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New Scoring Model Is More Inclusive

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 15th, 2013

Millions of would-be homebuyers who do not otherwise have credit scores -- that all-important snapshot of how they use credit -- will soon be able to generate one. They can use the latest version of a highly predictive scoring model that is still trying to find its footing in the mortgage marketplace.

Under the new VantageScore 3.0 model, predictive credit scores will reach as many as 35 million adults not covered by traditional scoring systems. That means so-called "thin file" homebuyers, who always trade in cash or have yet to establish credit, can now have a score, just like everyone else.

That's important because credit scores are the holy grail of the mortgage business. If you don't have a score, or if your score isn't high enough, many lenders don't want to touch you. If they do want to make you a loan, it will be at a somewhat higher rate.

Introduced in 2006, VantageScore was initially developed as a competitor to the better-known FICO scoring model by the nation's three major credit reporting agencies: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion.

Now an independently managed company, it is still looking for acceptance by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two quasi-government companies that purchase mortgages from primary lenders. Because the government-sponsored enterprises buy the lion's share of home loans, what they say pretty much goes. And as yet, they have declined to buy loans originated with a VantageScore.

But the latest version of the scoring program is likely to win the hearts and minds of more and more lenders, and that should put more pressure on Fannie and Freddie to loosen up.

Roughly one out of every three lenders receives applications from otherwise unscorable borrowers. When that happens, the borrower typically ends up in one of two buckets: high-risk or additional cost. Either way, the chances of being approved narrow significantly.

"Tens of millions of consumers are excluded from traditional scoring methodologies," says Barrett Burns, president of VantageScore Solutions. "Many of these consumers are not high-risk, but they are invisible to lenders who are having trouble effectively assessing their risk profiles."

According to research by Experian, typical unscorable consumers fall into prime credit tiers and hold professional or skilled-labor jobs. "This profile surprised us," says Burns. "They are not necessarily unemployed or downtrodden."

Another surprising fact: A significant number of unscorables -- about 41 percent -- own their homes, many free and clear. Typically, they've already paid off their mortgages. A good number are retired.

A significant number of unscorables are folks who always use cash. "Lots of people live on a cash basis," says Burns. "First- and second-generation Hispanics, for example, (are sometimes) distrustful of the banking environment. We didn't realize how many minorities don't use credit. Yet, they are penalized for being independent."

Of all the people who fall into the unscorable category, recent college graduates and young borrowers with thin files -- little or no credit activity -- are the hardest to reach. Nearly all are future homebuyers, and nearly all are difficult to score.

To rate these and other would-be borrowers, VantageScore will build a score for someone as soon as they start using credit. FICO won't report a score until the file contains six months' credit use. But VantageScore will create a score for a divorced person, immigrant or recent college graduate when they make their first car or credit card payment.

In another "analytic breakthrough" for infrequent credit users, VantageScore also now accepts older credit file information, which it says is almost as predictive of how the applicant handles credit as more frequent data. Typically, if there is no activity in someone's credit file within the previous six months, no score is generated. But "we look back 24 months and it's still high predictive," says Burns.

In addition, VantageScore now uses rent, utility and mobile phone payments in building its score -- when they are part of your credit records. These payments aren't reported to the credit bureaus to any significant extent, says Burns, but when they are, they again are highly predictive.

Another big improvement, and one many segments of the mortgage business have been howling for: Paid collections -- payments made through third-party collection agencies -- will not be included when generating a VantageScore.

Many people believe that as long as they are paying, even through a collection agency, it should count in their favor. But every time a payment is made, it becomes a brand-new delinquency in the eyes of the traditional credit score. Under the new VantageScore model, though, as long as you are paying a collection account on a regular basis, it won't count against you.

"We've proven that you get no mathematically predictable lift" with paid collections, says Burns.

Also, if you are behind on your medical bills, it won't count against you as long as the charges are still coming from your medical provider. But if your account is turned over to a collection agency, it falls into the above bucket.

To make it easier for borrowers to figure out why they didn't score higher, VantageScore has reduced the number of explanatory "reason codes" to 80 and rewritten them in plain English.

Finally, in a nod to FICO -- and to make its score more user-friendly -- the new VantageScore model rates people on a numerical scale from 300 to 850, the same as the competition.

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New vs Used: Viva La Difference

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 8th, 2013

You'd think that applying for a mortgage would be the same whether you are buying a newly built house or an existing one. But it's not, so buyers of brand-new homes need to understand the differences.

For one thing, the timeline can be far longer -- as much as six months, or sometimes even more. And the lender usually likes to see a little more earnest money on the table.

Typically with an existing home, the period from the application to closing is well-defined: usually 30 to 60 days. But when a new house is involved, the timeline is less clear-cut. It can be as quick as 15 days if you are buying an already finished inventory house -- and you have all your paperwork in order -- to as long as 180 days if you are starting from scratch.

That means that you might have to keep your financial nose clean for far longer than if you were buying an existing home. No big purchases that could cause your all-important credit score to drop, no moving big chunks of money around for whatever reason, no co-signing a loan for Junior's new car.

It's the seller who dictates how much of a deposit is required when the sales contract is signed. In the existing home market, the more money upfront, the more likely you are to catch the seller's eye as a serious buyer. But as little as $500 can sometimes hold the deal.

Builders, on the other hand, want more than the typical $1,000. Often, they require buyers to put up 5 percent of the contract price. And some builders want as much as 10 percent down before they will start construction.

Lenders want to see similarly large deposits on new houses, says Josh Moffitt, president of Silverton Mortgage in Atlanta.

When new construction is involved, Moffitt explains, lenders usually have to go through a "full-blown pre-approval" process. That means more work on their part.

A pre-approval also tends to remove as much as the risk as possible from the builder's shoulders – and the lender's -- and places it on yours. Since you have a larger down payment at risk, you are less likely to walk away from a house built to your order.

Pre-approval aside, the main concern of serious new homebuyers is rising interest rates. To protect themselves, the smart ones look for what's called "rate locks."

"Rate locks are important, especially when volatility is the norm," says the Silverton executive. "Up or down, we don't know. Going into a contract which doesn't close for four months creates a lot of exposure."

A rate lock guarantees that the interest rate you will end up paying will not be any higher than on the day you applied for your mortgage. Typically, a lender will hold the rate for 30 or 60 days. But after that, you are going to have to pay for what's known as an "extended lock."

How long and how much depends on your lender. But Moffitt says if the lender is quoting 4.5 percent today, you might have to pay an extra half-point to hold that rate for 180 days. Or the lender might agree not to go any higher than 5 percent if the hold is six months.

Whatever the cost, a rate lock is good protection. "You don't want to go to closing and find out your monthly payment is $300 more than you expected," Moffitt says.

It's also smart to make sure your rate lock contains a float-down rider. That way, if rates should recede during the time your new home is being built, the rate you eventually pay for financing will be lower. Again, good insurance.

Another difference between new and existing home processes is the appraisal. With an existing home, the appraiser looks over the property, finds comparable sales and comes up with a valuation. But with new construction, there is no house to appraise, perhaps not even a model.

Here, the appraiser makes his determination using the plans and specifications supplied by you and your builder, and comes up with a value based on what the house will look like when it is completed. Then, when construction is finished, he makes a final inspection to confirm the place is worth what he thought it was in the first place.

But the real challenge is finding acceptable comparables. In a major subdivision, where all the houses are pretty much alike, it's generally not difficult to find sales of similar houses. But nowadays, according to Moffitt, lenders don't want to see sales of properties that resemble the subject property as much as they do those of a more recent vintage. Or those that are close by.  

Consequently, neighborhoods, streets and even blocks can make a big difference in the appraiser's ultimate valuation. Or, if the lender says the most recent comps are more important than those that are equivalent to your house, sales from other school districts, on busy streets or lots not nearly as desirable as yours could come into play.

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The Power of Numbers

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | November 1st, 2013

Why do houses in Vancouver neighborhoods with a high percentage of Chinese residents tend to sell for more when the house number ends in 8? And why do they sell for less when the house number ends in 4?

According to a study from the University of British Columbia, when the number on the house ended in 4, houses sold at a 2.2 percent discount. The reason, according to UBC: In Mandarin, Cantonese and several other Chinese dialects, the pronunciation of the number four sounds very similar to the word for "death."

There's even a name for the fear of No. 4: It's called tetraphobia. And it's why Richmond Hill, Ont., passed a bylaw this summer outlawing the number four in all new street numbers.

At the same time, when the number above the door ends in 8, which is phonetically similar to the word for "prosperity" or "wealth" in many Asian tongues, the house tended to sell for a 2.5 percent premium.

Gamblers are often superstitious, which is why you'd be hard-pressed to find a decent-sized casino hotel in Las Vegas with floor numbers four, 14, 24, 34 and 40 to 49. And of course, numerous office buildings throughout the country do not have a 13th floor.

Home sellers may not be afraid of certain numbers, at least not all of them. But according to real estate search engine Trulia, setting a price and "lucky" numbers go hand-in-hand.

"Setting the right asking price for your home isn't all science and it isn't all art," says Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist. "Sellers and agents pick numbers to signal their strategy, and to appeal to the traditions and superstitions of local buyers."

After studying the asking prices of all the homes for sale on the Trulia site for about a year starting in October 2011, Kolko discovered that after zero, as in $200,000, the number nine was the most popular, as in $199,999.

That is, of the non-zero ending digits in list prices, a whopping 53 percent of all prices ended in nine. The next most common number was five. "No other digit comes close to 9 and 5," Kolko says.

As it turns out, nine, in the vernacular of home buyers and sellers, is less than zero -- by more than $1.

And when house prices are reduced, according to the Trulia study, the lower price is more likely to have nine as the final non-zero digit than it was in the original price. In other words, the economist reports, when sellers are more eager to sell, they are more likely to price with a nine than, say, a one or two.

But apparently it's only sellers of lower-cost homes who subscribe to this pricing theory. When houses are priced over $1 million, buyers can't be fooled into thinking they have nailed a bargain with just one digit. Which is why only one in four homes listed for seven figures or more had a nine as the last number.

At the same time, it appears that nine is only popular in some markets. In upstate New York, for example, nine was the last non-zero digit in more than two-thirds of the listings. But nine was in less than a third of the listings in places like El Paso, Texas; Tacoma, Wash., Seattle and Honolulu.

Triskaidekaphobia -- fear of the number 13 -- is much more widespread. It appeared in the asking price of just 13 percent of Trulia's listings. That's not just at the end of the asking price, but anywhere in it. The number 13 appeared in home prices less than the numbers 12 and 17.

Then, of course, there's lucky number seven. House prices in Nevada are more likely to have a seven in the list price than anywhere else in the country. And whereas prices with triple sevens were found in just eight out of every 10,000 listings in the Trulia study, such a combination is three times more likely in the Silver State.

The numbers three and six represent both the good and bad in Christian numerology. And as you may have guessed, they resonate most in the Bible Belt, which covers most of the South.

The number 316, as in John 3:16, was 27 percent more likely to appear somewhere in a Bible Belt home's asking price than in houses elsewhere.

And good wins out over evil, at least when pricing a house, for the number 666 showed up in less than one out of every 10,000 listings. But 666 was still more common in Bible Belt houses than anywhere else.

Back to the number eight: It's so important in Chinese culture that the Beijing Olympics officially began at 8:08:08 p.m. on Aug. 8, 2008 (8/8/08), and that the United Airlines flight from San Francisco to Beijing is numbered 888.

Same thing for house prices. In neighborhoods without a large Asian population, Trulia found that the number eight was the last non-zero numeral in just 4 percent of the listings. But in neighborhoods with a preponderance of Asian residents, eight was the last non-zero digit in 20 percent of the listings.

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