry the contents of your dresser with you. But where possible, you should keep valuables on your person, lock them up or remove them from your house altogether -- if not until the house is sold, then at least during an open house or showing.

Emmary Simpson of Long Realty in Tucson said she had an iPod lifted from a filing cabinet when she listed her house. After that, she removed everything of value, including expensive silver, and kept it at her parents' house. She also purchased a locking filing cabinet for items she needed to keep handy.

There are other precautions you can take, too. For example, make sure your bills and personal papers are out of sight. Don't just shove them in a drawer; organize them, box them up and put them away.

Guns and ammunition also need to be locked up and put away, if not removed from the house entirely. They tend to make would-be buyers nervous -- "If you need a weapon, is the neighborhood dangerous?" -- so remove them to another safe, locked location during the open house.

For you and your agent's personal protection, remove knife blocks from the kitchen counter. Every couple of years, an agent is attacked during an open house; don't provide would-be attackers with easily accessible weapons.

Also, make sure your open house is held by two agents. That way, one can welcome visitors and the other can walk with them as they tour.

That step would probably have stopped the couple who stole some $35,000 in jewelry from open houses in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, a few years ago. The husband went to "look around" while the wife and kids occupied the agent. Or the two women in the New York area who made off with $73,000 in loot using the same tactic.

Another idea: Use "nanny cams" or other surveillance devices to keep watch on people as they move through your house. Or maybe just announce to visitors that cameras and microphones are hidden in every room.

Make sure your agent asks visitors for their driver's licenses and license plate numbers, and have the agent snap a picture of them and their IDs. Somewhat off-putting, perhaps, but the agent can say something like, "In this day and age, you can't be too careful."

Honest folks will understand, and the bad guys will move on to the next mark.

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