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How to Spot a Bad Deal

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | August 1st, 2014

Crowdfunding has found real estate. More than a handful of outfits have sprung up to collect small amounts of capital from a large number of individuals to finance their deals. One New York company is even selling stock in a single building in the nation's capital.

Until the JOBS Act of 2012, real estate investing was mainly the province of high-net-worth individuals: so-called "accredited investors" who earn more than $200,000 a year and were protected somewhat by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Large-scale investors can, and sometimes do, put their money into losing propositions. But at least the SEC requires full disclosure, so investors won't be tripped up by hidden, undisclosed details.

But with little or no SEC oversight for crowdfunding investments, how do small, mom-and-pop investors with only a few hundred or thousand dollars to risk determine which deals are shrewd and which are lewd -- that is, which are destined to be a financial success and which are failures from the get-go?

"The key to successfully investing in real estate is performing a thorough due-diligence analysis," says David Manshoory, founder of AssetAvenue. The company is just one of several crowdfunding real estate platforms that seek to connect investors with real estate professionals offering access to high-yield deals.

Seasoned investors know the importance of investigating all aspects of a transaction. But Manshoory says novices often "get excited about acquiring part of an investment property and lose sight of the mechanics of knowing what they are buying."

Here, from AssetAvenue, are some tips for rookies to spot a lousy real estate deal:

-- Market conditions. Two major factors are the keys to underwriting an investment in income-producing property: the market and the property. But of the two, local market conditions trump everything else.

Put simply, a great property in a declining market is generally a bad investment because no matter how you try, you can't change the market. But a poor property in a good market can be improved, becoming a good property in a good market.

"Analyzing the demographic trends of population growth, income and employment in the local market will tell you whether opportunity or risk lies ahead," Manshoory says. "It will also show which property types are in demand or oversupplied."

-- Misleading financials. The bottom line can be manipulated into whatever will make the deal work. So investor beware. Many sellers will overestimate revenue and/or underestimate expenses, making the property appear more profitable than it really is.

According to the AssetAvenue founder, it is critical to get the real operating numbers, not a projection of potential rent and estimated expenses. "Confirm and verify every element of income and expense," he says, "and make sure your offer is based on the actual financial performance of the property."

-- Poor-quality tenants. Leases are the most important documents attached to an income property. They produce the income, so it is critical to review every lease and understand the financial strength of the tenant behind each lease.

In an apartment building, tenant files with poor or nonexistent credit reports and lack of references are a red flag. If the building is filled with tenants who have a history of making late payments or being evicted, your vacancy, management and legal expenses will be higher than anticipated.

The same screening mechanism takes place with tenants in shopping centers or office buildings, where examining rent rolls, payment histories and credit files of existing tenants can be enlightening.

-- Hidden property conditions. The seller always knows more about the property than the buyer. So to make an intelligent investment decision, the buyer's job is to dig for the information the seller may not want to volunteer, or perhaps isn't aware of.

Part of your due-diligence checklist involves inspecting the property's condition, including physical items such as building systems, environmental matters and structural components. Hire the right professionals to give you estimates on the maintenance costs of these items, their lifespans, and how much it will cost to replace them when needed.

The condition of the property will determine how efficiently you will be able to manage it, Manshoory says.

-- Legal challenges. Intangible items, such as title, survey, zoning and land-use regulations, are important, too.

Sellers sometimes market their property indicating that it can be zoned for another use and has the development potential to add additional square footage. As a buyer, the burden is on you to make sure what the seller is saying is true. Do not assume that the proposed use of the site will be permitted as advertised.

-- Investing online. When it comes to facilitating your investment activities online, be sure to choose a credible platform that only does real estate deals, is backed by a team with years of deep experience in real estate investing, and has people available to answer your questions.

The team should strongly vet their deals, set realistic expectations and have a consistent track record of delivering solid returns.

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Labor Shortages More Acute

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 25th, 2014

If your builder is late delivering your new house, don't be too upset. You are not alone. New homebuyers almost everywhere are probably experiencing the same thing.

Ditto if you're having trouble getting your builder to come back and fix those sticky doors, loose floor tiles or the dozens of other little nuisances that always crop up in new homes.

Builder tardiness is not occurring because they've gone on a massive, countrywide strike to achieve some legislative goal in Washington. Rather, it's simply because they are unable to move has quickly as they once did.

The culprit: labor -- or more precisely, the lack thereof.

The economic downturn has driven hundreds of thousands of craftsmen and laborers away from housing and into other industries, and they have yet to come back. Indeed, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Home Builders, the labor shortage has become "substantially more widespread" since last year, when the housing recovery took hold.

"The incidence of reported shortages is now surprisingly high relative to the current state of new home construction," says NAHB economist Paul Emrath in the report.

But "the most distinctive aspect" of the survey results is not that there is an uptick in the share of builders reporting labor shortages, Emrath adds. It's "how widespread these shortages are relative to historical experience ... and to the current state of the home building industry," which is still struggling to regain its full stride.

About 2 out of every 3 builders reported paying higher wages due to the shortage, and almost as many say they have raised their house prices accordingly. Three out of 5 also reported difficulty in completing their houses on time; one-third said rising labor costs had made some projects unprofitable; and 9 percent said they lost or canceled sales as a result of higher labor costs.

On average, builders said their direct labor costs -- employees -- have increased by 2.9 percent over the past six months, while subcontractor costs increased 3.8 percent over the same period. Extrapolated over a full year, these increases would be 5.7 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively -- much higher than the roughly 2 percent year-over-year increase in the overall Consumer Price Index.

In other words, says Emrath, "the data show that builders' labor and especially subcontractor costs are rising faster than general inflation."

Subcontracting accounts for the lion's share of the work in residential construction. On average, single-family builders employ 25 different trades when building a house. More than half of all builders subcontract at least 75 percent of the construction work, the NAHB says, and more than 95 percent always contract out some jobs, particularly the heating and air conditioning work.

Builders were specifically asked about 12 trades in the recent survey, and 63 percent reported a dearth of rough carpenters, who build the supports and temporary forms used on the construction site. But well over half the builders reported shortages in all three so-called "hammer and saw" categories: rough carpentry, framing and finish carpentry.

Not all builders reported shortages. Indeed, several responded explicitly that there were no shortages in their respective areas. But averaged across all 12 trades, 41 percent of builders reported either some or serious labor issues.

That's up sharply from 28 percent last year and 20 percent in 2012.

The other nine trades builders queried about were: bricklayers, plumbers, painters, roofers, electricians, weatherization workers, HVAC professionals, excavators and building maintenance managers.

So what can buyers do? Little, except be patient. It's not that your builder doesn't care, or doesn't want to do right by you or their other customers. They do. But most subs and suppliers worth anything are extremely busy.

Most builders require that the subcontractor who did the original work follow up on call-backs. Not the same tradesmen, perhaps, but the same company. So if the sub is having difficulty finding quality workers in the first place, they will have even more trouble finding the time to double back to make repairs.

Large builders often send their own maintenance crews to handle call-backs, so they should be able to take care of those issues more expeditiously. But if the number of call-backs are on the rise, they, too, will have a hard time keeping up.

So try to remain rational and realistic. Separate the emergencies from the non-emergencies. And again, be patient.

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Performing Your Own Pre-Inspection

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | July 18th, 2014

To hear professional home inspectors tell it, Americans take better care of their automobiles than their homes. Consequently, every homebuyer should plan to spend the $400 to $600 necessary to have the house they like best throughly examined by an independent third party.

But wait: Before you make your final choice and order an inspection, you should do some preliminary investigating of your own. That way, you can protect against picking the wrong house and allowing a better-maintained property to slip away.

Even rookie buyers can get a good idea of just how well a house has been kept. Even when the seller has given the place a fresh shave and a haircut -- that is, painted the house and trimmed the lawn -- or done whatever else is necessary to make the property presentable, there can still be telltale signs that the seller hasn't been as diligent as he could have been.

For example, a clean furnace filter can be taken as an indication the house has been well cared for. But who's to say the seller didn't just change that filter for the first time in years? If the filter hasn't been changed regularly, the furnace hasn't been working efficiently and it may not last for its expected lifespan.

So how do you know? You don't. But if you spy a pile of spare filters, it's a pretty good sign that the owner is on the ball. Someone in the process of selling isn't buying extra filters she won't use.

Another clue that the furnace is in good shape: Look for a service log showing that the machine has been serviced regularly, at least once a year.

Of course, homebuyers, even those who have purchased several houses before, shouldn't substitute this kind of rudimentary investigation for a complete and exhaustive inspection by a trained professional. Even if the furnace has been serviced consistently, it could be on its last legs, and only a pro will be able to determine that.

If you are really interested in a property, make an appointment with the owner to return without an agent in tow. Give yourself plenty of time to give the place a good once-over.

Don't be afraid to kick the tires. You have every right to open closets, flush toilets, run the dishwasher through a full cycle, turn on all the stovetop burners, check the refrigerator and open the windows. The owners shouldn't object, not if they really want to sell.

You don't want to put every house you tour under this kind of microscope. That would be counterproductive. But once you narrow your choices down to two or three, it's time to take a harder look. Then, after you make your final decision, it's time to call in the experts.

Here, in no particular order, are some other suggestions from professional inspectors to help you decide if the properties you are considering are inspection-worthy:

-- If the house has a basement, follow your nose. If there is a damp, musty smell, there's usually an issue. A dehumidifier is another tip-off to a wet basement. They aren't part of the decor.

Also, look for stains or rot where the stringers, or side pieces, on the basement steps touch the floor. If there is a water problem, the moisture will wick into the wood.

If there is nothing on the basement floor, that could be a sign of water issues. Inspectors love to see stacks of old magazines in the corner with spider webs. That means those items have been there a long time, and that there is no water problem.

-- After water issues, improper electrical wiring is the second most common defect found by home inspectors. But while it is difficult for an amateur to determine if the electrical system is adequate, there are clues.

If you see a lot of fuses lying around, especially burnt-out ones, it's a dead giveaway that the wiring is probably undersized. Another sure-fire indication that the wiring is insufficient: a bunch of extension cords snaking around, hither and yon.

-- Roofing problems are also fairly common, so look for shingles that are cupping at the corners. They may have to be replaced. If the roof appears to be sagging between the joists, the entire thing may have to be removed. And if there are already two layers of shingles, the cost to fix it could be 20 percent higher or more.

If the house has been well-maintained, the owner will know exactly how many layers are on the roof, the age of the top layer and if new sheathing has been put down between the two layers.

-- Some owners will try to hide water damage in their bathrooms by recaulking and grouting tiles. But you can beat them at their own game by tapping on the tile where it hits the tub or shower floor. The tile should sound, and feel, solid. If it sounds hollow, give it a nudge to see if there is any give to the wall. If there is, something's going on behind there that isn't good.

-- Turn on the faucets on the bathroom sink and tub, and flush the toilet, all at the same time. If there is an appreciable drop in water flow, there could be a serious pressure problem, possibly caused by mineral buildup in old pipes.

-- Maybe 1 in 20 houses examined by the pros qualifies as well-maintained. But if the seller keeps a maintenance log backed by files of receipts, warranties, instruction manuals and color swatches, it's probably a safe bet that the house has been a labor of love.

Neatness counts, too. There should be access to all space, and nothing should be blocking the furnace or electrical panel.

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