uExpress.com: Donna Brazile by Donna Brazile -- (02/02/2012) brz120202 DONNA BRAZILE by Donna Brazile-->TEN-DAY SHELF LIFEAny competitor will tell you that there comes a critical moment in the contest -- a moment that challenges one's character. To stay in the fight, one must either transcend the assault or embrace the tactics. The other choice is to withdraw.John McCain's moment came in the 2000 South Carolina primary, where the in-your-face dirty politics of the Bush campaign overwhelmed him. The Arizona Republic newspaper considered that primary "a low-water mark in presidential campaigns." And it was -- until the 2012 Florida primary. Republican presidential nomintation front-runner Mitt Romney also had his "that moment" in South Carolina: With victories in Iowa (he thought) and New Hampshire, he expected a similar campaign. But Gingrich, in a 2000 deja vu, engaged in a South Carolina smack-down, and the polls swung his way.Romney, though, learned the lesson and taught a master at the snide and the sneer a thing or two about counter-punching with easy put-downs and sound bites: Florida campaign ads overall -- via television, radio, newspapers and mail -- were 92 percent negative; Romney's were 99 percent negative. In ad after ad, Romney attacked Gingrich as a poor leader, and questioned Gingrich's honesty and stability. Yes, Romney learned -- and probably threw more mud than in any campaign in recent memory.Rick Santorum has repeatedly said that the Republican primary campaign is sickening everyone with its negatives. But Gingrich and Romney know, as McCain learned in 2000, that negative advertising works. However, negative advertising doesn't work by itself. Both men made mistakes in the debate that reinforced their opponent's ads. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the out-of-work NASA workers, but, to quote a Texas senator, Gingrich is no JFK, and the voters saw his Moon Colony idea for what Romney called it -- outlandish and expensive. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the Hispanic immigrant vote, but Romney pulled the plug on his "let grandma stay" idea.Romney and Gingrich might learn another lesson from Florida and South Carolina, a truism in politics: Voters like to bandwagon, and creating a bandwagon sometimes requires smoke, mirrors and a rabbit-in-a-hat. Most "very conservative" Republican voters -- the majority -- hesitate still to support Romney. No matter that Romney may represent a minority in the party; he also has behind him the "Republican establishment." And that establishment nearly extinguished the former speaker, such is its political power.That's when Gingrich tried to fabricate some bandwagon magic, giving what many felt was an odd concession speech in Florida. He talked as if he were making an election night victory speech. For the presidency! I think it was calculated. It was a Gingrich sleight-of-hand, making a concession speech disappear and producing, presto digito, the image of a winner. The "46 States to Go" signs countered any drop-out talk. That's Gingrich.It seems that every 10 days, something new happens on the Republican political scene. Ten days have become the normal shelf life for a Republican front-runner or also-ran because, ironically, Republicans have been looking for a conservative Obama. That's one bit of witchcraft that won't work. Bachmann, Cain and Perry were 15-minute-famers on the stage, not the polished performers conservatives had been promised. So, another lesson from Florida: most Republicans are still waiting for their "White Knight." Someone who can carry the torch for them on beating Obama, the so-called liberal establishment, and others they have erroneously come to blame for the country's woes.Romney will likely secure the nomination either when a couple more candidates drop out or sometime in late March or early April when a sufficient number of states have had a chance to weigh in. For now, Romney didn't win the conservative vote in Florida; it fell to him by default. If no White Knight shows up -- and that is the likelihood -- conservatives will go with Romney, provided they feel he can beat Obama. That's his only appeal to them. Successful illusion -- or delusion -- requires a lot of hype. Finally, Florida demonstrated that the tea party is not a monolithic movement, but composed of several subgroups. The most volatile group -- the one that caused chaos in town hall meetings in 2009, the birthers, the Obama-haters -- belongs to Gingrich. Those tea partiers who want America to forego its world leadership, and who channel their inner Patrick Henry, belong to Ron Paul. Those who want a "nice" candidate who excoriates the morally lax belong to Rick Santorum. Given this mix, there may be an opportunity for a third party if the Republican nominee doesn't please. But take the Donald off the list. He's backing Romney. In the next 10 days we will learn the winners of Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota and, yes, CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee, which meets in Washington this coming week. There is still plenty of time for more volatility.Meanwhile, Ron Paul feels he can do better in the caucuses. I wouldn't underestimate a man who has come in a respectable third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. (Donna Brazile is a senior Democratic strategist, a political commentator and contributor to CNN and ABC News, and a contributing columnist to Ms. Magazine and O, the Oprah Magazine.)COPYRIGHT 2012 DONNA BRAZILEDISTRIBUTED BY UNIVERSAL UCLICK FOR UFS

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brz120202 DONNA BRAZILE by Donna Brazile-->TEN-DAY SHELF LIFEAny competitor will tell you that there comes a critical moment in the contest -- a moment that challenges one's character. To stay in the fight, one must either transcend the assault or embrace the tactics. The other choice is to withdraw.John McCain's moment came in the 2000 South Carolina primary, where the in-your-face dirty politics of the Bush campaign overwhelmed him. The Arizona Republic newspaper considered that primary "a low-water mark in presidential campaigns." And it was -- until the 2012 Florida primary. Republican presidential nomintation front-runner Mitt Romney also had his "that moment" in South Carolina: With victories in Iowa (he thought) and New Hampshire, he expected a similar campaign. But Gingrich, in a 2000 deja vu, engaged in a South Carolina smack-down, and the polls swung his way.Romney, though, learned the lesson and taught a master at the snide and the sneer a thing or two about counter-punching with easy put-downs and sound bites: Florida campaign ads overall -- via television, radio, newspapers and mail -- were 92 percent negative; Romney's were 99 percent negative. In ad after ad, Romney attacked Gingrich as a poor leader, and questioned Gingrich's honesty and stability. Yes, Romney learned -- and probably threw more mud than in any campaign in recent memory.Rick Santorum has repeatedly said that the Republican primary campaign is sickening everyone with its negatives. But Gingrich and Romney know, as McCain learned in 2000, that negative advertising works. However, negative advertising doesn't work by itself. Both men made mistakes in the debate that reinforced their opponent's ads. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the out-of-work NASA workers, but, to quote a Texas senator, Gingrich is no JFK, and the voters saw his Moon Colony idea for what Romney called it -- outlandish and expensive. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the Hispanic immigrant vote, but Romney pulled the plug on his "let grandma stay" idea.Romney and Gingrich might learn another lesson from Florida and South Carolina, a truism in politics: Voters like to bandwagon, and creating a bandwagon sometimes requires smoke, mirrors and a rabbit-in-a-hat. Most "very conservative" Republican voters -- the majority -- hesitate still to support Romney. No matter that Romney may represent a minority in the party; he also has behind him the "Republican establishment." And that establishment nearly extinguished the former speaker, such is its political power.That's when Gingrich tried to fabricate some bandwagon magic, giving what many felt was an odd concession speech in Florida. He talked as if he were making an election night victory speech. For the presidency! I think it was calculated. It was a Gingrich sleight-of-hand, making a concession speech disappear and producing, presto digito, the image of a winner. The "46 States to Go" signs countered any drop-out talk. That's Gingrich.It seems that every 10 days, something new happens on the Republican political scene. Ten days have become the normal shelf life for a Republican front-runner or also-ran because, ironically, Republicans have been looking for a conservative Obama. That's one bit of witchcraft that won't work. Bachmann, Cain and Perry were 15-minute-famers on the stage, not the polished performers conservatives had been promised. So, another lesson from Florida: most Republicans are still waiting for their "White Knight." Someone who can carry the torch for them on beating Obama, the so-called liberal establishment, and others they have erroneously come to blame for the country's woes.Romney will likely secure the nomination either when a couple more candidates drop out or sometime in late March or early April when a sufficient number of states have had a chance to weigh in. For now, Romney didn't win the conservative vote in Florida; it fell to him by default. If no White Knight shows up -- and that is the likelihood -- conservatives will go with Romney, provided they feel he can beat Obama. That's his only appeal to them. Successful illusion -- or delusion -- requires a lot of hype. Finally, Florida demonstrated that the tea party is not a monolithic movement, but composed of several subgroups. The most volatile group -- the one that caused chaos in town hall meetings in 2009, the birthers, the Obama-haters -- belongs to Gingrich. Those tea partiers who want America to forego its world leadership, and who channel their inner Patrick Henry, belong to Ron Paul. Those who want a "nice" candidate who excoriates the morally lax belong to Rick Santorum. Given this mix, there may be an opportunity for a third party if the Republican nominee doesn't please. But take the Donald off the list. He's backing Romney. In the next 10 days we will learn the winners of Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota and, yes, CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee, which meets in Washington this coming week. There is still plenty of time for more volatility.Meanwhile, Ron Paul feels he can do better in the caucuses. I wouldn't underestimate a man who has come in a respectable third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. (Donna Brazile is a senior Democratic strategist, a political commentator and contributor to CNN and ABC News, and a contributing columnist to Ms. Magazine and O, the Oprah Magazine.)COPYRIGHT 2012 DONNA BRAZILEDISTRIBUTED BY UNIVERSAL UCLICK FOR UFS

02/02/2012

brz120202

TEN-DAY SHELF LIFE

Any competitor will tell you that there comes a critical moment in the contest -- a moment that challenges one's character. To stay in the fight, one must either transcend the assault or embrace the tactics. The other choice is to withdraw.

John McCain's moment came in the 2000 South Carolina primary, where the in-your-face dirty politics of the Bush campaign overwhelmed him. The Arizona Republic newspaper considered that primary "a low-water mark in presidential campaigns." And it was -- until the 2012 Florida primary.

Republican presidential nomintation front-runner Mitt Romney also had his "that moment" in South Carolina: With victories in Iowa (he thought) and New Hampshire, he expected a similar campaign. But Gingrich, in a 2000 deja vu, engaged in a South Carolina smack-down, and the polls swung his way.

Romney, though, learned the lesson and taught a master at the snide and the sneer a thing or two about counter-punching with easy put-downs and sound bites: Florida campaign ads overall -- via television, radio, newspapers and mail -- were 92 percent negative; Romney's were 99 percent negative. In ad after ad, Romney attacked Gingrich as a poor leader, and questioned Gingrich's honesty and stability. Yes, Romney learned -- and probably threw more mud than in any campaign in recent memory.

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Rick Santorum has repeatedly said that the Republican primary campaign is sickening everyone with its negatives. But Gingrich and Romney know, as McCain learned in 2000, that negative advertising works. However, negative advertising doesn't work by itself. Both men made mistakes in the debate that reinforced their opponent's ads. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the out-of-work NASA workers, but, to quote a Texas senator, Gingrich is no JFK, and the voters saw his Moon Colony idea for what Romney called it -- outlandish and expensive. Gingrich attempted to appeal to the Hispanic immigrant vote, but Romney pulled the plug on his "let grandma stay" idea.

Romney and Gingrich might learn another lesson from Florida and South Carolina, a truism in politics: Voters like to bandwagon, and creating a bandwagon sometimes requires smoke, mirrors and a rabbit-in-a-hat. Most "very conservative" Republican voters -- the majority -- hesitate still to support Romney. No matter that Romney may represent a minority in the party; he also has behind him the "Republican establishment." And that establishment nearly extinguished the former speaker, such is its political power.

That's when Gingrich tried to fabricate some bandwagon magic, giving what many felt was an odd concession speech in Florida. He talked as if he were making an election night victory speech. For the presidency! I think it was calculated. It was a Gingrich sleight-of-hand, making a concession speech disappear and producing, presto digito, the image of a winner. The "46 States to Go" signs countered any drop-out talk. That's Gingrich.

It seems that every 10 days, something new happens on the Republican political scene. Ten days have become the normal shelf life for a Republican front-runner or also-ran because, ironically, Republicans have been looking for a conservative Obama. That's one bit of witchcraft that won't work. Bachmann, Cain and Perry were 15-minute-famers on the stage, not the polished performers conservatives had been promised.

So, another lesson from Florida: most Republicans are still waiting for their "White Knight." Someone who can carry the torch for them on beating Obama, the so-called liberal establishment, and others they have erroneously come to blame for the country's woes.

Romney will likely secure the nomination either when a couple more candidates drop out or sometime in late March or early April when a sufficient number of states have had a chance to weigh in. For now, Romney didn't win the conservative vote in Florida; it fell to him by default.

If no White Knight shows up -- and that is the likelihood -- conservatives will go with Romney, provided they feel he can beat Obama. That's his only appeal to them. Successful illusion -- or delusion -- requires a lot of hype.

Finally, Florida demonstrated that the tea party is not a monolithic movement, but composed of several subgroups. The most volatile group -- the one that caused chaos in town hall meetings in 2009, the birthers, the Obama-haters -- belongs to Gingrich. Those tea partiers who want America to forego its world leadership, and who channel their inner Patrick Henry, belong to Ron Paul. Those who want a "nice" candidate who excoriates the morally lax belong to Rick Santorum. Given this mix, there may be an opportunity for a third party if the Republican nominee doesn't please. But take the Donald off the list. He's backing Romney. In the next 10 days we will learn the winners of Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota and, yes, CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee, which meets in Washington this coming week. There is still plenty of time for more volatility.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul feels he can do better in the caucuses. I wouldn't underestimate a man who has come in a respectable third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire.

(Donna Brazile is a senior Democratic strategist, a political commentator and contributor to CNN and ABC News, and a contributing columnist to Ms. Magazine and O, the Oprah Magazine.)

DISTRIBUTED BY UNIVERSAL UCLICK FOR UFS