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Take Survey on Prices With a Grain of Salt

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 25th, 2012

House prices rose an average of nearly 10 percent in the first quarter, according to a government survey covering the country's largest metropolitan areas.

An anomaly? Absolutely. The average was skewed higher by some absurd numbers in several markets. There's no way the selling price of new and used homes jumped almost 60 percent in Detroit, or nearly 50 percent in Miami, in just one year!

At the same time, the figures reported for the first quarter as part of the monthly interest rate survey published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency shouldn't be dismissed out-of-hand. They are a signal that the housing market finally may be waking up.

Of course, a single three-month period does not make for a trend. But the fact that prices were higher in 23 of the 32 areas covered in the report -- 13 of them by double digits -- shows that buyers are starting to take advantage of record low loan rates.

That the survey registered such strong gains also indicates that houses in the upper price brackets are starting to move again in many places, in many cases at a faster clip than those in the lower ranges.

Those are repeat buyers, homeowners who must sell their current residences before they can move up the ladder. They are the key to a smoothly running housing market: As they buy new homes, they sell their old homes, which means folks below them on the affordability scale can start buying, too.

Take that all the way down to the ladder's first rung, and it is a signal that first-time buyers, the rookies who have never owned before, are finding some wonderful opportunities that haven't presented themselves in ages.

Maybe sellers are finally getting real about the values of their homes. Maybe the inventory of places for sale has been winnowed down so much that buyers are fighting over the few good houses still left on the market. Or possibly both buyers and sellers are sensing a bottom and are pulling their respective triggers.

The important take-away from this or any other indicator of housing prices is not to be fooled by rip-and-read headlines and news reports that mention only national or regional price trends. Those kinds of reports can do you in.

Whether you are a buyer or seller, you need to find out what's going on in your region, your town, your community, maybe even your block.

You want to know the average number of days houses are on the market before they sell, which will tell you the velocity of your particular market. If houses are moving faster than normal, buyers might want to jump in more quickly.

You'll also want to know how many houses are for sale in your price range. If it is more than usual, there are probably still bargains to be had. But if the unsold inventory is low, the best deals -- and the best houses -- are probably already gone, and prices will start moving up, if they haven't already. Even for the dogs.

To get an idea which way the market is trending in your neck of the woods, you can start right here with the latest FHFA figures. They show that the average selling price of both new and used homes rose 9.7 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

Drilling down, the survey found that prices were up in 23 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas and down in nine. But again, things may be different in your submarket, so find a real estate professional who can read the key housing tea leaves to paint a more exact picture. In the meantime, look at the FHFA's survey, which is more market-specific than just about any other index published for general consumption. Others delve deeper, but they are too detailed for national news outlets and often too tough to find for local reporters.

Of the nine markets that registered falling prices, three of those declines were double-digit. But drops such as nearly 17 percent in Pittsburgh, almost 16 percent in Cincinnati and 10 percent in Cleveland could be aberrations, too.

Most likely, the survey is showing a price correction from previous periods when there were an unusually high number of sales in the higher price ranges. Now, prices are falling back to normal. These are generally the less expensive of the big metro areas, so it's also possible there were an inordinate number of lower-price deals in the January-March period.

Likewise, such ungodly price gains of 59 percent in Detroit, 50 percent in Miami, 46 percent in Chicago, 41 percent in Kansas City and 32 percent in Orlando also have to be taken with a grain of sawdust. Year-over-year gains like those didn't even occur at the height of the housing boom.

As usual, San Francisco is the nation's most expensive city for housing. The average in the Bay Area was $636,000 in the first quarter, an increase of 9.2 percent from $582,300 in the same period last year.

California's two other big markets -- San Diego and Los Angeles – rank second and third on the Top 10 list. In San Diego, the average rose 3.7 percent, from $506,400 to $525,100, while in LA, it was up 6.4 percent, from $481,000 to $511,900.

In something of a surprise, Seattle now ranks as the nation's fourth most expensive housing market at $473,000, a gain of 18.1 percent from $400,500 a year ago.

Washington rounds out the top five at $445,800, a decline of 3.9 percent from $464,000.

No. 6 Boston and No. 7 New York also reported declines. In Beantown, the dip was a slight 0.8 percent, from $438,700 to $435,300. But in the Big Apple, the drop was a more significant 9.8 percent, from $475,900 to $429,300.

Miami is the only other market above the $400,000 benchmark, but that's only because the average there rocketed 49.8 percent, from $279,600 to $418,800.

Rounding out the Top 10 are Denver and Virginia Beach. The average in the Mile High City is $385,400, a 19 percent jump from $323,800 12 months ago, while the average in the sea-level Virginia town rose 7.1 percent, from $348,600 to $373,300.

The cheapest big-city market? Right now, it's Pittsburgh, where the average dropped 16.9 percent, from $227,700 a year ago to $189,200 in this year's first quarter.

AVERAGE SALES PRICES: First Quarter

(New and Used Homes in Thousands of Dollars)

City 2011 2012 Percentage Change

Atlanta GA $304.3 $325.9 7.1

Boston-Worcester MA 438.7 435.3 (-0.8)

Chicago IL-Gary IN 201.2 293.8 46.0

Cincinnati OH 289.7 244.3 (-15.7)

Cleveland-Akron OH 225.5 203.2 (-10.0)

Columbus OH 215.4 262.4 21.8

Dallas-Fort Worth TX 302.6 330.2 9.1

Denver-Boulder CO 323.8 385.4 19.0

Detroit-Ann Arbor MI 168.3 267.9 59.2 Houston-Galveston TX 297.6 367.7 23.6

Indianapolis IN 231.5 260.9 12.7

Kansas City MO-KS 224.8 317.1 41.1

Las Vegas NV 219.2 221.1 0.9

Los Angeles-Riverside CA 481.0 511.9 6.4

Miami-Fort Lauderdale FL 279.6 418.8 49.8

Milwaukee-Racine WI 230.7 300.8 30.4

Minneapolis-St. Paul MN 273.3 247.1 (-9.6)

New York-Long Island NY 475.9 429.3 (-9.8)

Orlando FL 214.4 283.6 32.3

Philadelphia PA-Wilmington DE 306.3 351.1 14.6

Phoenix-Mesa AZ 254.4 285.6 12.3

Pittsburgh PA 227.7 189.2 (-16.9)

Portland-Salem OR 345.1 366.2 6.1

Sacramento CA 297.2 325.7 9.6

San Antonio TX 208.0 201.1 (-3.3)

San Diego CA 506.4 525.1 3.7

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA 582.3 636.0 9.2

Seattle-Tacoma WA 400.5 473.0 18.1

St. Louis MO-IL 253.3 275.7 8.8

Tampa-St. Petersburg FL 250.6 244.3 (-2.5)

Virginia Beach-Norfolk VA 348.6 373.3 7.1

Washington DC-Baltimore MD 464.0 445.8 (-3.9)

U.S. Average (32 Cities) $307.6 $337.5 9.7

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

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A Clean House Is a Best-Seller

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 18th, 2012

When it comes to the little things that sellers do to make their homes stand out from the competition, a new splash of paint is usually at the top of the list. Sprucing up the front yard and removing the clutter you have learned to live with over the years also rank high.

But the No. 1 step you can take, according to a recent survey of real estate agents, is cleaning the place from top to bottom. Spending a few hundred bucks for cleaning supplies, rolling up your sleeves and getting to work will pay huge dividends, dollar for dollar, according to nearly all the 500 agents who participated in the HomeGain poll.

Actually, cleaning has ranked as the top home improvement suggested by realty professionals ever since HomeGain began asking the question in 2003. In the latest survey, the agents said spending $400 on cleaning is likely to gain sellers $2,000 more at closing. That's a 400 percent return on investment.

Of course, there is clean and then there is really CLEAN! Here are some tips gleaned mainly from the folks at The Maids, a residential cleaning service with about 150 franchises in 40 states, with suggestions from Mary Moppins thrown in for good measure:

-- You may not look up when you walk around your house, but would-be buyers do. They look everywhere, so knock down any cobwebs, clean the blades on the ceiling fans and remove the dust that has built up on the top of window and door frames, as well as other places it tends to accumulate.

Now look down and clean your baseboards.

-- Wash the windows, inside and out. Professional house cleaner Mary Findley, aka the aforementioned Mary Moppins, cleans windows with a 32-ounce spray bottle filled with 1/3 cup white vinegar, 1/4 cup rubbing alcohol and the rest distilled water.

For best results, wash on a cloudy day. Sunlight dries the glass quickly, causing streaks.

-- You'll want to shower your place with light to show it off, especially at night, so remove the bugs that have accumulated in your light fixtures and clean the glass. Replace the bulbs with new ones. That way, Findley says, you won't have a burnout during a showing.

-- Clean the stove and oven. If you have burner drip trays, replace them. The cost is minimal, and they will make the range sparkle. As an alternative, Findley suggests placing dirty drip pans in a plastic bag with a 50/50 mixture of water and ammonia. Let sit for a day, then scour and rinse.

Don't overlook the range hood -- not just the top, but also underneath where grease tends to accumulate. Spray foaming tile and tub cleaner, wait a few minutes and wipe.

-- Window treatments tend to trap dust and odors. Dry-clean or at least vacuum drapes. Roll up blinds to remove them. Then loosen and wash in a tub of warm, soapy water with a cup of white vinegar. Rinse and lay flat on a towel outside to dry.

Alternatively, hang the blinds outside with the slats facing down. Spray from bottom to top with foaming tub and tile cleaner, a Findley favorite. Sponge off with water, then flip them over, turn the slats in the other direction and repeat. "Sparkling blinds in 15 minutes," Findley says.

-- Eliminate lingering odors in the dishwasher by running it with a couple tablespoons of Tang, the powdered breakfast drink.

-- Decluttering goes along with cleaning. Since lookers will peer in your kitchen cabinets and drawers, take everything out, pack away what you're not using and neatly restack what's left -- but not before wiping the shelves and drawers clean.

-- Cabinet doors don't need to be replaced or resurfaced, just cleaned, Findley says. Start with a wood cleaner to deep-clean the doors, than apply a wood restorer to replenish the finish.

-- Shampoo carpets and then vacuum daily. "Nothing screams 'clean' like visible carpet pile lines," according to The Maids.

Wood and tile floors should be mopped. Clean the grout, too. If your linoleum floor no longer holds a shine, strip it with a janitorial-grade wax remover and redo with janitorial non-yellowing wax, which Findley says holds up longer than most store waxes. That way, if it takes longer than expected to sell, at least you won't have to rewax.

-- In the bathroom, clean showers, sinks and tubs. Remove hard-water spots and soap scum by spraying them with undiluted, heated white vinegar. Let soak 15 minutes before scrubbing.

Alternatively, Findley suggests applying a concentrated orange-based cleaner full-strength. Give it at least an hour to dissolve soap residue. Then use a white scrub pad -- only white; any other color will scratch the surface -- to remove the buildup.

-- To get rid of water rings in the toilet bowl, drain the bowl and saturate several heavy-duty shop paper towels with either orange cleaner or white vinegar. Plaster the sides of the bowl with the towels and let sit for several hours. For a quicker solution, try the stuff you use to clean tile grout.

-- Wash shower curtains and liners. Wash glass doors as you would showers and tubs above. Treat fiberglass walls with a Molly Moppins product called Gel Gloss, available in the bathtub section of hardware stores.

Hit mildew with straight hydrogen peroxide as opposed to bleach, the fumes of which can be overpowering in small spaces.

-- Walls and ceilings should be dusted. For textured surfaces and rough wood, slip three lint roller tubes over a paint roller and roll.

-- Wipe down front and back doors, including screens. Remove oil spots from garage floor and driveway. Polish doorknobs, hinges and drawer handles, and clean your trash cans.

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Lenders Sniff Out Dishonest Applicants

The Housing Scene by by Lew Sichelman
by Lew Sichelman
The Housing Scene | May 11th, 2012

Thinking about fudging on your application for a mortgage?

Maybe inflating your income a tad? Checking the box to indicate you're going to live there when you're really not? Exaggerating your job description?

Don't.

Not long ago, people could get away with little white lies like these to obtain financing. But not anymore.

Nowadays, the tools are in place to nab fibbers who just want to buy a house, as well as out-and-out perjurers looking to bilk lenders out of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

There are "more fraud checks than ever, and it's on every loan, not just a sample," says David Kittle, a former lender from Kentucky who chaired the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2009.

More important, perhaps, the focus now is on preventing fraud rather than dealing with it after the fact. "The responsibility for catching fraud is definitely moving up the loan production chain," says Bruce Backer, president of LoanSifter, a pricing engine that lenders use to make sure they comply with federal regulations.

"If we let the money go out the door," adds David Montoya, inspector general at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, "we're pretty much chasing the wind."

Sometimes the fraud check is as simple as a quick call to the customer right before the loan is closed to verify information supplied on the loan application. Such a call to an otherwise unsuspecting borrower can sometimes uncover a lie perpetrated by a corrupt loan officer who's in it for the commission -- or more.

"Nobody wants anyone else to talk to their customers, but we do it in a conversational, nonconfrontational way," says Kittle, who now works for IMARC, a firm based in Santa Ana, Calif., that provides post-funding quality control audit services.

If the chat goes something like this -- "Are you borrowing $500,000?" "No, I want to borrow only $300,000," or "Do you earn $200,000?" "No, I make only $100,000" -- the auditor can stop the process in its tracks. You don't get tagged as a con artist, the dishonest loan originator and his cohorts don't fatten their wallets and the lender doesn't lose any money.

In other cases, lenders are using sophisticated databanks to spot the crooks. "There's a tremendous wealth of data being deployed," says Becky Walzak, a quality assurance consultant based in Deerfield Beach, Fla. "There are tons of databases available to validate the information you give us."

For example, one website provides salary data on the type of work you do so the lender can determine if you are overstating your income. If you say you earn $250,000 a year but the site indicates the typical wage for your position in your town is just half that, it's a red flag that something might be amiss.

Another site provides historical wage data, and yet another checks the information supplied by self-employed borrowers, including whether the borrower's company exists, who the principals are, the number of employees and the annual revenues.

"You can't lie about income anymore," says Walzak. "There are too many ways we can find out whether or not you are telling the truth."

There also are sites that will tell lenders whether there are judgments against you or liens against other properties you might own, while others reveal the number of properties you own, when you bought them and for how much. And there are systems available to review appraisals to spot inflated valuations.

Platinum Data Solutions in Aliso Viejo, Calif., offers lenders a comprehensive review and valuation system that, among other things, looks for hidden relationships between the buyer and seller. CEO Phil Huff says he's working on a program that will search out collusion between real estate agents, loan officers, appraisers, title attorneys and others in the lending food chain.

In addition, Fred Melgaard, executive vice president of DRI Management Systems in Newport Beach, Calif., says his firm has plans to offer scorecards on all vendors and service providers, including individual appraisers and real estate agents. And that's on top of real-time -- less than 60 seconds -- credit reports, automated bankruptcy notices and up-to-the minute lien watch services that let lenders know what you may be doing with other lenders.

"If you shine enough light in the little dark corners, the cockroaches will run," Melgaard says.

Even the Internal Revenue Service is getting into the act. The IRS already electronically delivers copies of would-be borrowers' tax returns to lenders so they can verify incomes. Soon the agency will be speeding up the process -- and making it more secure -- by switching to e-signatures and eliminating the paper version of the form borrowers sign that allows lenders access to their records.

None of this is to say that mortgage fraud is being eradicated. Hardly. The FBI pegs the cost of mortgage fraud at roughly $3 billion a year. And that's a "very conservative" figure of the losses to lenders and investors, concedes Christa Greco, a senior intelligence analyst at the agency.

At the same time, though, the most recent figures from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network indicate that lenders are becoming more adept at uncovering fraudulent loans before putting them on their books. Indeed, in 40 percent of the suspicious activity reports submitted to the network in fiscal 2011, the lender turned down the applicant -- whether it was for a new mortgage, a refinancing or a short sale -- because it smelled fraud.

So again, a word to the wise: Don't lie, even a little. Lenders don't catch everybody, but they are getting better at sniffing out fraud. And the next one they nab could be you.

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