In light of the recent murder of Arkansas real estate agent Beverly Carter, it is interesting to note how agents protect themselves when meeting strangers at open houses and showings.

According to Moby's 2011 Real Estate Report, most realty pros -- more than 90 percent -- consider their phones to be their first line of defense against attackers. But 15 percent of all male agents carry a gun, and almost 10 percent carry knives.

Women tend to be a tad less bold. Only 5 percent carry guns. But 25 percent have mace or pepper spray in their purses, and 13 percent wield a Taser, something no men reported carrying.

Admittedly, these stats are a little old. You have to wonder what the percentages are now, after Carter's death.

Incidentally, there are several safety-related phone apps on the market, which may be why most agents feel safe with their smartphones.

The latest is called PerpAlert. It costs $2 annually, and was designed by three Southern California fathers who were concerned about their own families' well-being.

Without getting too technical, PerpAlert works something like this:

Aim your phone at a threatening person, press the button and the phone takes a photo of the potential bad guy, stamped with the time, date and your precise GPS coordinates. The photos are instantly sent to up to three people you designate in advance.

With the phone in hand, you can announce what has just happened.

Hopefully, that will be enough to convince the creep that you are not an easy target.

Jody Eldred of Los Angeles bought the app for his wife, and is recommending it to "everyone I know, especially women. (It's) cheap protection for two bucks, and it can be used by law enforcement as evidence if a crime is committed."

LOWBALL APPRAISALS ON THE RISE

In another sign of the times, technology company Platinum Data Solutions reports that 17 percent of appraisals on purchase transactions come back with a value less than the contract price.

That means nearly 1 in 5 deals are likely to fall through because buyers have agreed, in principal, to pay more than the house is really worth.

Appraisers are often at odds with buyers, sellers and their agents, who complain that valuers are being too conservative. While they want accurate valuations, lenders also gripe about low appraisals.

A high percentage of lowball appraisals could mean that home values have stabilized in that particular market. Conversely, it could indicate that values are declining; nobody but the appraiser knows which one. And that's why numbers like these need to be followed closely.

LIFE STAGES INFLUENCE HOUSING TRENDS

The share of 25- to 29-year-olds who are married is down, way down -- it's 48 percent lower for men than it was in 1970, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and 43 percent lower for women.

Mollie Carmichael of John Burns Real Estate Consulting says that fact alone is "one of the biggest game-changers" for housing.

Changes in marital status are "huge," according to Carmichael, a principal in the Irvine, California-based consulting firm. "The housing market is unquestionably fueled by life stages, particularly the change in marital status and the addition or subtraction of children," she wrote online.

Here are the five life stages of homebuyers, identified by Carmichael:

-- Unmarried. Singles are more likely to rent and live in locations that are closer to entertainment and employment, which is why these areas are more in demand today than usual.

-- Togetherness. Cohabitation has been on the rise in recent decades, but homeownership rates for these couples are much lower than rates for their married counterparts.

-- Marriage. Marriage often increases the desire to own a home; many location and housing choices depend on income and nearby family.

-- Children. The addition of little ones makes owning a home feel like a necessity for many, given the desire for yards, good schools and social circles for the kids.

-- Children moving out. An empty nest often results in lifestyle changes, including different home-size preferences, social circles and floor plan needs. Locational preferences also begin to shift.

MORTGAGE RATE FALLS HALF A POINT

Since the beginning of the year, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen about a half point, from 4.3 percent to 3.8 percent, according to Zillow. A half point may not seem like a lot, but it can translate into significant savings on a monthly basis and over the life of a loan.

For example, a buyer who started shopping at the beginning of the year for a $375,000 house could buy a $400,000 house now for the same monthly payment -- an extra $25,000 of spending power.

Consequently, buyers who started shopping just two or three months ago may want to run their "affordability" numbers again. They could now be looking too low.

Homebuyers are often in for a rude awakening when they receive their first property tax bill after they move in.

That's when they discover that the tax estimated at closing was just that: an estimate. More often than not, the estimate was not only off, it was way off -- by hundreds or perhaps even thousands of dollars.

Sometimes the bill is estimated by the real estate agent, who wants to show a low monthly payment so the place looks more affordable. Sometimes the agent simply goes off the seller's tax bill, not bothering to even hazard a guess of what the new tax bill will be when the house changes hands. Other times, the title company folks get it wrong. Even when they do their level best to get the number right, they are sometimes incorrect.

Whatever the case, the result is the same: The new owners are hit with higher house payments that they can't avoid. Unless they choose to sell and move on, they are stuck.

"Mistakes in property tax estimates can be much more than an inconvenience," says Mark Collins of Black Knight Financial Services. "In some cases, they can be devastating. Any unexpected and significant monetary obligation can create a substantial financial hardship."

Any number of things can drive up your property tax bill. The most likely event is a new and higher sales price, which means the value of the property has gone up. Another possibility: A pending assessment of property renovations or improvements is not yet reflected in the assessed value. Or an inaccurate or out-of-date tax record, overlooked until the property changed hands, may now be corrected.

The point here is this: Homebuyers shouldn't take anyone's word for it when it comes to their future property taxes. A little homework is in order.

Unfortunately, coming up with an accurate estimate can be difficult because there are so many variables to consider at the local, regional and state level, says Collins. There isn't any single solution that fits all states, since each state's tax rules -- and those of the jurisdictions within them -- present their own set of unique challenges.

The good news is that many jurisdictions offer free tax estimators on their websites. For example, Montgomery County, Maryland, has an estimator based on the address of the property and the tax account number for the most recent bill sent to the seller. Los Angeles County in California has an estimator for what you can expect to pay on your new house, but only for existing properties that are changing ownership, not for new construction.

There also are commercial sites that will do the same. Tax.Fizber.com, for example, is a free site that allows you to calculate the tariff for any property in any city nationwide.

If you are of a mind to do it yourself, your first step is to review the property record for your new house to determine whether the physical data accurately reflects the property in its current conditions. Is the correct number of bedrooms listed? Bathrooms?

Now determine if recent renovations or improvements are already included in the assessed value. If not, they will be in a future assessment. And if the work was done without the proper permits, it's highly likely that the current assessment in based on inaccurate information and that an increase is coming.

Next, according to New Jersey appraiser Michael Brady, determine if the assessment is disproportionately low (compared to like properties) by looking for the average ratio of assessed-to-true value for the taxing district. The ratio can be found in the Table of Equalized Valuations on the assessor's office website.

"Once you know the average ratio for your municipality, it's possible to evaluate the assessment to determine the likelihood of a future tax increase," says Brady.

The appraiser says this varies by state, and that not every state posts the equalized valuation table. But unless the jurisdiction updates assessments every year, there is likely an "equalization ratio" that is used to adjust assessments.

If the average ratio is near 100 percent, according to Brady, a purchase price significantly higher than the assessment is a strong indication that your taxes will be sharply higher. Ditto if the current assessment is significantly below market value, or what you paid for the place. So if the average ratio is, say, 75 percent, but the current assessment is 50 percent of value, a bigger tax bill is in order.

Sounds intimidating, for sure. But if you don't want to be hit by a major surprise, it may be worth a try. At the least, at closing, ask who estimated your tax bill and how they arrived at that number.

Erroneous tax bills can also trip up would-be buyers even before they close. The incorrect bill could be so high that buyers are turned down by lenders, because the tax puts them above the acceptable debt-to-income ratio.

Collins provides this example: A borrower who applies for a $500,000 loan is rejected because the DTI ratio is over the 44 percent his lender demands. But the ratio is high because the predicted tax bill is $6,250, as opposed to the actual bill of $5,000.

Had the bill been estimated correctly, the buyer would have been able to proceed. But the $1,250 difference kicks him over the ratio, and he loses the house he wanted to buy. Homework and preparedness can possibly help stave off this scenario.

What if they threw a housing recovery and nobody showed up?

That thesis is not exactly accurate: Millions of people will have purchased homes this year. Perhaps not at breakneck speed, but they are buying. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales jumped 2.4 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million.

Sales are now at their highest pace of 2014, but still remain 1.7 percent below the 5.26 million-unit level from September a year ago.

NAR maintains that the recovery won't reach its full potential until more builders get with the program. That's not to say builders aren't producing new houses; they are, but not at the number that's needed to satisfy latent demand.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the nation's hammer-and-saw folks will erect some 990,000 new dwellings this year. That's up from 930,000 last year. But it's a far cry from the 1.4 million or more that are necessary to placate folks looking for a brand-new residence.

"In a normal year, there should be demand for 1.7 million units," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said recently at NAHB's semi-annual construction forecast conference.

Of course, the economy isn't normal, at least not yet. So the "usual" number of enough people aren't visiting model homes and signing contracts. Particularly absent are the 3 to 4 million 18- to 34-year-olds who have yet to form their own households. They are either living with roommates, or in Mom and Dad's basement.

Zillow reports that 32 percent of all adults are now living with someone, up from just 25 percent as recently as 2000. Stagnant wages have been a major contributing factor in this. On average, Zillow found that doubled-up adults earn about 76 percent of the median income of people living on their own.

The percent share of first-time buyers continues to underperform historically. First-timers, according to NAR, have represented less than 30 percent of all buyers in 17 of the past 18 months. That's the lowest level in nearly three decades. Forty percent is the long-term average.

The share of entry-level buyers has been "well below normal" for the past seven years, according to NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, who says builders need to raise their production by 500,000 units "just to open up" the inventory of homes for sale.

"One of the constraining factors is inventory," Yun explains. "First-time buyers tend to buy existing homes that owners vacate when they buy new homes. So builders need to build more so the natural chain reaction can begin. If we had more homes to sell, we'd make more sales."

But builders are an optimistic lot. Setting the 2000-2003 period as a benchmark for normal housing activity, when single-family production averaged 1.3 million units annually, NAHB economists expect single-family starts to rise steadily, from 48 percent of what is considered a typical market in the third quarter of 2014 to 90 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2016.

Put another way, the number of single-family houses built this year will hit 637,000 units, then increase 26 percent next year to 802,000 units, and reach 1.1 million houses in 2016.

That's still short of "normal" demand, but who's pushing it? Certainly not most builders, who were burned -- many into oblivion -- when the economy went south and they were stuck with too many unsold units.

"Single-family builders are feeling good," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "They are not overly confident, but confident enough to keep moving forward."

Realtors, on the other hand, aren't feeling so good. Even as the use of lockboxes hits a 12-month high, the confidence of NAR's members is at a 12-month low, Yun reported recently.

Yun said he can't decide what's more important: lockboxes or member sentiment. But in a few years, he added, the answer should be moot because a full recovery will have taken place and the housing market should once again be running on all cylinders.

For now, there are 2.3 million existing houses on the market, which is 6 percent more than a year ago, when 2.17 million units had "For Sale" signs in front of them. But it's not enough.

"The rise in doubled-up households is a troubling sign of the times and starkly illustrates one of the prime drivers behind weak sales," said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.

If there is a silver lining to all this, it's that all of those roommate households "represent tremendous energy for the market," said Humphries, who figures a half-million buyers are waiting in the wings to step into the market as the economy trudges forward.