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Scamsters Still Pitching

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 14th, 2015

The fact that television and radio pitchmen hawking real estate-related "get rich quick" schemes still fill the airways is not surprising. Not, at least, if you subscribe to the famous admonition about there being "a sucker born every minute."

But anyone considering handing over their hard-earned cash for classes, books and tapes that supposedly reveal the great secrets to using real estate to build instant wealth -- while exerting hardly any energy at all -- should ask themselves this:

If it is so darn easy to earn millions by following these get-rich preachers, why are they working so hard to turn you into a disciple?

The 2013 settlement between the Federal Trade Commission and financial guru Russ Dalbey should help answer that question.

Dalbey, who is now banned from the infomerical business, wasn't one of those buy-and-flip guys who dot the airwaves once Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel and the other late-night TV hosts sign off for the night. Instead, he was all about buying and selling promissory notes, most backed by real estate.

But like the majority of late-night pitchmen, whether they hawk real estate, privately held mortgages or tax liens, Dalbey did not earn millions from brokering notes, as he so proudly claimed.

Rather, according to a complaint filed by the FTC and Colorado Attorney General John Suthers, most of Dalbey's "note-related income" for the past 20 years came from "marketing and selling products and services purporting to teach consumers how to find and broker promissary notes."

Dalbey's pitch, "Winning in the Cash Flow Business," featured success stories of people claiming to have earned $1.2 million in 30 days, $79,000 in a few hours and $262,216 part-time.

But over the 15 years or so he was on the air, according to David Frankel, the FTC staff attorney on the case, only 296 of the 949,000-some people who purchased Dalbey's stuff actually made money, and just 129 made more than they'd spent on the courses.

People whom Dalbey swindled paid anywhere from $40 to $160 for his "Note Network" program. But once they were reeled in, they were hounded by high-pressure telemarketers to spend thousands more on boot camps, coaching sessions and lists of potential leads.

Dalbey was fined $330 million and forever prohibited from telemarketing, selling business opportunities and producing and distributing infomercials. But he escaped jail time.

Wade Cook didn't. The former taxi driver, who made most of his money selling books and tapes purporting to teach people how to find and broker privately held mortgages, was sentenced in 2007 to more than seven years in a federal penitentiary.

But both "gurus" fared better than their fellow con-man Don Lapre, who sold, among other things, a 36-page booklet explaining how to recover a Federal Housing Administration insurance refund after paying off a mortgage. Lapre killed himself in jail in 2011, while awaiting trial for bilking more than 220,000 victims out of nearly $52 million.

Lapre was charged with 41 counts of conspiracy, mail fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.

If this isn't enough to convince folks to keep a tight fist on their wallets, then they should check out the guru-rating Web page created by former real estate investor and newsletter publisher John T. Reed (johntreed.com). Reed sells a series of booklets on his site, and also offers what he says is "logical, well-researched, real-world, real estate investment advice."

That's the direct opposite of what many real estate investment "experts" have to sell.

The idea for the ratings list grew out of a 1990 article Reed wrote called "The Real Estate B.S. Artist Detection Checklist." The piece was intended to teach people how to recognize the charlatans on their own. But his readers wanted more -- his specific recommendation on every guru who has come down the pike. And there have been many.

Since 1979, he says, "there has been an endless parade of B.S. artists coming into the real estate investment advice field... It is an embarrassment to the good people in the business."

So, Reed started rating and reviewing dozens of industry authors, experts and seminar leaders -- giving readers his opinions of which ones are worth listening to. If you can't find a specific investor on the ratings page, which Reed admits he hasn't updated recently, check out his site's general guidelines for identifying a scam artist, and decide for yourself.

Sooner or later, the charlatans always meet the same fate as Dalbey and his fellow real estate robbers, says William Mencarow, another publisher-investor.

"The wheels of justice turn slowly," says Mencarow, "but eventually grind fine."

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Online Tool Helps With Pricing

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 7th, 2015

One of the most difficult things for sellers to do is come up with the right asking price for their castles -- one that will net them the most money, without the house laboring on the market for far too long.

Real estate agents are often helpful when it comes to pricing. But while many work with their clients to set the "right" number, others suggest too high a price in hopes of securing the listing, only to later tell the sellers they aimed too high.

Other agents suggest too low a price in the hopes that the place will sell on its own merits without much of a marketing effort on their part. In other words, so they can nab a quick commission.

Owners are sometimes culpable, too: Thinking their homes are the best on the market, bar none, they delude themselves into believing their places will fetch top dollar. Or, whether housing prices in their neck of the woods are rising, falling or just plain stagnant, they believe their homes are worth more than they really are.

According to a study set for publication in the Journal of Housing Economics, for example, owners tend to overvalue their homes by an average of 8 percent. Those who bought during the 2004-2006 boom years overestimate their home's value by even more: as much as 12 percent.

Whether with their agents' help or on their own, the study said, "homeowners systematically overestimate the value of their homes."

But soon, sellers will have a new Web-based pricing tool at their disposal. The program won't tell you what price to ask, but it will project with uncanny accuracy whether your home's value will be rising, falling or remain unchanged.

Currently, you can use the static and dynamic maps developed by Weiss Residential Research in Natick, Massachusetts, to chart how values have changed in your neighborhood over the last 12 months, and what they are likely to do in the next 12 months.

Soon, says founder Allan Weiss, you'll be able to do the same for your specific house.

The maps work like this: Go to weissindex.com and type in your ZIP code. (Note: Due to local disclosure laws, data is currently unavailable for 12 U.S. states.) A map of that area will pop up on the screen with a color-coded dot representing every house. A green dot means the price for that house has been rising; a red dot means its price has been falling.

Now, run the cursor over the years at the bottom of the screen and you'll see a historical perspective. If you see all green for several years and then some red, it means there's potential for a downturn. But if you see all red for several years and then some green, a possible upturn is in the offing.

These mini-indices are based on repeat sales and show changing values 12 months into the future for 100 major metropolitan areas and some 6,000 ZIP codes.

But Weiss has recently increased the database to include nearly 100 million residential properties throughout the country, making it possible to create similar indices for each of those houses. Within a few months, he promises, you'll be able to do the same for specific houses by typing in addresses.

The maps will not only show what the value of that house has been for the past few years, but also what its worth is likely to be over the next 12 months -- not a specific price, but rather a trend line.

The Weiss Residential Index is free to use, and Weiss vows it will never be used as a lead-generation tool for agents or lenders. The site will instead be subsidized through his agreements with others portals.

The name Weiss may sound familiar. He was CEO of Case Shiller Weiss, and was instrumental in bringing the popular and widely quoted Case-Shiller housing barometer to market. Case-Shiller shows how house values have changed over the previous 12 months in 20 major markets and dozens of smaller ones.

But that rear-looking index was unable to predict the 2008 housing market crash that sent values plummeting. That's when Weiss said he "knew something was wrong."

"It didn't help people recognize the crash," he said. "And it didn't show that even during the worst of the crash, some homes declined less in value than others, and some even appreciated. Nor did it show that some neighborhoods experienced downturns sooner than others."

The index he helped create was useless, says Weiss, who sold his share of the Case Shiller Weiss business in 2002. "People don't own their entire market. They own one house, and everyone needs their own index."

So he set about building a new index -- one that not only looks backward, but also forward. And over the last five years, he and his staff have developed tools that could possibly forewarn of never-before-seen market movements.

"Weiss maps show waves of value changes moving across a geographic area like a weather event," he explains. "New trends can be discovered, new sub-markets defined, compared and ranked, and better decisions made."

The maps can be helpful for buyers as well as sellers. Say, for example, you are considering two similar $400,000 houses you like equally. But one's index is rising, the other's is declining, and the forecasts show each trend is likely to continue.

So which place are you going to pick? Armed with the information from the maps, the decision is relatively simple.

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Don't Overlook Credit Unions

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 31st, 2015

The wider the net you cast when searching for financing, the better. It only makes sense to look beyond your local bank or mortgage company, and one place you may not have thought about is your friendly neighborhood credit union.

Credit unions are no longer the tiny cooperatives they were a generation ago. Back then, an auto loan was about the best you could hope for from one of these petite financial institutions. After all, they had fairly tight membership rules and, therefore, very limited assets from which to lend.

Now they are much larger -- the military credit unions like Navy Federal and Pentagon Federal are multibillion-dollar institutions -- and much easier to join. And not only do they offer mortgages, but they also are beginning to tap the capital markets for extra money to lend.

Today's credit unions have grown to resemble the savings and loans of yesteryear (without the crisis). And just as the old "thrifts" specialized in home loans, many credit unions do so now. Their bread-and-butter is still car loans, but mortgages also are a big part of their portfolios.

For instance, Pentagon Federal Credit Union, based in Alexandria, Virginia, reported originating $1.7 billion in first and second mortgages during the first five months of 2015. Annualized, that would come to more than $4 billion of mortgages this year alone.

Fellow military-centric credit union Navy Federal is even bigger. Open to all Department of Defense personnel, the Vienna, Virginia-based institution specializes in mortgages as well. The biggest credit union in the world, Navy Fed says it made more than $1 billion in mortgages just in March.

Credit unions made more than 8 percent of all mortgages last year, according to data from Callahan and Associates in Washington, D.C. That's a huge jump in share from the days of your father's credit union.

And they held almost $300 billion in first mortgages as of March 31, according to their federal regulator, the National Credit Union Administration. They also held $72 billion in other real estate loans, mainly second mortgages or home equity loans.

All of these are big numbers. Better yet, membership requirements have been significantly loosened.

Take the Dearborn Federal Credit Union in Michigan, which began life as a co-op for employees and family members of Ford Motor Co. It was started by seven Ford engineers back in 1950. Each of the engineers supposedly forked over five bucks to capitalize the business.

Now, DFCU has 200,000 members and more than $3.5 billion in assets. And you no longer have to work for Ford to belong. The credit union says: "People who reside, work, worship or are enrolled in post-high-school educational facilities in the 68 counties of the lower peninsula of Michigan are eligible to join."

Even that field of membership is flexible. According to the website, "Everyone is welcome, so if you don't qualify under one of these options, please call to learn about other ways you may join."

With its historical connection to Ford, you'd think auto lending would be DFCU's specialty, and you'd be right. But it is a big mortgage lender, too. It had $1.1 billion in mortgage collection rights at the end of 2014 and reported that its mortgage applications doubled last year.

Got 10 bucks? South Metro Federal Credit Union in Prior Lake, Minnestota, associated with the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux community, is open to any tribal member and anyone related to a member. But if you don't belong to that group, don't worry: A $10 donation will get you admitted.

One sign that credit unions are getting serious about mortgage lending is they are starting to participate in secondary mortgage transactions in order to secure more money to lend. For the uninitiated: A primary transaction is when a financial institution makes you a mortgage. In a secondary transaction, your lender sells your note to another financial institution for cash, often selling the right to collect your payments, as well.

A typical secondary-market transaction would be your lender selling your loan to one of the government mortgage agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. That way, the lender doesn't have to wait 30 years to get its money back. And as soon as your lender gets the money for your loan, it can relend those funds to other borrowers.

One way to measure credit union activity in the secondary market is to look at who attends the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual secondary mortgage market conference. This year, a record 20 credit union executives attended.

And they showed a variety of approaches. Take the Alaska USA Federal Credit Union of Anchorage, which invests in mortgage-backed securities issued by Ginnie Mae. This year, it is projecting $1.1 billion in mortgages and holds the collection rights to $5 billion in home loans.

Self-Help Credit Union of Durham, North Carolina has used secondary marketing to fund mortgages for low- to moderate-income and minority borrowers in partnership with Fannie Mae and the Ford Foundation. Over the last 10 years, it has made $4 billion worth of home loans.

To paraphrase that famous pundit, former Illinois Sen. Everett Dirksen: A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon it adds up to real mortgage money.

(Freelance writer Mark Fogarty contributed to this report.)

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