Why, given its vast accomplishments, doesn't Tunisia match its economic and social advances with political openness? Is it really in the midst of changing to a true multi-party state -- or will it follow its mixed model too long and lose its chance to become the example for Arab, North African and Islamic societies?

To the Tunisian ministers and leadership -- to a man and woman, some of the most superior people I have met in the region -- there is no question: They are on the move, and nothing is going to stop them.

"It's a process," Montassar Ouali, minister of information and communications technologies, explained to me in a lengthy interview. "In terms of anchoring democracy, everything that Ben Ali does is clear. All the steps are forward. But we can't afford to take risks. All our assets could disappear. We have to constantly consolidate what is behind us."

That is, in a nutshell, the Tunisian way. Ben Ali uses phrases oddly prudent for the Arabic-speaking world, known for its rhetorical effusiveness and impetuosity. Such as, "Stability, Tolerance and Solidarity." Or, "Progress, Modernity and Invulnerability."

The interesting thing about Tunisia at this pregnant moment, as it looks forward to joining Europe in a full and open economic agreement in 2008, is that you can prove a number of predictions.

When it was reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was going to attend an international meeting in Tunis earlier this year, the demonstrations that resulted were put down by the police clumsily. Yet a hunger strike by journalists calling for more press freedom during the recent U.N. summit here was handled well. (Israelis were welcomed at the summit, but the hunger strike was not reported in the local press.)

The government points out that the longtime censorship that has so stymied the development of a real press here has now been abolished. But critics say it is still difficult to get licenses to open new, privately owned papers.

Other steps forward include Tunisia's new relationship with the International Red Cross, which is reportedly going very well. Also, President Ben Ali recently took four publicly announced sick days, showing to many that he does not consider himself indispensable and might leave after this third term.

My own bet, after three interesting interviews with the president over the years, is that he is intent upon staying in power until 2008, when he will see the fruition of his work to bring Tunisia into Europe's huge markets. Then, Tunisia's "vulnerability" (a fragile country between Algeria, Libya and the Sahara) will be alleviated, and he will step down.

In addition to other factors, it would be impossible to run a state that was closed politically after it had made the profound internal changes the European Union demands and Tunisians begin doing business massively with Europe.

Since 1992, when I first visited here to report on their development model, I decided to return from time to time to use it as an example of what could -- or couldn't -- be done. This became ever more important, since almost all of the rest of the Middle East was engulfed in one kind of chaos or another. I have personally witnessed great, if always evolutionary, progress, built solidly from within.

Now we'll see. If Tunisia continues to make the next steps, there is every reason to hope that the Middle East, now searching for ways to develop, can learn from it.